Prof James Screen

Prof James Screen

Professor in Climate Science

Telephone: 01392 726408

Extension: (Streatham) 6408

Follow me on Twitter: @polar_james

Prof. Screen is a Professor in Climate Science within the Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy. He current research focuses on the climate of the Polar Regions and how Arctic sea-ice loss influences mid-latitude weather and climate. His work has significantly advanced scientific understanding of the causes, and global effects, of rapid Arctic climate change. Prof. Screen is an internationally recognised expert in modelling the climate response to Arctic sea ice changes.

Prof. Screen held a prestigous NERC Fellowship from 2012-2015. His achievements have been recognized by the awards of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Early Career Scientist Medal in 2013, Philip Leverhulme Prize in 2015, and 2023 Blavatnik Awards for Young Scientists in the UK.

Research Interests

Climate variability and change
Arctic Amplification, its causes and impacts
Role of sea ice in the climate system
Climate impacts of Arctic sea ice loss

Office hours (term 1)

Wednesdays 9-10am Laver 920

Opportunities

I am happy to hear from prospective PhD students or Postdoctoral Fellowship applicants interested in the above research areas.

Selected Publications

A full list of publications and citations can be found here.

2023

Cottrell, F.M., J.A. Screen & A.A. Scaife, 2023: Signal-to-noise errors in free-running atmospheric simulations and their depndence on model resolution. Atmos. Sci. Lett., in review.
Williams, N., A.A. Scaife & J.A. Screen, 2023: Effect of increased ocean resolution on model errors in ENSO and its teleconnections. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., in review.
Gong, H, L. Wang, J.A. Screen, W. Chen, J. Cohen & R. Wu, 2023: Teleconnection from Arctic warming suppresses long-term warming in central Eurasia. Nature Geosci., in revision.
Xu, M, J.A. Screen, W. Tian, J. Zhang & C. Zhang, 2023: Influence of future regional sea-ice loss on the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex. Geophys. Res. Lett., in revision.
Oltmanns, M., N.P. Holliday, J.A. Screen, D.G. Evans, S.A. Josey & B. Moat, 2023: North Atlantic freshwater events influence European weather in subsequent summers. Weather Clim. Dyn., in revision.
Fang, Y., S. Yang, X. Hu, S. Lin & J.A. Screen, 2023: Remote forcing for the interannual variability of surface melting events over the Ross Ice Shelf. J. Clim, revised.
Geen, R., S. Thomson, J.A. Screen, R. Blackport, N. Lewis, R. Mudhar, W. Seviour & G. Vallis, 2023: An explanation for the metric dependence of the midlatitude jet-waviness change in response to polar warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., revised.
Liang, Y-C., Y-O. Kwon, C. Frankignoul, G. Gastineau, K.L. Smith, L.M. Polvani, L. Sun, Y. Peings, C. Deser, R. Zhang & J.A. Screen, 2023: The weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and the subsequent surface impacts as consequences to Arctic sea-ice loss. J. Climate, revised.
Zheng, C., Y. Wu, M. Ting, J.A. Screen & P. Zhang, 2023: Diverse Eurasian temperature responses to Arctic sea ice loss in models due to varying balance between dynamical cooling and thermodynamical warming. J. Climate, accepted.
Hay, S., M. Priestley, H. Yu, J.L. Catto & J.A. Screen, 2023: The effect of Arctic sea-ice loss on extratropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL102840.
Morten, J., P. Buchanan, C. Egevang, I. Glissenaar, S. Maxwell, N. Parr, J.A. Screen, F. Vigfusdottir, N. Vogt-Vincent, D. Williams, N. Williams, M. Witt, W. Thurston, & L. Hawkes, 2023: Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration. Global Change Biology, 29, 5596-5614.
Warner, J., J.A. Screen, A.A. Sciafe, A. Maidens & J. Knight, 2023: Tropical forcing of Barents-Kara sea ice during autumn. Geophys. Res. Lett., e2023GL102768.
Yu, H., J.A. Screen, S. Hay, J.L. Catto & M. Xu, 2023: Winter precipitation responses to Arctic sea-ice loss and global ocean warming and their opposing influences over northeast Atlantic region. J. Climate, 36, 4951-4966.
Williams, N., A.A. Scaife & J.A. Screen, 2023: Underpredicted ENSO teleconnections in seasonal forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL101689.
Xu, M., W. Tian, J. Zhang, J.A. Screen, C. Zhang & Z. Wang, 2023: Important role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming in response to sea-ice loss. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6, 9.
Ye, K, T. Woollings & J.A. Screen, 2023: European winter climate response to projected Arctic sea-ice loss strongly shaped by change in the North Atlantic jet. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102005.
Lo, Y., D. Mitchell,P. Watson & J.A. Screen, 2023: Changes in winter temperature extremes from future Arctic sea-ice loss and ocean warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102542.

