Overview

Research Interests

I use a combination of observations and models to understand high impact weather systems in the present and and future climate in order to improve climate resilience and improve disaster reduction.

Some current research questions and projects:

• Can we estimate worst-case storms and stormy seasons using seasonal forecast data? (project funded by Guy Carpenter)
• How are extreme precipitation events in observations and climate models impacted by the presence of different weather phenomena and other large-scale features? (project funded by US Department of Energy)
• KaLi project - investigating climate and land-use drivers of drought and fire risk in Indonesian Borneo.
• STORMY-WEATHER project - plausible worst case scenarios using a storm typology method.

Group

I am in the Storm Risk group with members who investigate many types of high impact weather and climate events. 

Members:

• David Stephenson
• Matthew Priestley
• Jacob Maddison
• Stephanie Hay
• Mark England
• Ben Youngman
• Lizzy Galloway
• Yi Wang
• Hao Yu
• Toby Jones
• Harriet Gilmour
• Owain Harris

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Publications

_{Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.}

| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |

2024

• Lam T, Catto JL, Barciela R, Harper AB, Challenor P, Arribas A. (2024) Quantifying causal teleconnections to drought and fire risks in Indonesian Borneo, International Journal of Climatology, DOI:10.1002/joc.8442. [PDF]
• Givon Y, Hess O, Flaounas E, Catto JL, Sprenger M, Raveh-Rubin S. (2024) Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity, Weather and Climate Dynamics, volume 5, no. 1, pages 133-162, DOI:10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024.

2023

• Sauter C, Catto JL, Fowler HJ, Westra S, White CJ. (2023) Compounding Heatwave‐Extreme Rainfall Events Driven by Fronts, High Moisture, and Atmospheric Instability, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, volume 128, no. 21, DOI:10.1029/2023jd038761. [PDF]
• Hay S, Priestley MDK, Yu H, Catto JL, Screen JA. (2023) The Effect of Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss on Extratropical Cyclones, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 50, no. 17, DOI:10.1029/2023gl102840. [PDF]
• Catto J, Dowdy A. (2023) European Storm Type Dataset.
• Little AS, Priestley MDK, Catto JL. (2023) Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe, Nat Commun, volume 14, no. 1, DOI:10.1038/s41467-023-40102-6. [PDF]
• Sinclair V, Catto J. (2023) The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates, Weather and Climate Dynamics, DOI:10.5194/wcd-4-567-2023.
• Yu H, Screen JA, Hay S, Catto JL, Xu M. (2023) Winter Precipitation Responses to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Global Ocean Warming and Their Opposing Influences over the Northeast Atlantic Region, Journal of Climate, volume 36, no. 15, pages 4951-4966, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0774.1. [PDF]
• Liang J, Catto JL, Hawcroft MK, Tan ML, Hodges KI, Haywood JM. (2023) Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, volume 6, no. 1, article no. 2, DOI:10.1038/s41612-023-00326-1. [PDF]
• Davies-Barnard T, Catto JL, Harper AB, Imron MA, Frank van Veen FJ. (2023) Future fire risk under climate change and deforestation scenarios in tropical Borneo, Environmental Research Letters, volume 18, no. 2, pages 024015-024015, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/acb225. [PDF]
• Priestley MDK, Ackerley D, Catto JL, Hodges KI. (2023) Drivers of Biases in the CMIP6 Extratropical Storm Tracks. Part II: Southern Hemisphere, Journal of Climate, volume 36, no. 5, pages 1469-1486, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0977.1. [PDF]
• Liang J, Tan ML, Catto JL, Hawcroft MK, Hodges KI, Haywood JM. (2023) Projected near-term changes in monsoon precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the HighResMIP multi-model ensembles, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 60, no. 3-4, pages 1151-1171, DOI:10.1007/s00382-022-06363-5. [PDF]
• Priestley MDK, Ackerley D, Catto JL, Hodges KI. (2023) Drivers of Biases in the CMIP6 Extratropical Storm Tracks. Part I: Northern Hemisphere, Journal of Climate, volume 36, no. 5, pages 1451-1467, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0976.1. [PDF]

