Skip to main content

Mathematics and Statistics

Photo of Prof Mark P. Baldwin

Prof Mark P. Baldwin

Professor of Climate Science

 M.Baldwin@exeter.ac.uk

 (Streatham) 6567

 01392 726567


Overview

Prof Mark Baldwin holds a chair in Climate Science. He joined University of Exeter in 2012, having work previously at a private nonprofit research firm in the Seattle area, Northwest Research Associates (NWRA), where he was a Vice President and Director. NWRA is a private company that specializes in basic and applied research in the geophysical sciences.

His research is focused on the role of the stratosphere in the climate system, in particular how ozone loss, increasing greenhouse gases, and natural variability of the stratosphere affect surface weather and climate on a time scale for ten days to centuries. He is particularly interested in understanding the dynamical mechanisms by which changes to the stratosphere can have substantial effects at Earth's surface, as well as exploiting this relationship to improve weather forecasts.

Membership of professional bodies

Fellow of the Leadership Foundation (FLF)

Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society

Former Co-Chief Editor of the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Links with other Universities

External Examiner: University of Oxford, University of Cambridge, University of Reading, Colorado State University

Nationality

United States

Administrative responsibilities

Assistant Director (Research), Global Systems Institute (GSI)

Qualifications

BS (double major) in Mathematics and Atmospheric Science, University of Albany

MS Atmospheric Science, University of Albany

MS Applied Mathematics, University of Washington

PhD Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

Certified Consulting Meteorologist

Back to top


Publications

Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.

| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2018 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1995 | 1994 | 1992 | 1991 | 1989 | 1988 | 1985 | 1984 | 1982 |

2022

2021

  • Baldwin MP, Ayarzagüena B, Birner T, Butchart N, Butler AH, Charlton-Perez AJ, Domeisen DIV, Garfinkel CI, Garny H, Gerber EP. (2021) Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, Reviews of Geophysics, volume 59, no. 1, DOI:10.1029/2020RG000708.

2020

2018

2016

2015

2014

2013

  • Christensen JH, Kanikicharla KK, Aldrian E, An SI, Albuquerque Cavalcanti IF, de Castro M, Dong W, Goswami P, Hall A, Kanyanga JK. (2013) Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change, Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1217-1308, DOI:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028.
  • Baldwin MP. (2013) Stratosphere-troposphere coupling, downward control, eddy feedbacks, and all that (Invited). [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP. (2013) Report on the 1st SPARC Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP). April 24-26 April 2013, Reading, UK, Uk, 24th Apr 2013 - 26th Apr 2016.
  • Charlton-Perez AJ, Baldwin MP, Birner T, Black RX, Butler AH, Calvo N, Davis NA, Gerber EP, Gillett N, Hardiman S. (2013) On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 118, no. 6, pages 2494-2505, DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50125. [PDF]
  • Mitchell DM, Gray LJ, Anstey J, Baldwin MP, Charlton-Perez AJ. (2013) The influence of stratospheric vortex displacements and splits on surface climate, Journal of Climate, volume 26, no. 8, pages 2668-2682, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1.

2012

  • Baldwin MP. (2012) SPARC Workshop on Stratospheric Sudden Warming and its Role in Weather and Climate Variations, Report on the 19th Session of the SPARC Scientific Steering Group, Kyoto, Japan, 22nd - 24th Feb 2012.
  • Tomassini L, Gerber EP, Baldwin MP, Bunzel F, Giorgetta M. (2012) The role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the occurrence of extreme winter cold spells over northern Europe, JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS, volume 4, article no. ARTN M00A03, DOI:10.1029/2012MS000177. [PDF]
  • Tomassini L, Gerber EP, Baldwin M, Bunzel F, Giorgetta M. (2012) The role of stratosphere-troposhere coupling in the 2 occurrence of extreme winter cold spells over Northern Europe (in press), Journal of Geophysical Research. [PDF]
  • Baldwin M, Mitchell D, Gray LJ, Baldwin MP, Charlton-Perez AJ, Anstey J. (2012) The Influence of Stratospheric Vortex Displacements and Splits on Surface Climate (submitted January 2012), Journal of Climate. [PDF]
  • Charlton-Perez, AJ, Baldwin M, T Birner, RX Black, H Butler, NA Davis, EP Gerber, S Hardiman, J Kim, K Krueger. (2012) Mean Climate and Variability of the Stratosphere in the CMIP5 Models (submitted June 2012), Journal of Geophysical Research. [PDF]
  • Manzini M, Karpechko AY, Anstey J, Baldwin M, Birner T, Black RX, Cagnazzo C, Calvo N, Charlton A, Christiansen B. (2012) Role of the stratosphere in Northern winter climate change as simulated by the CMIP5 models. (submitted July 2012), Journal of Geophysical Research. [PDF]