2022

Screen, J.A., R. Eade, D.M. Smith, S. Thomson & H. Yu, 2022: Net equatorward shift of the jet streams when the contribution from sea-ice loss is constrained by observed eddy feedback. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100523.
Walsh, A, J.A. Screen, A.A. Scaife & D. Smith, 2022: Non-linear response of the extratropics to tropical climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100416.
Zhang, T., K. van der Wiel, T. Wei, J.A. Screen, X. Yue, B. Zheng, F. Selten, R. Bintanja, W. Anderson, R. Blackport, S. Glomsrod, Y. Liu, X. Cui & X. Yang, 2022: Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2 °C global warming. One Earth, 5, 907-916.
Zhang, R. & J.A. Screen, 2022: Arctic and Pacific Ocean conditions were favourable for cold extremes over Eurasia and North America during winter 2020/21. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E2285-E2301.
Ayres, H.C, J.A. Screen, E. Blockley & T.J. Bracegirdle, 2022: The coupled atmosphere-ocean response to Antarctic sea-ice loss. J. Clim., 35, 4665-4685.
Hay, S., P.J. Kushner, R. Blackport, K.E. McCusker, T. Oudar, L. Sun, M. England, C. Deser, J.A. Screen & L. Polvani, 2022: Separating the influences of low-latitude warming and sea-ice loss on Northern Hemisphere climate change. J. Clim., 35, 2327-2349.
Blackport, R., J.C. Fyfe & J.A. Screen, 2022: Arctic change reduces risk of cold extremes. Science, 375, 729.
Smith, D., R. Eade, M. Andrews, H. Ayres, A. Clark, S. Chripko, C. Deser, N. Dunstone, J. Garcia-Serrano, G. Gastineau, L. Graff, S. Hardiman, B. He, L. Hermanson, T. Jung, J. Knight, X. Levine, G. Magnusdottir, E. Manzini, D. Matei, M. Mori, R. Msadek, P. Ortega, Y. Peings, A. Scaife, J.A. Screen, M. Seabrook, T. Semmler, M. Sigmond, J. Streffing, L. Sun & A. Walsh, 2022: Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss. Nature Commun., 13, 727.

2021

McCrystall, M.R., J.C. Stroeve, M.C. Serreze, B.C. Forbes & J.A. Screen, 2021: New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation then previously projected. Nature Commun., 12, 6765.
Xu, M., W. Tian, J. Zhang, J.A. Screen, J. Huang, K Qie & T. Wang, 2021: Distinct tropospheric and stratospheric mechanisms linking historical Barents-Kara sea-ice loss and late winter Eurasian temperature variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, e2021GL095262.
Blackport, R., J.C. Fyfe & J.A. Screen, 2021: Decreasing subseasonal temperature variability in the northern extratropics attributed to human influence. Nature Geosci., 14, 719-723.
Screen, J.A., 2021: An ice-free Arctic: what could it mean for European weather? Weather, 76, 327-328.
Xu, P., L. Wang, G. Vallis, R. Geen, J.A. Screen, P. Wu, S. Ding, P. Huang & W. Chen, 2021: Amplified waveguide teleconnections along the polar front jet favor temperature extremes over northern Eurasia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL093735,
Zhang, R. & J.A. Screen, 2021: Diverse Eurasian winter temperature responses to Barents-Kara sea ice anomalies of different magnitudes and seasonality. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL092726.
McCrystall, M. & J.A. Screen, 2021: Arctic winter temperature variations correlated with ENSO are dependent on coincidental sea ice changes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091519.
Blackport, R. & J.A. Screen, 2021: Observed statistical connections overestimate the causal effects of Arctic sea-ice changes on midlatitude winter climate. J. Clim., 34, 3021-3038.