2022

• Chan PW, Catto JL, Collins M. (2022) Heatwave–blocking relation change likely dominates over decrease in blocking frequency under global warming, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, volume 5, no. 1, article no. 68, DOI:10.1038/s41612-022-00290-2. [PDF]
• Owen L. (2022) Compound Precipitation and Wind Extremes over Europe and their relationship to Extratropical Cyclones.
• Liang J, Catto J, Hawcroft M, Tan ML, Hodges K, Haywood J. (2022) Greater extreme precipitation from Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate, DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1743399/v1. [PDF]
• Priestley MDK, Catto JL. (2022) Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure, Weather and Climate Dynamics, volume 3, no. 1, pages 337-360, DOI:10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022. [PDF]
• Leung LR, Boos WR, Catto JL, A. DeMott C, Martin GM, Neelin JD, O’Brien TA, Xie S, Feng Z, Klingaman NP. (2022) Exploratory Precipitation Metrics: Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Process-Oriented, and Phenomena-Based, Journal of Climate, volume 35, no. 12, pages 3659-3686, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0590.1. [PDF]
• Priestley MDK, Catto JL. (2022) Improved Representation of Extratropical Cyclone Structure in HighResMIP Models, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 49, no. 5, DOI:10.1029/2021gl096708. [PDF]

2021

• Priestley MDK, Catto JL. (2021) Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure, DOI:10.5194/wcd-2021-75. [PDF]
• Liang J, Tan ML, Hawcroft M, Catto J, Hodges K, Haywood J. (2021) Monsoonal precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments: The role of model resolution, Climate Dynamics.
• Owen LE, Catto JL, Stephenson DB, Dunstone NJ. (2021) Compound precipitation and wind extremes over Europe and their relationship to extratropical cyclones, Weather and Climate Extremes, volume 33, pages 100342-100342, article no. 100342, DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100342. [PDF]
• Owen LE, Catto JL, Dunstone NJ, Stephenson DB. (2021) How well can a seasonal forecast system represent three hourly compound wind and precipitation extremes over Europe?, Environmental Research Letters, volume 16, no. 7, pages 074019-074019, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac092e. [PDF]
• Catto JL, Dowdy A. (2021) Understanding compound hazards from a weather system perspective, Weather and Climate Extremes, volume 32, DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100313.
• Grist JP, Josey SA, Sinha B, Catto JL, Roberts MJ, Coward AC. (2021) Future Evolution of an Eddy Rich Ocean Associated with Enhanced East Atlantic Storminess in a Coupled Model Projection, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 48, no. 7, DOI:10.1029/2021gl092719. [PDF]
• Haywood J, Liang J, Catto J, Hawcroft M, Hodges K, Tan ML. (2021) Climatology of Borneo Vortices in the HadGEM3-GC31 General 1 Circulation Model, Journal of Climate.
• Pepler AS, Dowdy AJ, van Rensch P, Rudeva I, Catto JL, Hope P. (2021) Correction to: The contributions of fronts, lows and thunderstorms to southern Australian rainfall (Climate Dynamics, (2020), 55, 5-6, (1489-1505), 10.1007/s00382-020-05338-8), Climate Dynamics, volume 56, no. 1-2, pages 681-682, DOI:10.1007/s00382-020-05421-0.

2020

• Catto JL. (2020) Book review. Climate Mathematics – Theory and Application, Weather, volume 75, no. 11, pages 349-349, DOI:10.1002/wea.3852. [PDF]
• Pepler AS, Dowdy AJ, van Rensch P, Rudeva I, Catto JL, Hope P. (2020) The contributions of fronts, lows and thunderstorms to southern Australian rainfall, Climate Dynamics, volume 55, no. 5-6, pages 1489-1505, DOI:10.1007/s00382-020-05338-8.
• Priestley M, Ackerley D, Catto J, Hodges K, McDonald R, Lee R. (2020) An Overview of the Extratropical Storm Tracks in CMIP6 Historical Simulations, Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0928.1.

2019

• Catto JL, Ackerley D, Booth JF, Champion AJ, Colle BA, Pfahl S, Pinto JG, Quinting JF, Seiler C. (2019) The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones, Current Climate Change Reports, volume 5, pages 407-420, DOI:10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4.
• Raveh-Rubin S, Catto JL. (2019) Climatology and dynamics of the link between dry intrusions and cold fronts during winter, Part II: Front-centred perspective, Climate Dynamics, volume 53, no. 3-4, pages 1893-1909, DOI:10.1007/s00382-019-04793-2.
• Catto JL, Raveh-Rubin S. (2019) Climatology and dynamics of the link between dry intrusions and cold fronts during winter. Part I: global climatology, Climate Dynamics, volume 53, no. 3-4, pages 1873-1892, DOI:10.1007/s00382-019-04745-w.
• Agel L, Barlow M, Colby F, Binder H, Catto JL, Hoell A, Cohen J. (2019) Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns, Climate Dynamics, volume 52, no. 3-4, pages 1739-1760, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4223-2.

