Overview

Publications

The Publications link to the right is an automatic list - if you would like copies for personal use then please refer to my manual list of publications. Or check out google scholar for a list of my citations, which is slightly more up-to-date than my researcherID summary on web of science.

Research interests

I am interested in making intelligent use of statistical modelling to provide deeper insight into weather and climate processes and improve our ability to forecast and reduce risk. These are some of the issues my recent research is currently addressing:

• How to reliably combine and recalibrate climate change simulations to make real world projections?
• How to quantify the rarity of extreme multi-decadal climate trends?
• How to fundamentally improve the detection and attribution of climate change trends?
• Why are extreme events spatially independent in turbulence and other physical systems?
• What is the risk of the compound extreme rain and winds in mid-latitude storms?

One recent interest is in quantifying the global mean warming trend and I've made this page recently that automatically gives the latest estimate: How close are we to 1.5 degrees global mean warming?

I am happy to make new collaborations if I can add value to them so please email me if:

• You have a research project/proposal that could benefit from my insight;
• You require consultancy advice on either climate change or storm risk;
• You wish to do a PhD project under my supervision.

Brief biography

Professor David B. Stephenson is Director of the Exeter Climate Systems (XCS) research centre, which has grown impressively since he founded it upon his arrival in Exeter in 2007.

His research focuses on the development and novel application of statistical modelling to understand climate processes and predictions. Since 1989, he has published more than 180 well-cited papers and a leading book on forecast verification (H-index of 75). He was one of the authors in the 2013 IPCC 5th assessment report: lead author on chapter 14 and contributing author on chapters 2 and 9.

He is an elected member of the prestigious Academia Europaea – the European Academy of Science. In 2012, he was awarded the Adrian Gill prize of the Royal Meteorological Society for pioneering interdisciplinary collaboration between climate and statistical science. From 2003-2009, he served as Editor for the Journal of Climate and from 2007-10 was an expert member on the WMO Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification. He is currently co-chair of the climate change task force of the Royal Statistical Society.

He has also developed successful partnerships with industry, which has ensured that his research has been successfully translated to improve decision-making and create wealth. In 2006, he was a founding member of the Willis Research Network, one of the world's largest partnerships between academia and the insurance industry. While Met Office joint chair (2007-12), he helped initiate and design the Met Office Academic Partnership.

He received a 1st class Honours degree in Physics at Oxford University (1982-1985) and received a PhD in Theoretical Particle Physics from Edinburgh University (1982-1988) (supervised by Profs. Peter Higgs and Richard Kenway). Concerning mathematical genealogy, he is the direct offspring of Nobel prize-winner Peter Higgs and has an Erdos number of 4.

Former PhD Students

I am very proud that all of my former PhD students have graduated successfully and have gone on to have interesting careers (mostly in research). I have successfully supervised more than 20 PhD thesis projects (see below for ones where I have been main supervisor).

• Donald Cummins (2021) Foundational basis for optimal climate change detection from energy-balance and cointegration models. Current affiliation: Meteo-France.

• Laura Dawkins (2016) Statistical modelling of European windstorm footprints to explore hazard characteristics and insured loss. Current affiliation: senior scientist at the UK Met Office.

• Philip Sansom (2014) Statistical methods for quantifying uncertainty in climate projections from ensembles of climate models. Current affiliation: senior scientist at the UK Met Office.

• Alasdair Hunter (2014) Quantifying and understanding the aggregate risk of natural hazards. Current affiliation: Barcelona Supercomputing Centre.

• Alemtsehai Turasie (2012) Cointegration modelling of climatic time series. Current affiliation: senior lecturer in statistics at Adelphi University, New York.

• Rachel Lowe (2011) Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk : Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil. Current affiliation: research Professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

• Chun Kit Ho (2010) Projecting extreme heat-related mortality in Europe under climate change. Current affiliation: Hong Kong Observatory.

• Pascal Mailier (2007) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones. Current affiliation: Senior Scientist at the Royal Meteorological Institution, Belgium.

• Caio Coelho (2005) Forecast calibration and combination : Bayesian assimilation of seasonal climate predictions. Current affiliation: senior scientist at Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research CPTEC CPTEC.

• Mathew Sapiano (2004) Trends and variablity in observations of winter precipitation. Current affiliation: Senior Statistician, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, US.

• Tim Mosedale (2004) North Atlantic Ocean-atmosphere interaction using simple and complex models. Current affiliation: Head of Value Analytics and Modelling at Lloyds Banking Group.

• Barbara Casati (2004) New approaches for the verification of spatial precipitation forecasts. Current affiliation: senior scientist at Environment Canada.

If you would like to read their theses then please type the title or name into the search engine on the ETHOS database.

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Publications

_{Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.}

| 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1988 |

2023

• Priestley MDK, Stephenson DB, Scaife AA, Bannister D, Allen CJT, Wilkie D. (2023) Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, volume 23, no. 12, pages 3845-3861, DOI:10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023. [PDF]
• Stephenson DB, Turasie AA, Cummins DP. (2023) More Accurate Climate Trend Attribution by Using Cointegrating Vector Time Series Models, Sustainability, volume 15, no. 16, pages 12142-12142, DOI:10.3390/su151612142. [PDF]
• Joos F, Hameau A, Frolicher TL, Stephenson DB. (2023) Anthropogenic Attribution of the Increasing Seasonal Amplitude in Surface Ocean pCO₂, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 50, no. 13, article no. ARTN e2023GL102857, DOI:10.1029/2023GL102857. [PDF]
• Priestley MDK, Stephenson DB, Scaife AA, Bannister D, Allen CJT, Wilkie D. (2023) Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the NAO, and potential future risks, DOI:10.5194/nhess-2023-22. [PDF]