2020

Blackport, R. & J.A. Screen, 2020: Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming. Nature. Clim. Change, 10, 1065-1666.
Osborne, J.M., M. Collins, J.A. Screen, S.I. Thomson & N. Dunstone, 2020: The North Atlantic as a driver of summer atmospheric circulation. J. Clim., 33, 7335-7351.
Deser, C., F. Lehner, K. Rodgers, T. Ault, T. Delworth, P.N. DiNezio, A. Fiore, C. Frankignoul, J.C. Fyfe, D.E. Horton, J.E. Kay, R. Knutti, N. Lovenduski, J. Marotzke, K. A. McKinnon, S. Minobe, J. Randerson, J.A. Screen, I.R. Simpson & M. Ting, 2020: Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects. Nature Clim. Change, 10, 277-286.
Kelleher, M., B. Ayarzagüena & J.A. Screen, 2020: Inter-seasonal connections between the timing of the stratospheric final warming and Arctic sea ice. J. Clim., 33, 3079-3092.
van der Wiel, K., F. Selten, R. Bintanja, R. Blackport & J.A. Screen, 2020: Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions. Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 034050.
Blackport, R. & J.A. Screen, 2020: Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of mid-latitude atmospheric waves. Sci. Adv., 6, eaay2880.
Halloran, P., I. Hall, M. Menary, D. Reynolds, J. Scourse, J.A. Screen, A. Bozzo, N. Dunstone, S. Phipps. A. Schurer, T. Sueyoshi, T. Zhou and F. Garry, 2020: Natural drivers of multidecadal Arctic sea ice variability over the last millennium. Sci. Rep., 10, 688.
Warner, J.L., J.A. Screen & A.A. Scaife, 2020: Links between Barents-Kara sea ice and the extratropical atmospheric circulation explained by internal variability and tropical forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085679.

2019

Screen, J.A. & R. Blackport, 2019: Is sea-ice-driven Eurasian cooling too weak in models? Nature Clim. Change, 9, 934-936.
Screen, J.A. & R. Blackport, 2019: How robust is the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models? Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 11406-11415.
van der Wiel, K., H. Bloomfield, R. Lee, L. Stoop, R. Blackport, J.A. Screen & F. Selten, 2019: The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand. Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 9.
Ayres, H. & J.A. Screen, 2019: Multimodel analysis of the atmospheric response to Antarctic sea ice loss at quadrupled CO 2. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 9861-9869.
Blackport, R., J.A. Screen, K. van der Wiel & R. Bintanja, 2019: Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes. Nature Clim. Change, 9, 697-704.
Kolstad, E.W. & J.A. Screen, 2019: Non-stationary relationship between autumn Arctic sea ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 7583-7591.
Blackport, R. & J.A. Screen, 2019: Influence of Arctic sea-ice loss in autumn compared to that in winter on the atmospheric circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2213-2221.
Screen, J.A. & C. Deser, 2019: Pacific Ocean variability influences the time of emergence of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2222-2231.
Smith, D.M., J.A. Screen, C. Deser, J. Cohen, J. Fyfe, J. Garcia-Serrano, T. Jung, V. Kattsov, D. Matei, R. Msadek, Y. Peings, M. Sigmond, J. Ukita, J.-H. Yoon & X. Zhang, 2019: The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1139-1164.

2018

Screen, J.A., T.J. Bracegirdle & I. Simmonds, 2018: Polar climate change as manisfest in atmospheric circulation. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 383-395.
Screen, J.A., 2018: Arctic sea ice at 1.5 and 2 °C, Nature Clim. Change, 8, 362-363.
Screen, J.A., C. Deser, D.M. Smith, X. Zhang, R. Blackport, P.J. Kushner, T. Oudar, K.E. McCusker & L. Sun, 2018: Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss across climate models, Nature Geosci., 11, 153-163.
Kelleher, M. & J.A. Screen, 2018: Atmospheric precursors of and response to anomalous Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 models, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 35, 27-37.

2017

Lee, S., T. Gong, S.B. Feldstein, J.A. Screen & I. Simmonds, 2017: Revisiting the cause of the 1989-2009 Arctic surface warming using the surface energy budget: downward infrared radiation dominates the surface fluxes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10654-10661.
Screen, J.A., 2017: Far-flung effects of Arctic warming, Nature Geosci., 10, 253-254.
Screen, J.A. & D. Williamson, 2017: Ice-free Arctic at 1.5°C?, Nature Clim. Change, 7, 230-231.
Screen, J.A., 2017: The missing Northern European cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss, Nature Commun., 8, 14603.
Screen, J.A., 2017: Simulated atmospheric response to regional and pan-Arctic sea ice loss, J. Clim., 30, 3945-3962.
Osborne, J.M., J.A. Screen & M. Collins, 2017: Ocean-atmospheric state dependence of the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss, J. Clim., 30, 1537-1552.