2011

2010

  • Baldwin MP, Gillett NP, Forster P, Gerber EP, Hegglin MI, Karpechko AY, Kim J, Kushner PJ, Morgenstern OH, Reichler T. (2010) Effects of the Stratosphere on the Troposphere (Chapter 10), WMO/ICSU/IOC World Climate Research Programme. [PDF]
  • Forster PM, Thompson DWJ, Baldwin MP, Chipperfield MP, Dameris M, Haigh JD, Karoly DJ, Kushner PJ, Randel WJ, Rosenlof KH. (2010) Stratospheric Changes and Climate, Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, World Meteorological Organization, 4.1-4.46. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP. (2010) Typography & graphic design, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 136, no. 646, pages 1-1. [PDF]
  • Gerber EP, Baldwin MP, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Dhomse S. (2010) Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry-climate models, Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, volume 115, no. 18, DOI:10.1029/2009JD013770. [PDF]

2009

2008

2007

  • Baldwin MP, Rhines PB, Huang HP, McIntyre ME. (2007) Atmospheres. The jet-stream conundrum, Science, volume 315, no. 5811, pages 467-468, DOI:10.1126/science.1131375. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Dameris M, Shepherd TG. (2007) Atmosphere. How will the stratosphere affect climate change?, Science, volume 316, no. 5831, pages 1576-1577, DOI:10.1126/science.1144303. [PDF]
  • Trenberth KE, Jones PD, et al.. (2007) Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change (contributing author to Chapter 3), Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press. [PDF]
  • Kushner PJ, Austin J, Baldwin MP, Butchart N, Giorgetta MA, Haynes PH, Manzini E, McFarlane NA, O'Neill O, Perlwitz J. (2007) The SPARC DynVar Project: A SPARC Project on the Dynamics and Variability of the Coupled Stratosphere-Troposphere, no. 29, pages 8-13. [PDF]

2006

  • Baldwin M, Dameris M. (2006) Climate-Ozone Connections, WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment, Ozone Secretariat, 5.1-5.49. [PDF]

2005

  • Baldwin MP, Neu JL, Drobot S, Canziana P, Yoden S, McFarlane N. (2005) SPARC and the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007–2008, SPARC Newsletter, no. 25, pages 3-5. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. (2005) The solar cycle and stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, volume 67, no. 1-2, pages 71-82, DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2004.07.018. [PDF]
  • Thompson DWJ, Baldwin MP, Solomon S. (2005) Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Southern Hemisphere, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 62, no. 3, pages 708-715. [PDF]
  • Pascoe CL, Gray LJ, Crooks SA, Juckes MN, Baldwin MP. (2005) The quasi-biennial oscillation: Analysis using ERA-40 data, Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, volume 110, no. 8, pages 1-13, article no. D08105. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Gray LJ. (2005) Tropical stratospheric zonal winds in ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis, rocketsonde data, and rawinsonde data, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 32, no. 9, pages 1-5, article no. L09806, DOI:10.1029/2004GL022328. [PDF]

2004

  • Randel, W, Baldwin M, et al.. (2004) Review Paper: The SPARC Intercomparison of Middle Atmosphere Climatologies, Journal of Climate, pages 986-1003. [PDF]