2022

• Stephenson DB, Turasie A, Cummins D. (2022) More accurate detection and attribution by use of cointegrating vector time series models, DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2398179/v1.
• Cummins DP, Stephenson DB, Stott PA. (2022) Could detection and attribution of climate change trends be spurious regression?, Clim Dyn, volume 59, no. 9-10, pages 2785-2799, DOI:10.1007/s00382-022-06242-z. [PDF]
• Eade R, Stephenson DB, Scaife AA, Smith DM. (2022) Quantifying the rarity of extreme multi-decadal trends: how unusual was the late twentieth century trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation?, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 58, no. 5-6, pages 1555-1568, DOI:10.1007/s00382-021-05978-4. [PDF]

2021

• Sansom PG, Cummins D, Siegert S, Stephenson DB. (2021) Towards Reliable Probabilistic Time-Series Projections of Global Mean Surface Temperature, DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1103739/v1. [PDF]
• Sansom PG, Cummins D, Siegert S, Stephenson DB. (2021) Towards reliable projections of global mean surface temperature, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.2101.08198.
• Owen LE, Catto JL, Stephenson DB, Dunstone NJ. (2021) Compound precipitation and wind extremes over Europe and their relationship to extratropical cyclones, Weather and Climate Extremes, volume 33, pages 100342-100342, article no. 100342, DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100342. [PDF]
• Owen LE, Catto JL, Dunstone NJ, Stephenson DB. (2021) How well can a seasonal forecast system represent three hourly compound wind and precipitation extremes over Europe?, Environmental Research Letters, volume 16, no. 7, pages 074019-074019, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac092e. [PDF]
• Sansom PG, Cummins D, Siegert S, Stephenson DB. (2021) Towards reliable projections of global mean surface temperature. [PDF]
• Sansom PG, Stephenson DB, Bracegirdle TJ. (2021) On Constraining Projections of Future Climate Using Observations and Simulations From Multiple Climate Models, Journal of the American Statistical Association, volume 116, no. 534, pages 546-557, DOI:10.1080/01621459.2020.1851696. [PDF]

2020

• Fosser G, Kendon EJ, Stephenson D, Tucker S. (2020) Convection‐Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 47, no. 13, DOI:10.1029/2020gl088151. [PDF]
• Pope ECD, Stephenson DB, Jackson DR. (2020) An Adaptive Markov Chain Approach for Probabilistic Forecasting of Categorical Events, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, volume 148, no. 9, pages 3681-3691, DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0239.1. [PDF]
• Stoffel M, Stephenson DB, Haywood JM. (2020) Antipyretic Medication for a Feverish Planet, Earth Systems and Environment, volume 4, no. 4, pages 757-762, DOI:10.1007/s41748-020-00182-6.
• Cummins D, Stephenson DB, Stott PA. (2020) A new energy-balance approach to linear filtering for estimating effective radiative forcing from temperature time series, Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography (ASCMO), volume 6, pages 91-102, DOI:10.5194/ascmo-6-91-2020. [PDF]
• Cummins DP, Stephenson DB, Stott PA. (2020) Optimal Estimation of Stochastic Energy Balance Model Parameters, Journal of Climate, volume 33, no. 18, pages 7909-7926, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0589.1. [PDF]
• Hemri S, Bhend J, Liniger MA, Manzanas R, Siegert S, Stephenson DB, Gutiérrez JM, Brookshaw A, Doblas-Reyes FJ. (2020) How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?, Climate Dynamics, volume 55, no. 5-6, pages 1141-1157, DOI:10.1007/s00382-020-05314-2.

2019

• Stephenson DB. (2019) Climate Modelling, Handbook of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, Taylor & Francis, 641-656, DOI:10.1201/9781315152509-32.
• Siegert S, Stephenson DB. (2019) Chapter 15 Forecast Recalibration and Multimodel Combination, Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction, Elsevier, 321-336, DOI:10.1016/b978-0-12-811714-9.00015-2.
• Pinto JG, Pantillon F, Ludwig P, Deroche M-S, Leoncini G, Raible CC, Shaffrey LC, Stephenson DB. (2019) From Atmospheric Dynamics to Insurance Losses: An Interdisciplinary Workshop on European Storms, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 100, no. 6, pages ES175-ES178, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0026.1. [PDF]
• Sansom PG, Williamson DB, Stephenson DB. (2019) State space models for non‐stationary intermittently coupled systems: an application to the North Atlantic oscillation, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), DOI:10.1111/rssc.12354.

2018

• Dawkins LC, Stephenson DB. (2018) On the relevance of extremal dependence for spatial statistical modelling of natural hazards, pages 1-28, DOI:10.5194/nhess-2018-102.
• Stephenson DB, Hunter A, Youngman B, Cook I. (2018) Chapter 3 Towards a More Dynamical Paradigm for Natural Catastrophe Risk Modeling, Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters, Elsevier, 63-77, DOI:10.1016/b978-0-12-804071-3.00003-3.
• Siegert S, Stephenson D. (2018) Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination, Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting, Elsevier.
• Barnett RL, Bernatchez P, Garneau M, Brain MJ, Charman DJ, Stephenson DB, Haley S, Sanderson N. (2018) Supplementary Material to Late Holocene sea-level changes in eastern Québec and potential drivers, Barnett et al., JQSR.
• Beven KJ, Almeida S, Aspinall WP, Bates PD, Blazkova S, Borgomeo E, Freer J, Goda K, Hall JW, Phillips JC. (2018) Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, volume 18, no. 10, pages 2741-2768, DOI:10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018.
• Sansom PG, Stephenson DB, Williamson DB. (2018) State-space modeling of intra-seasonal persistence in daily climate indices: a data-driven approach for seasonal forecasting. [PDF]
• Figueiredo R, Martina MLV, Stephenson DB, Youngman BD. (2018) A Probabilistic Paradigm for the Parametric Insurance of Natural Hazards, Risk Anal, volume 38, no. 11, pages 2400-2414, DOI:10.1111/risa.13122. [PDF]