2018

• Quinting JF, Reeder MJ, Catto JL. (2018) The intensity and motion of hybrid cyclones in the Australian region in a composite potential vorticity framework, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, DOI:10.1002/qj.3430.
• Quinting JF, Catto JL, Reeder MJ. (2018) Synoptic climatology of hybrid cyclones in the Australian region, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, DOI:10.1002/qj.3431.
• Catto JL. (2018) A new method to objectively classify extratropical cyclones for climate studies: Testing in the Southwest Pacific region, Journal of Climate, volume 31, no. 12, pages 4683-4704, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0746.1.
• Osburn L, Keay K, Catto JL. (2018) Projected change in wintertime precipitation in California using projected changes in extratropical cyclone activity, Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0556.1.

2017

• Dowdy AJ, Catto JL. (2017) Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences, SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, volume 7, article no. ARTN 40359, DOI:10.1038/srep40359. [PDF]

2016

• Catto JL. (2016) Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies, REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, volume 54, no. 2, pages 486-520, DOI:10.1002/2016RG000519. [PDF]

2015

• Catto JL, Madonna E, Joos H, Rudeva I, Simmonds I. (2015) Global Relationship between Fronts and Warm Conveyor Belts and the Impact on Extreme Precipitation, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 28, no. 21, pages 8411-8429, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0171.1. [PDF]
• Catto JL, Jakob C, Nicholls N. (2015) Can the CMIP5 models represent winter frontal precipitation?, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 42, no. 20, pages 8596-8604, DOI:10.1002/2015GL066015. [PDF]

2014

• Govekar PD, Jakob C, Catto J. (2014) The relationship between clouds and dynamics in Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in the real world and a climate model, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 119, no. 11, pages 6609-6628, DOI:10.1002/2013JD020699. [PDF]
• Hope P, Keay K, Pook M, Catto J, Simmonds I, Mills G, McIntosh P, Risbey J, Berry G. (2014) A Comparison of Automated Methods of Front Recognition for Climate Studies: A Case Study in Southwest Western Australia, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, volume 142, no. 1, pages 343-363, DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00252.1. [PDF]
• Martinez-Alvarado O, Gray SL, Catto JL, Clark PA. (2014) Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms (vol 7, 024014, 2012), ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 9, no. 3, article no. ARTN 039501, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/039501. [PDF]
• Catto JL, Nicholls N, Jakob C, Shelton KL. (2014) Atmospheric fronts in current and future climates, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 41, no. 21, pages 7642-7650, DOI:10.1002/2014GL061943. [PDF]

2013

• Catto JL, Pfahl S. (2013) The importance of fronts for extreme precipitation, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 118, no. 19, pages 10791-10801, DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50852. [PDF]
• Catto JL, Jakob C, Nicholls N. (2013) A global evaluation of fronts and precipitation in the ACCESS model, AUSTRALIAN METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANOGRAPHIC JOURNAL, volume 63, no. 1, pages 191-203, DOI:10.22499/2.6301.012. [PDF]

2012

• Catto JL, Nicholls N, Jakob C. (2012) North Australian Sea Surface Temperatures and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the CMIP5 Models, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 25, no. 18, pages 6375-6382, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00214.1. [PDF]
• Catto JL, Nicholls N, Jakob C. (2012) North Australian Sea Surface Temperatures and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in Observations and Models, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 25, no. 14, pages 5011-5029, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00311.1. [PDF]
• Catto JL, Jakob C, Nicholls N. (2012) The influence of changes in synoptic regimes on north Australian wet season rainfall trends, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 117, article no. ARTN D10102, DOI:10.1029/2012JD017472. [PDF]
• Martinez-Alvarado O, Gray SL, Catto JL, Clark PA. (2012) Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 7, no. 2, article no. ARTN 024014, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024014. [PDF]
• Catto JL, Jakob C, Berry G, Nicholls N. (2012) Relating global precipitation to atmospheric fronts, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 39, article no. ARTN L10805, DOI:10.1029/2012GL051736. [PDF]

2011

• Catto JL, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI. (2011) Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate in the HiGEM High-Resolution Climate Model, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 24, no. 20, pages 5336-5352, DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4181.1. [PDF]

2010

• Catto JL, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI. (2010) Can Climate Models Capture the Structure of Extratropical Cyclones?, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 23, no. 7, pages 1621-1635, DOI:10.1175/2009JCLI3318.1. [PDF]

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