2003

  • Baldwin MP, Sukyoung Lee, David WJ Thompson. (2003) Atmospheric processes governing the northern hemisphere annular mode/North Atlantic oscillation, The North Atlantic Oscillation: climatic significance and environmental impact.
  • Baldwin MP. (2003) SPARC Workshop on the Role of the Stratosphere in Tropospheric Climate, Report on the 23rd Session of the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) for the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), Whistler (bc), Canada,, 17th - 21st Mar 2003.
  • Baldwin MP, Thompson DW, Shuckburgh EF, Norton WA, Gillett NP. (2003) Atmospheric science. Weather from the stratosphere?, Science, volume 301, no. 5631, pages 317-319, DOI:10.1126/science.1085688. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Hirooka T, O'Neill A, Yoden S. (2003) Major stratospheric warming in the Southern Hemisphere in 2002: Dynamical aspects of the ozone hole split, SPARC Newsletter, no. 20, pages 24-26. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP. (2003) Comment on "Tropospheric response to stratospheric perturbations in a relatively simple general circulation model" by Lorenzo M. Polvani and Paul J. Kushner, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 30, no. 15, pages CLM 4-1 - 4-3.
  • Charlton AJ, O'Neill A, Stephenson DB, Lahoz WA, Baldwin MP. (2003) Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere?, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 129, no. 595 PART B, pages 3205-3224. [PDF]
  • Charlton AJ, O'Neill A, Stephenson DB, Lahoz WA, Baldwin MP. (2003) Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere?, Quart. J. of Royal. Met. Soc, volume 129, no. 595, pages 3205-3224, DOI:10.1256/qj.02.232. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Thompson DWJ, Dunkerton TJ, Charlton AJ, O'Neill A. (2003) Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts, Science, volume 301, pages 636-640, DOI:10.1126/science.1087143. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Thompson DWJ, Dunkerton TJ, Charlton AJ, O'Neill A. (2003) Stratospheric memory: Effects on the troposphere, 14th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics, San Antonio, Tx, 9th - 13th Jun 2003, 14TH CONFERENCE ON ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC FLUID DYNAMICS, pages 215-220.

2002

  • Thompson DWJ, Lee S, Baldwin MP. (2002) Atmospheric processes governing the Northern Hemisphere annular mode/North Atlantic Oscillation, The North Atlantic Oscillation (Monograph), AGU, 81-112. [PDF]
  • Randel, W, Baldwin M, et al. (2002) The SPARC Intercomparison of Middle Atmosphere Climatologies (contributing author), no. Report Number 3. [PDF]
  • Thompson DWJ, Baldwin MP, Wallace JM. (2002) Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather: Implications for prediction, Journal of Climate, volume 15, no. 12, pages 1421-1428. [PDF]

2001

  • Gillett NP, Baldwin MP, Allen MR. (2001) Evidence for nonlinearity in observed stratospheric circulation changes, Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, volume 106, no. D8, pages 7891-7901.
  • Gray LJ, Phipps SJ, Dunkerton TJ, Baldwin MP, Drysdale EF, Allen MR. (2001) A data study of the influence of the equatorial upper stratosphere on northern-hemisphere stratospheric sudden warnings, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 127, no. 576, pages 1985-2003. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Gray LJ, Dunkerton TJ, Hamilton K, Haynes PH, Randel WJ, Holton JR, Alexander MJ, Hirota I, Horinouchi T. (2001) The quasi-biennial oscillation, Reviews of Geophysics, volume 39, no. 2, pages 179-229. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. (2001) Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, volume 294, no. 5542, pages 581-584. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP. (2001) Annular modes in global daily surface pressure, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 28, no. 21, pages 4115-4118. [PDF]

2000

  • Baldwin MP. (2000) The Arctic Oscillation and its role in stratosphere-troposphere coupling, no. 14, pages 10-14. [PDF]

1999

  • Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. (1999) Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, volume 104, no. D24, pages 30937-30946. [PDF]