2017

• Stephenson DB, Hunter A, Youngman B, Cook I. (2017) Towards a More Dynamical Paradigm for Natural Catastrophe Risk Modeling, Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters, 63-77, DOI:10.1016/B978-0-12-804071-3.00003-3.
• Beven KJ, Almeida S, Aspinall WP, Bates PD, Blazkova S, Borgomeo E, Goda K, Hall JW, Phillips JC, Simpson M. (2017) Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 1. A review of different natural hazard areas, pages 1-53, DOI:10.5194/nhess-2017-250.
• Sansom PG, Stephenson DB, Bracegirdle TJ. (2017) On constraining projections of future climate using observations and simulations from multiple climate models, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1711.04139.
• Sansom PG, Williamson DB, Stephenson DB. (2017) State space models for non-stationary intermittently coupled systems: an application to the North Atlantic Oscillation, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1711.04135.
• Sansom PG, Williamson DB, Stephenson DB. (2017) State space models for non-stationary intermittently coupled systems: an application to the North Atlantic Oscillation. [PDF]
• Siegert S, Bellprat O, Ménégoz M, Stephenson DB, Doblas-Reyes FJ. (2017) Detecting improvements in forecast correlation skill: Statistical testing and power analysis, Monthly Weather Review, volume 145, no. 2, pages 437-450, DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0037.1.
• Stephenson DB, Hunter A, Youngman BD, Cook I. (2017) Towards a more Dynamical Paradigm for Natural Catastrophe Risk Modelling, Risk Modelling for Hazards and Disasters, Elsevier. [PDF]

2016

• Dawkins LC, Stephenson DB, Lockwood JF, Maisey PE. (2016) The 21st Century Decline in Damaging European Windstorms, volume 0, pages 1-17, DOI:10.5194/nhess-2016-121.
• Beven KJ, Almeida S, Aspinall WP, Bates PD, Blazkova S, Borgomeo E, Goda K, Phillips JC, Simpson M, Smith PJ. (2016) Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: Different natural hazard areas, volume 2016, pages 1-74, DOI:10.5194/nhess-2015-295.
• Youngman BD, Stephenson DB. (2016) Inference for spatial processes using imperfect data from measurements and numerical simulations, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1609.07714.
• Stiller-Reeve MA, Stephenson DB, Spengler T. (2016) New Tools for Comparing Beliefs about the Timing of Recurrent Events with Climate Time Series Datasets, Weather Climate and Society, volume 8, no. 4, pages 493-506, DOI:10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0054.1. [PDF]
• Economou T, Stephenson DB, Rougier JC, Neal RA, Mylne KR. (2016) On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and physical sciences, volume 472, no. 2194, DOI:10.1098/rspa.2016.0295. [PDF]
• Simpson M, James R, Hall JW, Borgomeo E, Ives MC, Almeida S, Kingsborough A, Economou T, Stephenson DB, Wagener T. (2016) Decision Analysis for Management of Natural Hazards, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, volume 41, pages 15.1-15.28, DOI:10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-090011.
• Dawkins LC, Stephenson DB, Lockwood JF, Maisey PE. (2016) The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, volume 16, no. 8, pages 1999-2007, DOI:10.5194/nhess-16-1999-2016.
• Hewitt AJ, Sansom PG, Booth BBB, Jones CD, Robertson ES, Wiltshire AJ, Stephenson DB, Yip S. (2016) Sources of uncertainty in future projections of the carbon cycle, Journal of Climate, volume 29, pages 7203-7213, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0161.1.
• Sansom PG, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Goddard L, Mason SJ. (2016) Best practices for post-processing ensemble climate forecasts, part I: selecting appropriate recalibration methods, Journal of Climate, volume 29, pages 7247-7264, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0868.1.
• Pinto JG, Ulbrich S, Economou T, Stephenson DB, Karrenman M, Shaffrey LC. (2016) Robustness of serial clustering of extra-tropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method, Tellus A, volume 68, DOI:10.3402/tellusa.v68.32204.
• Youngman BD, Stephenson DB. (2016) A geostatistical extreme-value framework for fast simulation of natural hazard events, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, volume 472, no. 2189, DOI:10.1098/rspa.2015.0855.
• Pianosi F, Beven K, Freer J, Hall JW, Rougier J, Stephenson DB, Wagener T. (2016) Sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A systematic review with practical workflow, Environmental Modelling and Software, volume 79, pages 214-232, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.008.
• Lowe R, Coelho CA, Barcellos C, Carvalho MS, Catão RC, Coelho GE, Ramalho WM, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB, Rodó X. (2016) Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil, eLife, article no. e11285, DOI:10.7554/eLife.11285.
• Davidson JEH, Stephenson DB, Turasie AA. (2016) Time series modeling of paleoclimate data, Environmetrics, volume 27, no. 1, pages 55-65, DOI:10.1002/env.2373.
• Siegert S, Stephenson DB, Sansom PG, Scaife AA, Eade R, Arribas A. (2016) A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?, Journal of Climate, volume 29, no. 3, pages 995-1012, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0196.1.