2016

Overland, J.E., K. Dethloff, J.A. Francis, R.J. Hall, E. Hanna, S.-J. Kim, J.A. Screen, T.G. Shepherd & T. Vihma, 2016: Nonlinear response of midlatitude weather to the changing Arctic, Nature Clim. Change, 6, 992-999.
Screen, J.A. & J.A. Francis, 2016: Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability, Nature Clim. Change, 6, 856-860.
Ayarzagüena, B. & J.A. Screen, 2016: Future Arctic sea-ice loss reduces severity of cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2801-2809.
Vihma, T., J.A. Screen, M. Tjernstrom, B. Newton, X. Zhang, V. Popova, C. Deser, M. Holland & T. Prowse, 2016: The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts, J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 121, 586-620.
Lique, C., M. Holland, Y. Dibike, D. Lawrence & J.A. Screen, 2016: Modeling the Arctic freshwater system and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges, J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 121, 540-566.
Deser, C., R. Tomas, L. Sun & J.A. Screen, 2016: Does ocean coupling matter for the northern extra-tropical response to projected Arctic sea ice loss?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL067792

2015

Screen, J.A., C. Deser & L. Sun, 2015: Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 084006 [PDF]
Huntingford, C., T. Marsh, A.A. Scaife, E.J. Kendon, J. Hannaford, A.L. Kay, M. Lockwood, C. Prudhomme, N.S. Reynard, S. Parry, J.A. Lowe, J.A. Screen, H.C. Ward, M. Roberts, P.A. Stott, V.A. Bell, M. Bailey, A. Jenkins, T. Legg, F.E.L. Otto, N. Massey, N. Schaller, J. Slingo & M.R. Allen, 2015: Reply to 'Drivers of the 2013/14 winter floods in the UK', Nature Clim. Change, 5, 491-492
Barnes, E.A. & J.A. Screen, 2015: The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jetstream: Can it? Has it? Will it?, WIREs Climate Change, 6, 277-286
Screen, J.A., C. Deser & L. Sun, 2015: Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic sea ice loss, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1489-1503 [PDF]

2014

Huntingford, C., T. Marsh, A.A. Scaife, E.J. Kendon, J. Hannaford, A.L. Kay, M. Lockwood, C. Prudhomme, N.S. Reynard, S. Parry, J.A. Lowe, J.A. Screen, H.C. Ward, M. Roberts, P.A. Stott, V.A. Bell, M. Bailey, A. Jenkins, T. Legg, F.E.L. Otto, N. Massey, N. Schaller, J. Slingo & M.R. Allen, 2014: Potential influences in the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14, Nature Clim. Change, 4, 769-777
Cohen, J., J.A. Screen, J.C. Furtado, M. Barlow, D. Whittleston, D. Coumou, J. Francis, K. Dethloff, D. Entekhabi, J. Overland & J. Jones, 2014: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather, Nature Geosci., 7, 627-637
Screen, J.A. & I. Simmonds, 2014: Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes, Nature Clim. Change, 4, 704-709
Screen, J.A., 2014: Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes, Nature Clim. Change, 4, 577-582
Screen, J.A., C. Deser, I. Simmonds & R. Tomas, 2014: Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979-2009: Separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability, Clim. Dyn., 43, 333-344 [PDF]

2013

Screen, J.A., 2013: Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 044015 [PDF]
Screen, J.A. & I. Simmonds, 2013: Caution needed when linking weather extremes to amplified planetary waves, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, doi:10.1073/pnas.1304867110 [PDF]
Screen, J.A. & I. Simmonds, 2013: Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 959-964 [PDF]
Screen, J.A., I. Simmonds, C. Deser & R. Tomas, 2013: The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss, J. Clim., 26, 1230-1248 [PDF]

2012

Screen, J.A. & I. Simmonds, 2012: Half-century air temperature change above Antarctica: Observed trends and spatial reconstructions, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 117, D16108, doi:10.1029/2012JD017885 [PDF]
Screen, J.A., C. Deser & I. Simmonds, 2012: Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10709, doi:10.1029/2012GL051598 [PDF]
Screen, J.A. & I Simmonds, 2012: Declining summer snowfall in the Arctic: Causes, impacts and feedbacks, Clim. Dyn., 38, 2243-2256 [PDF]

2011

Screen, J.A., I. Simmonds & K. Keay, 2011: Dramatic inter-annual changes of perennial Arctic sea ice linked to abnormal summer storm activity, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 116, D15105, doi:10.1029/2011JD015847 [PDF]
Screen, J.A., 2011: Sudden increase in Antarctic sea ice: Fact or Artifact?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13702, doi:10.1029/2011GL047553 [PDF]
Screen, J.A. & I. Simmonds, 2011: Erroneous Arctic temperature trends in the ERA-40 reanalysis: a closer look, J. Clim., 24, 2620-2627 [PDF]

2010

Screen, J.A. & I. Simmonds, 2010: Increasing fall-winter energy loss from the Arctic Ocean and its role in Arctic temperature amplification, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16797, doi:10.1029/2010GL044136 [PDF]
Screen, J.A. & I. Simmonds, 2010: The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification, Nature, 464, 1334-1337 [PDF]

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