1998

  • Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. (1998) Biennial, quasi-biennial, and decadal oscillations of potential vorticity in the northern stratosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, volume 103, no. D4, pages 3919-3928. [PDF]
  • Dunkerton TJ, Delisi DP, Baldwin MP. (1998) Middle atmosphere cooling trend in historical rocketsonde data, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 25, no. 17, pages 3371-3374. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. (1998) Quasi-biennial modulation of the southern hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 25, no. 17, pages 3343-3346. [PDF]

1995

  • Baldwin MP, Tung KK. (1995) Extra-tropical QBO signals in angular momentum and wave forcing, TENTH CONFERENCE ON ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC WAVES AND STABILITY, pages 174-175. [PDF]
  • Dunkerton TJ, Baldwin MP. (1995) Observation of 3-6-day meridional wind oscillations over the tropical Pacific, 1973-1992: horizontal structure and propagation, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 52, no. 10, pages 1585-1601. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, O'Sullivan D. (1995) Stratospheric effects of ENSO-related tropospheric circulation anomalies, Journal of Climate, volume 8, no. 4, pages 649-667. [PDF]

1994

  • Baldwin MP, Xinhua C, Dunkerton TJ. (1994) Observed correlations between winter-mean tropospheric and stratospheric circulation anomalies, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 21, no. 12, pages 1141-1144. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Tung KK. (1994) Extra-tropical QBO signals in angular momentum and wave forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 21, no. 24, pages 2717-2720. [PDF]

1992

  • Dunkerton TJ, Baldwin MP. (1992) Modes of interannual variability in the stratosphere, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 19, no. 1, pages 49-52. [PDF]

1991

  • Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. (1991) Quasi-biennial oscillation above 10 mb, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 18 No.7, pages 1205-1208. [PDF]
  • Dunkerton TJ, Baldwin MP. (1991) Quasi-biennial modulation of planetary-wave fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 48, no. 8, pages 1043-1061. [PDF]

1989

  • Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. (1989) The stratospheric major warming of early December 1987, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 46, no. 18, pages 2863-2884, DOI:10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<2863:TSMWOE>2.0.CO;2.
  • Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. (1989) Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 16, no. 8, pages 863-866. [PDF]

1988

  • Dunkerton TJ, Delisi DP, Baldwin MP. (1988) Distribution of major stratospheric warmings in relation to the quasi-biennial oscillation, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 15, no. 2, pages 136-139. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Holton JR. (1988) Climatology of the stratospheric polar vortex and planetary wave breaking, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 45, no. 7, pages 1123-1142. [PDF]

1985

  • Baldwin MP, Edmon HJ, Holton JR. (1985) A Diagnostic Study of Eddy-Mean Flow Interactions during FGGE SOP-1, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 42, no. 17, pages 1838-1845, DOI:10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<1838:adsoem>2.0.co;2. [PDF]
  • Baldwin MP, Edmon Jr HJ, Holton JR. (1985) A study of eddy-mean flow interactions using Eliassen-Palm diagnostics: FGGE SOP-1 data and the NASA GLAS general circulation model compared, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 42(17), pages 1838-1845. [PDF]

1984

  • Baldwin MP, Edmon HJ, Holton JR. (1984) A study of eddy-mean flow interactions using Eliassen-Palm diagnostics: FGGE SOP-1 data and the NASA GLAS general circulation model compared.
  • Vonnegut B, Baldwin MP. (1984) Repeated Nucleation of a Supercooled Water Sample that Contains Silver Iodide Particles, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, volume 23 No.3, pages 486-490. [PDF]

1982

  • Baldwin M, Vonnegut B. (1982) Automatic apparatus for nucleation investigations, Review of Scientific Instruments, volume 53(12), pages 1911-1914. [PDF]

Back to top


Further information

Personal Homepage

Marie Curie Career Integration Grant outcomes

Marie Curie Career Integration Grant outcomes

Summary

At mid-to-high latitudes, the stratosphere contains >25% of the column of atmospheric mass. In Northern Hemisphere winter large-scale vertically-propagating waves drive a synchronised meridional circulation that moves mass into and out of the Arctic (>65ºN), modulating adiabatic warming of the stratospheric polar air column, and altering the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. These stratospheric changes are associated with substantial effects on surface weather and climate, especially on Northern Annular Mode (NAM) with associated long-lasting shifts in the jet streams, storm tracks, precipitation, and likelihood of blocking events. Despite unambiguous observations of this phenomenon, as well as numerical simulations, a quantitative physical explanation of this downward coupling remains elusive. 