2015

• Beven KJ, Aspinall WP, Bates PD, Borgomeo E, Goda K, Hall JW, Page T, Phillips JC, Rougier JT, Simpson M. (2015) Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of the issues, volume 3, no. 12, pages 7333-7377, DOI:10.5194/nhessd-3-7333-2015.
• Siegert S, Stephenson DB, Sansom PG, Scaife AA, Eade R, Arribas A. (2015) A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1504.01933.
• Economou T, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT. (2015) Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1501.06377.
• Lowe R, Barcellos C, Coelho CA, Catao RDC, Bailey TC, Coelho GE, Ramalho WM, Carvalho MS, Stephenson DB, Rodo X. (2015) EVALUATION OF A DENGUE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, volume 93, no. 4, pages 45-45. [PDF]
• Bracegirdle TJ, Stephenson DB, Turner J, Phillips T. (2015) The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 42, no. 24, pages 10832-10839, DOI:10.1002/2015GL067055.
• Economou T, Stephenson DB, Pinto JG, Shaffrey LC, Zappa G. (2015) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 141, no. 693, pages 3076-3087, DOI:10.1002/qj.2591.
• Mittermaier MP, Stephenson DB. (2015) Inherent Bounds on Forecast Accuracy due to Observation Uncertainty Caused by Temporal Sampling, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, volume 143, no. 10, pages 4236-4243, DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0173.1. [PDF]
• Hunter A, Stephenson DB, Economou T, Holland M, Cook I. (2015) New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 142, no. 694, pages 243-256, DOI:10.1002/qj.2649. [PDF]
• van Oldenborgh GJ, Stephenson DB, Sterl A, Vautard R, Yiou P, Drijfhout SS, von Storch H, van den Dool H. (2015) CORRESPONDENCE: Drivers of the 2013/14 winter floods in the UK, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, volume 5, no. 6, pages 490-491, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2612. [PDF]
• Van Oldenborgh GJ, Stephenson DB, Sterl A, Vautard R, Yiou P, Drijfhout SS, Von Storch H, Van Den Dool H. (2015) Drivers of the 2013/14 winter floods in the UK, Nature Climate Change, volume 5, no. 6, pages 490-491, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2612.
• Lowe R, Rodo X, Barcellos C, Carvalho M, Coelho CAS, Bailey TC, Jupp T, Stephenson DB, Coelho GE, Graham R. (2015) Dengue epidemic early warning system for Brazil, UNISDR Scientific and Technical Advisory Group, volume Case Studies 2015. [PDF]
• Lowe R, Coelho C, Carvalho M, Barcellos C, Bailey TC, Stephenson D, Rodo X. (2015) Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts of epidemics, Lancet Infectious Diseases (Correspondence), volume 15, no. 1.

2014

• Roberts JF, Champion AJ, Dawkins LC, Hodges KI, Shaffrey LC, Stephenson DB, Stringer MA, Thornton HE, Youngman BD. (2014) The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979–2012, volume 2, no. 3, pages 2011-2048, DOI:10.5194/nhessd-2-2011-2014.
• Siegert S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2014) Evaluating ensemble forecasts by the Ignorance score -- Correcting the finite-ensemble bias, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1410.8249.
• Roberts JF, Champion AJ, Dawkins LC, Hodges KI, Shaffrey LC, Stephenson DB, Stringer MA, Thornton HE, Youngman BD. (2014) The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, volume 14, no. 9, pages 2487-2501, DOI:10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014.
• Kwiatkowski L, Halloran PR, Mumby PJ, Stephenson DB. (2014) What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?, Climate Dynamics, volume 43, no. 5-6, pages 1483-1496, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1967-6.
• Tye MR, Stephenson DB, Holland GJ, Katz RW. (2014) A weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions, Journal of Climate, volume 27, no. 16, pages 6119-6133, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00121.1.
• Lowe R, Barcellos C, Coelho CAS, Bailey TC, Coelho GE, Graham R, Jupp T, Ramalho WM, Carvalho MS, Stephenson DB. (2014) Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: An early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, volume 14, no. 7, pages 619-626, DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9.
• Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2014) Comments on "H. L. Wagner's unbiased hit rate and the assessment of categorical forecasting accuracy", Weather and Forecasting, volume 29, no. 3, pages 763-764, DOI:10.1175/WAF-D-14-00004.1.
• Economou T, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT. (2014) Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms, Annals of Applied Statistics, volume 8, pages 2223-2246, DOI:10.1214/14-AOAS766. [PDF]

2013

• Christensen JH, Kanikicharla KK, Aldrian E, An SI, Albuquerque Cavalcanti IF, de Castro M, Dong W, Goswami P, Hall A, Kanyanga JK. (2013) Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change, Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1217-1308, DOI:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028.
• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2013) Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?, Climate Dynamics, volume 41, no. 5-6, pages 1475-1495, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1568-9.
• Zappa G, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI, Sansom PG, Stephenson DB. (2013) A multimodel assessment of future projections of north atlantic and european extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Climate, volume 26, no. 16, pages 5846-5862, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1.
• Yip S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Hawkins E. (2013) Reply to "Comments on 'A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions'", Journal of Climate, volume 26, no. 12, pages 4377-4377, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00858.1.
• Sansom PG, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT, Zappa G, Shaffrey L. (2013) Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments, Journal of Climate, volume 26, no. 12, pages 4017-4037, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00462.1.
• Lowe R, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB, Jupp TE, Graham RJ, Barcellos C, Carvalho MS. (2013) The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil, Statistics in Medicine, volume 32, no. 5, pages 864-883, DOI:10.1002/sim.5549.
• Villarini G, Smith JA, Vitolo R, Stephenson DB. (2013) On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns, International Journal of Climatology, volume 33, no. 3, pages 629-640, DOI:10.1002/joc.3458.
• Bracegirdle TJ, Stephenson DB. (2013) On the robustness of emergent constraints used in multimodel climate change projections of arctic warming, Journal of Climate, volume 26, no. 2, pages 669-678, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00537.1.
• Fricker TE, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2013) Three recommendations for evaluating climate predictions, Meteorological Applications, volume 20, pages 246-255, DOI:10.1002/met.1409. [PDF]
• Sansom PG, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT, Zappa G, Shaffrey L. (2013) A simple framework for weighting climate change projections in multi-model ensembles, Journal of Climate, volume 26, pages 4017-4037, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00462.1. [PDF]
• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2013) Does increasing spatial resolution improve the simulation of UK daily precipitation in a regional climate model?, Climate Dynamics, volume 41, pages 1475-1495, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1568-9. [PDF]
• Goddard L, Fricker T, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, ET AL. (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments, Climate Dynamics, volume 40, pages 245-272, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2. [PDF]

