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Dr Paul Ritchie

Emergent Constraints & Tipping Points workshop

In November 2020 we hosted an online collaborative workshop to bring together Climate Scientists, Mathematicians and Ecologists to answer key questions around the relationships between the variability and sensitivity of the Earth System and its subcomponents. The first part of the workshop discussed proposed emergent constraints on future projections, many of which are based-on assumed relationships between sensitivity and variability. The second part of the workshop examined potential climate tipping points, in both observational data and climate model projections. The programme is given below and recordings of the presentations can be found using the links attached to the talk titles:


Emergent Constraints Presentations

Monday 23rd November

16:00 – 16:15: Peter Cox & Mark Williamson: Welcome and introduction to the workshop

16:15 – 16:45: Manuel Schlund: Emergent constraints on ECS and carbon cycle feedbacks in CMIP6

16:45 – 17:00: James Annan: What can we learn about climate sensitivity from interannual variability?

17:00 – 17:15: Rebecca Varney: A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming

17:15 – 17:30: Nick Watkins: On Generalized Langevin Dynamics and the Modelling of Global Mean Temperature

17:30 – 18:00: Break

18:00 – 18:30: Peter Caldwell: Evaluating and combining emergent constraints for climate sensitivity

18:30 – 18:45: Benjamin Sanderson: Addressing structural errors in emergent constraints

18:45 – 19:00: Aurélien Ribes: Making climate projections conditional on historical observations


Tuesday 24th November

16:00 – 16:30: Femke Nijsse: Emergent constraints on transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

16:30 – 16:45: Tim Palmer: Very short-range prediction skill as an emergent constraint

16:45 – 17:00: Kasia Tokarska: Observational and emergent constraints on future warming in CMIP6 models

17:00 – 17:15: Richard Wood: Does recent warming constrain long term climate sensitivity?

17:15 – 17:30: Ryan Padrón: Controls of land carbon sink projections from CMIP6 models

17:30 – 18:00: Break

18:00 – 18:15: Jens Terhaar: Emergent constraints on the Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake

18:15 – 18:45: Chad Thackeray: Assessing prior emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback in CMIP6

18:45 – 19:00: Nicholas Lutsko: Do Low Cloud-Based Emergent Constraints Fail in CMIP6?


Tipping Points Presentations

Wednesday 25th November

14:00 – 14:30: Marten Scheffer: Lost Attraction: tipping humans

14:30 – 14:45: Joe Clarke: The Compost Bomb in the Continuum Limit

14:45 – 15:00: Eoin O’Sullivan: Non-Obvious Thresholds in the Compost Bomb Model

15:00 – 15:15: Niklas Boers: Precursor signals for abrupt transitions in Earth system dynamics

15:15 – 15:45: Break

15:45 – 16:15: Ulrike Feudel: How to study tipping phenomena in highly multistable systems?

16:15 – 16:45: Ricarda Winkelmann: Beyond gradual change: Tipping points in Antarctica

16:45 – 17:00: Paul Ritchie: Overshooting Tipping Point Thresholds in A Changing Climate


Thursday 26th November

14:00 – 14:30: Peter Ditlevsen: What we learn about tipping points from past climate and models

14:30 – 14:45: Frank Kwasniok: Data-driven modelling and prediction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse

14:45 – 15:00: Johannes Lohmann: Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt

15:00 – 15:15: Hassan Alkhayuon: Phase-sensitive tipping: cyclic ecosystems subject to contemporary climate

15:15 – 15:30: Cris Hasan: Spatiotemporal stability of travelling waves in a Rock-Paper-Scissors model

15:30 – 16:00: Break

16:00 – 16:30: Tim Lenton: Tipping positive change

16:30 – 16:45: Nico Wunderling: Network dynamics of drought-induced tipping cascades in the Amazon rainforest

16:45 – 17:00: Concluding Remarks (Peter Cox)