In this project we demonstrate that amplification of the polar stratospheric pressure signal involves a positive dynamical feedback process within the troposphere. An initial Arctic tropospheric sea level pressure (SLP) signal (e.g., from a sudden stratospheric warming) reduces latitudinal pressure gradients and poleward heat transport within the troposphere, leading to increased cooling of the Arctic lower troposphere. This cooling induces higher pressure over the Arctic region (Hoskins et al. 1985), thus amplifying the original stratospheric signal. This positive dynamical feedback process appears to operate in both hemispheres, and is consistent with the observed lag in the tropospheric response to stratospheric signals. The feedback process itself is not unique to stratospheric forcing, and may explain why the annular modes are easily forced, tend to self-amplify, and have relatively long time scales.

Thus, for the first time, we have been able to quantify stratosphere-troposphere coupling, and we have developed a diagnostic that can be used to assess the fidelity of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in nearly any model. In the future, climate models (such as used in IPCC reports) can be evaluated to see if their representation of the stratosphere is realistic. Similarly, weather forecast models can be evaluated.

 

Talks at meetings

SPARC General Assembly talk, January 2014, NZ

SPARC meeting talk Granada, Spain, January 2015

Brewer-Dobson workshop talk, Grindelwald, Switzerland, August 2015

AMS New Orleans talk, January 2016

SHARP Belin talk, February 2016

SPARC DynVar Helsinki, talk, June 2016

Tokyo Middle Atmosphere meeting talk, September 2016

Oxford QBO meeting talk, September 2016

Researcher training was very successful. The PhD student, Simon Clark, had a successful viva.

Papers published:

Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change T. A. Shaw, M. Baldwin, E. A. Barnes, R. Caballero, C. I. Garfinkel, Y.-T. Hwang, C. Li, P. A. O'Gorman, G. Rivière, I. R. Simpson & A. Voigt Nature Geoscience volume 9, pages 656–664 (2016) doi:10.1038/ngeo2783   Examining the Predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 Using Multiple NWP Systems Om P. Tripathia, Mark Baldwinb, Andrew Charlton-Pereza, Martin Charronc, Jacob C. H. Cheungd, Stephen D. Eckermanne, Edwin Gerberf, David R. Jacksond, Yuhji Kurodag, Andrea Langh, Justin McLayi, Ryo Mizutag, Carolyn Reynoldsi, Greg Roffj, Michael Sigmondk, Seok-Woo Sonl, and Tim Stockdalem a Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom b College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom c Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada d Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom e Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C. f Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, New York g Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan h Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York i Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California j Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia k Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada l School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea m European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom Monthly Weather Review https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1   Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere Authors A. A. Scaife, A. Yu. Karpechko, M. P. Baldwin, A. Brookshaw, A. H. Butler, R. Eade, M. Gordon, C. MacLachlan, N. Martin, N. Dunstone, D. Smith First published: 25 October 2015 in Atmospheric Sciences Letters DOI: 10.1002/asl.598   The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time-scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts Authors Om P. Tripathi, Mark Baldwin, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Martin Charron, Stephen D. Eckermann, Edwin Gerber, R. Giles Harrison, David R. Jackson, Baek-Min Kim, Yuhji Kuroda, Andrea Lang, Sana Mahmood, Ryo Mizuta, Greg Roff, Michael Sigmond, Seok-Woo Son First published: 15 October 2014, Monthly Weather Review DOI: 10.1002/qj.2432   Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather Joseph Kidston, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Daniel M. Mitchell, Neal Butchart, Mark P. Baldwin & Lesley J. Gray Nature Geoscience volume 8, pages 433–440 (2015) doi:10.1038/ngeo2424  

Back to top