2012

• Stephenson D, Bryan K. (2012) Large‐scale electric and magnetic fields generated by the oceans, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, volume 97, no. C10, pages 15467-15480, DOI:10.1029/92jc01400. [PDF]
• Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2012) Introduction, Forecast Verification, Wiley, 1-9, DOI:10.1002/9781119960003.ch1.
• Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2012) Epilogue: New Directions in Forecast Verification, Forecast Verification, Wiley, 221-230, DOI:10.1002/9781119960003.ch12.
• Bracegirdle TJ, Stephenson DB. (2012) Higher precision estimates of regional polar warming by ensemble regression of climate model projections, Climate Dynamics, volume 39, no. 12, pages 2805-2821, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1330-3.
• Kvamstø NG, Steinskog DJ, Stephenson DB, Tjøstheim DB. (2012) Estimation of trends in extreme melt-season duration at Svalbard, International Journal of Climatology, volume 32, no. 14, pages 2227-2239, DOI:10.1002/joc.3395.
• Stephenson DB, Collins M, Rougier JC, Chandler RE. (2012) Statistical problems in the probabilistic prediction of climate change†, Environmetrics, volume 23, no. 5, pages 364-372, DOI:10.1002/env.2153.
• Collins M, Chandler RE, Cox PM, Huthnance JM, Rougier J, Stephenson DB. (2012) Quantifying future climate change, Nature Climate Change, volume 2, no. 6, pages 403-409, DOI:10.1038/nclimate1414.
• Folland CK, Scaife AA, Lindesay J, Stephenson DB. (2012) How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?, International Journal of Climatology, volume 32, no. 6, pages 801-818, DOI:10.1002/joc.2314.
• Ho CK, Stephenson DB, Collins M, Ferro CAT, Brown SJ. (2012) Calibration strategies: a source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 93, pages 21-26, DOI:10.1175/2011BAMS3110.1. [PDF]

2011

• Seierstad IA, Stephenson DB, Kvamstø NG. (2011) How useful are teleconnection patterns for explaining variability in extratropical storminess?, Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, DOI:10.3402/tellusa.v59i2.14939.
• Jupp TE, Lowe R, Coelho CAS, Stephenson DB. (2011) On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1103.1303.
• Walker ELL, Stephenson DB, Crabbe MJC. (2011) El-Niño and coral reefs, pages 209-218.
• Villarini G, Smith JA, Baeck ML, Vitolo R, Stephenson DB, Krajewski WF. (2011) On the frequency of heavy rainfall for the Midwest of the United States, Journal of Hydrology, volume 400, no. 1-2, pages 103-120, DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.027.
• Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2011) Deterministic forecasts of extreme events and warnings, Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, Wiley, 185-202. [PDF]
• Yip S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Hawkins E. (2011) A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions, Journal of Climate, volume 24, pages 4634-4643, DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1. [PDF]
• Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2011) Extremal Dependence Indices: improved verification measures for deterministic forecasts of rare binary events, Weather and Forecasting, volume 26, pages 699-713, DOI:10.1175/WAF-D-10-05030.1. [PDF]
• Lowe R, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB, Graham R, Coelho CAS, Carvalho M, Barcellos C. (2011) Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil, Computers & Geosciences, volume 37, pages 371-381.

2010

• Scinocca J, Stephenson DB, Bailey T, Austin J. (2010) Estimates of past and future ozone trends from multi-model simulations using a flexible smoothing spline methodology, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, volume 115, DOI:10.1029/2009JD013622.
• Hogan RJ, Ferro CAT, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2010) Equitability revisited: why the 'equitable threat score' is not equitable, Weather and Forecasting, volume 25, pages 710-726, DOI:10.1175/2009WAF2222350.1.

2009

• Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Joliffe IT. (2009) Erratum: "Spatial weighting and iterative projection methods for EOFs" (Journal of Climate vol. 22 (2) (234-243)), Journal of Climate, volume 22, no. 11, DOI:10.1175/2008JCLI3126.1.
• Primo C, Ferro CAT, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2009) Combination and calibration methods for probabilistic forecasts of binary events, Monthly Weather Review, volume 137, no. 3, pages 1142-1149, DOI:10.1175/2008MWR2579.1. [PDF]
• Monahan AH, Fyfe JC, Ambaum MHP, Stephenson DB, North GR. (2009) Empirical Orthogonal Functions: The Medium is the Message, J CLIMATE, volume 22, no. 24, pages 6501-6514, DOI:10.1175/2009JCLI3062.1.
• Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Jolliffe IT. (2009) Spatial Weighting and Iterative Projection Methods for EOFs, Journal of Climate, volume 22, pages 234-243, DOI:10.1175/2008JCLI2147.1.
• Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Joliffe IT. (2009) Spatial Weighting and Iterative Projection Methods for EOFs (vol 22, pg 234, 2009), JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 22, no. 11, pages 3175-3175, DOI:10.1175/2008JCLI3126.1. [PDF]
• Vitolo R, Stephenson DB, Cook IM, Mitchell-Wallace K. (2009) Serial clustering of intense European storms, METEOROL ZEITSCHRIFT, volume 18, no. 4, pages 411-424, DOI:10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0393. [PDF]

2008

• CROMPTON LA, WHEELER TR, FRANCE J, CLARY O, FOWLER AC, ROOSE T, CROUT N, JIAO Y, CRAIGON J, WOOD A. (2008) Proceedings of the Fortieth Meeting of the Agricultural Research Modellers' Group, The Journal of Agricultural Science, volume 146, no. 6, pages 717-731, DOI:10.1017/s0021859608008083.
• Kvamstø NG, Song Y, Seierstad IA, Sorteberg A, Stephenson DB. (2008) Clustering of cyclones in the ARPEGE general circulation model, Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, volume 60, no. 3, DOI:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00307.x.
• Crabbe MJC, Walker ELL, Stephenson DB. (2008) The impact of weather and climate extremes on coral growth, Climate Extremes and Society, 165-188, DOI:10.1017/CBO9780511535840.011.
• Stephenson DB. (2008) Definition, diagnosis, and origin of extreme weather and climate events, Climate Extremes and Society, 11-23, DOI:10.1017/CBO9780511535840.003.
• Kvamstø NG, Song Y, Seierstad IA, Sorteberg A, Stephenson DB. (2008) Clustering of cyclones in the ARPEGE general circulation model, Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, volume 60 A, no. 3, pages 547-556, DOI:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00307.x.
• Mailier PJ, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2008) Assessing and reporting the quality of commercial weather forecasts, Meteorological Applications, volume 15, no. 4, pages 423-429, DOI:10.1002/met.85.
• Coelho CAS, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Steinskog DJ. (2008) Methods for exploring spatial and temporal variability of extreme events in climate data, Journal of Climate, volume 21, no. 10, pages 2072-2092, DOI:10.1175/2007JCLI1781.1. [PDF]
• Stephenson DB. (2008) Chapter 1: Definition, diagnosis, and origin of extreme weather and climate events, CLIMATE EXTREMES AND SOCIETY, Cambridge University Press, 11-23.
• Casati B, Wilson LJ, Stephenson DB, Nurmi P, Ghelli A, Pocernich M, Damrath U, Ebert EE, Brown BG, Mason S. (2008) Forecast verification: current status and future directions, Meteorological Applications, volume 15, pages 3-18, DOI:10.1002/met.52. [PDF]
• Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2008) Proper Scores for Probability Forecasts Can Never Be Equitable, Monthly Weather Review, volume 136, pages 1505-1510, DOI:10.1175/2007MWR2194.1. [PDF]
• Kvamsto NG, Song Y, Seierstad IA, Sorteberg A, Stephenson DB. (2008) Clustering of cyclones in the ARPEGE general circulation model, TELLUS A, volume 60, no. 3, pages 547-556, DOI:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00307.x. [PDF]
• Stephenson DB, Coelho CAS, Jolliffe IT. (2008) Two extra components in the Brier score decomposition, Weather and Forecasting, volume 23, no. 4, pages 752-757, DOI:10.1175/2007WAF2006116.1. [PDF]
• Mason SJ, Stephenson DB. (2008) How do we know whether seasonal climate forecasts are any good?, Gallipoli, Italy, SPRINGER, 101 PHILIP DRIVE, NORWELL, MA 02061 USA, 259-289, DOI:10.1007/978-1-4020-6992-5_10.
• Coelho CAS, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Steinskog DJ. (2008) Methods for exploring spatial and temporal variability of extreme events in climate data, Journal of Climate, volume 21, pages 2072-2092. [PDF]
• Doblas-Reyes FJ, Coelho CAS, Stephenson DB. (2008) How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?, Meteorological Applications, volume 15, no. 1, pages 155-162, DOI:10.1002/met.50. [PDF]
• Stephenson DB. (2008) An introduction to probability forecasting, Gallipoli, Italy, SPRINGER, 101 PHILIP DRIVE, NORWELL, MA 02061 USA, 235-257, DOI:10.1007/978-1-4020-6992-5_9.
• Stephenson DB, Casati B, Ferro CAT, Wilson CA. (2008) The extreme dependency score: a non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events, Meteorological Applications, volume 15, no. 1, pages 41-50, DOI:10.1002/met.53. [PDF]

2007

• Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2007) Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures, "Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment", volume 119, pages 190-204, DOI:10.1016/j.agee.2006.07.009. [PDF]
• Hannachi A, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2007) Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: A review, Int. J. Climatology, volume 27, pages 1119-1152, DOI:10.1002/joc.1499. [PDF]
• Seierstad IA, Stephenson DB, Kvamsto NG. (2007) How useful are teleconnection patterns for explaining variability in extratropical storminess?, Tellus A, volume 59, no. 2, DOI:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00226.x. [PDF]
• Cox PM, Stephenson DB. (2007) A changing climate for prediction, Science, volume 317, pages 207-208, DOI:10.1126/science.1145956. [PDF]
• Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CAT, Frei C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylha K, Koffi B. (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections, Climatic Change, volume 81, pages 71-95, DOI:10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z. [PDF]

2006

• New M, Hewitson B, Stephenson DB, Tsiga A, Kruger A, Manhique A, Gomez B, Coelho CAS, Masisi DN, Kululanga E. (2006) Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, volume 111, no. 14, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006289.
• Mailier PJ, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT, Hodges KI. (2006) The seriality of extratropical cyclones, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 87, no. 10, pages 1317-1318.
• Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F. (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, volume 111, no. 5, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006290.
• Mosedale TJ, Stephenson DB, Collins M, Mills TC. (2006) Granger Causality of Coupled Climate Processes: Ocean Feedback on the North Atlantic Oscillation, Journal of Climate, volume 19, no. 7, pages 1182-1194, DOI:10.1175/JCLI3653.1. [PDF]
• Kettlewell PS, Easey J, Stephenson DB, Poulton PR. (2006) Soil moisture mediates association between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and summer growth in the Park Grass Experiment, Proc Biol Sci, volume 273, no. 1590, pages 1149-1154, DOI:10.1098/rspb.2005.3428. [PDF]
• Alexander LV, Stephenson DBE. (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), volume 111, no. D05109, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006290. [PDF]
• Coelho CAS, Stephenson DB, Balmaseda M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, van O. (2006) Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America, J. of Climate, volume 19, no. 15, pages 3704-3721, DOI:10.1175/JCLI3801.1. [PDF]
• Hannachi A, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB, Trendafilov N. (2006) In search of simple structures in climate: Simplifying EOFs, Int. J. Climatology, volume 26, pages 7-28, DOI:10.1002/joc.1243. [PDF]
• Kettlewell P, Easey J, Stephenson DB, Poulton P. (2006) Soil moisture mediates association between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and summer growth in the Park Grass Experiment, Proc Roy Soc B, volume 273, no. 1590, pages 1149-1154. [PDF]
• Mailier PJ, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2006) Quality of Weather Forecasts: Review and Recommendations, Royal Meteorological Society Project Report, pages 89-89. [PDF]
• Coelho CAS, Stephenson DB, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Balmaseda M, Guetter A, van Oldenborgh GJ. (2006) A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America, METEOROL APPLICATIONS, volume 13, no. 1, pages 73-82, DOI:10.1017/S1350482705002045. [PDF]
• Sapiano MRP, Stephenson DB, Grubb HJ, Arkin PA. (2006) Diagnosis of Variability and Trends in a Global Precipitation Dataset Using a Physically Motivated Statistical Model, Journal of Climate, volume 19, no. 17, pages 4154-4166. [PDF]
• Mailier PJ, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT, Hodges KI. (2006) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones, Monthly Weather Review, volume 134, pages 2224-2240, DOI:10.1175/MWR3160.1. [PDF]
• dbs001, Harrison RG. (2006) Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds, Proceedings of The Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, volume 462, no. 2068, pages 1221-1233, DOI:10.1098/rspa.2005.1628.
• New M, Hewitson B, Stephenson DBE. (2006) Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over Southern and West Africa, J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), volume 111, no. D14102, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006289. [PDF]
• Coelho CAS, Stephenson DB, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Balmaseda M. (2006) The skill of empirical and combined/calibrated coupled multi-model South American seasonal predictions during ENSO, Advances in Geosciences, volume 6, pages 51-55. [PDF]
• Stephenson DB, Pavan V, Collins M, Junge MM, Quadrelli R, Participating CMIP2 Modelling Grou. (2006) North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment, CLIM DYNAM, volume 27, no. 4, pages 401-420, DOI:10.1007/s00382-006-0140-x.

2005

• Stephenson DB, Coelho CAS, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Balmaseda M. (2005) Forecast assimilation: a unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions, Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, volume 57, no. 3, DOI:10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14664.
• Stephenson DB. (2005) Comment on "color schemes for improved data graphics," by A. Light and P. J. Bartlein, Eos, volume 86, no. 20, DOI:10.1029/2005EO200005.
• Pezzulli S, Frederic P, Majithia S, Sabbagh S, Black E, Sutton R, Stephenson DB. (2005) The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: a hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator, Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, volume 22, no. 2, pages 113-125, DOI:10.1002/asmb.v22:2.
• Atkinson MD, Kettlewell PS, Hollins PD, Stephenson DB. (2005) Summer climate mediates UK wheat quality response to winter North Atlantic Oscillation, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 130, no. 1-2, pages 27-37, DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.02.002. [PDF]
• McGregor GR, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2005) Projected changes in extreme weather and climate events in Europe, Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Public Health Responses, SPRINGER, 233 SPRING STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10013, UNITED STATES, 13-23, DOI:10.1007/3-540-28862-7_2.
• Panagiotopoulos F, Shahgedanova M, Hannachi A, Stephenson DB. (2005) Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: a recently declining centre of action, pages 1411-1422, DOI:10.1175/JCLI3352.1. [PDF]
• Pezzulli S, Hannachi A, Stephenson DB. (2005) The Variability of Seasonality, Journal of Climate, volume 18, no. 1, pages 71-88, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-3256.1. [PDF]
• Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2005) Comments on "Discussion of Verification Concepts in Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science", Weather and Forecasting, volume 20, no. 5, pages 796-800, DOI:10.1175/WAF877.1. [PDF]
• Ferro CAT, Hannachi A, Stephenson DB. (2005) Simple non-parametric techniques for exploring changing probability distributions of weather, Journal of Climate, volume 18, no. 21, pages 4344-4354, DOI:10.1175/JCLI3518.1. [PDF]
• dbs001, Balmaseda M, Coelho CAS, Doblas-Reyes FJ. (2005) Forecast Assimilation: A unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions, Tellus A, volume 57, no. 3, pages 253-264, DOI:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00110.x.
• Mosedale TJ, Stephenson DB, Collins M. (2005) Atlantic Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: A Stochastic Climate Model-Based Diagnosis, Journal of Climate, volume 18, no. 7, pages 1086-1095, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-3315.1. [PDF]

2004

• Stephenson DB, Hannachi A, O'Niell A. (2004) On the existence of multiple climate regimes, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 130, no. 597 PART B, pages 583-605, DOI:10.1256/qj.02.146.
• Hannachi A, Stephenson DB, Sperber KR. (2004) Erratum: Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO. 1 Climate dynamics (2003) 20:241-256, Climate Dynamics, volume 22, no. 1, pages 69-70, DOI:10.1007/s00382-003-0377-6.
• Beniston M, Stephenson DB. (2004) Extreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditions, Global and Planetary Change, volume 44, pages 1-9, DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.001. [PDF]
• Hollins PD, Kettlewell PS, Atkinson MD, Stephenson DM, Corden JM, Millington WM, Mullins J. (2004) Relationship between airborne fungal spore concentration of Cladosporium and the summer climate at two sites in Britain, Int. J. of Biometeorology, volume 48, no. 3, pages 137-141, DOI:10.1007/s00484-003-0188-9.
• Casati B, Ross G, Stephenson DB. (2004) A new intensity-scale approach for the verification of spatial precipitation forecasts, Meteorological Applications, volume 11, pages 141-154, DOI:10.1017/S1350482704001239. [PDF]
• Hannachi A, Stephenson DB, Sperber KR. (2004) Corrigendum: Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in ENSO, Climate Dynamics, volume 22, no. 1, pages 69-70, DOI:10.1007/s00382-003-0377-6. [PDF]
• G�ber M, Wilson CA, Milton SF, Stephenson DB. (2004) Fairplay in the verification of operational quantitative precipitation forecasts, Journal of Hydrology, volume 288, pages 225-236, DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.016. [PDF]
• dbs001, Hannachi A, O'Neill A. (2004) On the existence of multiple climate regimes, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 130, no. 597, pages 583-605, DOI:10.1256/qj.02.146.
• Kvamst� NG, Skeie P, Stephenson DB. (2004) Impact of Labrador sea-ice on the North Atlantic Oscillation, International Journal of Climatology, volume 24, no. 5, pages 603-612, DOI:10.1002/joc.1015. [PDF]
• Coelho CAS, Pezzulli S, Balmaseda M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Stephenson DB. (2004) Skill of coupled model seasonal forecasts: A Bayesian assessment of ECMWF ENSO forecasts, ECMWF Technical Memorandum, volume 426, pages 16-16. [PDF]
• Coelho CAS, Pezzulli S, Balmaseda M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Stephenson DB. (2004) Forecast calibration and combination: A simple Bayesian approach for ENSO, Journal of Climate, volume 17, no. 7, pages 1504-1516, DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017. [PDF]
• Hannachi A, Stephenson DB, Sperber KR. (2004) Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 22, no. 1, pages 69-70, DOI:10.1007/s00382-003-0377-6.

2003

• Stephenson DB, Wanner H, Brönnimann S, Luterbacher J. (2003) The history of scientific research on the north atlantic oscillation, Geophysical Monograph Series, 37-50, DOI:10.1029/134GM02.
• Charlton AJ, O'Neill A, Stephenson DB, Lahoz WA, Baldwin MP. (2003) Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere?, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 129, no. 595 PART B, pages 3205-3224, DOI:10.1256/qj.02.232.
• Junge MM, Stephenson DB. (2003) Mediated and direct effects of the North Atlantic ocean on winter temperatures in northwest Europe, International Journal of Climatology, volume 23, no. 3, pages 245-261, DOI:10.1002/joc.867. [PDF]
• Hannachi A, Stephenson DB, Sperber KR. (2003) Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in ENSO, Climate Dynamics, volume 20, no. 2-3, pages 241-256, DOI:10.1007/s00382-003-0377-6. [PDF]
• Kettlewell PS, Stephenson DB, Atkinson MD, Hollins PD. (2003) Summer rainfall and wheat grain quality: relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation, Weather, volume 58, no. 4, pages 155-163, DOI:10.1256/wea.38.02. [PDF]
• Charlton AJ, O'Neill A, Stephenson DB, Lahoz WA, Baldwin MP. (2003) Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere?, Quart. J. of Royal. Met. Soc, volume 129, no. 595, pages 3205-3224, DOI:10.1256/qj.02.232. [PDF]
• Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2003) Forecast Verification: A Practitioner�s Guide in Atmospheric Science, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), volume 168, no. 1, pages 240-240, DOI:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.00347_9.x.
• Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Thompson DWJ, Dunkerton TJ, Charlton AJ, O'Neill A. (2003) Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts, Science, volume 301, pages 636-640, DOI:10.1126/science.1087143. [PDF]
• Doblas-Reyes FJ, Pavan V, Stephenson DB. (2003) The skill of multi-model seasonal forecasts of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, CLIM DYNAM, volume 21, no. 5-6, pages 501-514, DOI:10.1007/s00382-003-0350-4.
• Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Thompson DWJ, Dunkerton TJ, Charlton AJ, O'Neill A. (2003) Stratospheric memory: Effects on the troposphere, 14th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics, San Antonio, Tx, 9th - 13th Jun 2003, 14TH CONFERENCE ON ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC FLUID DYNAMICS, pages 215-220.
• Doblas-Reyes FJ, Pavan V, Stephenson DB. (2003) Multi-model seasonal hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Climate Dynamics, volume 21, no. 5-6, pages 501-514, DOI:10.1007/s00382-003-0350-4. [PDF]
• Stephenson DB, Pavan V. (2003) The North Atlantic Oscillation in coupled climate models: a CMIP1 evaluation, CLIM DYNAM, volume 20, no. 4, pages 381-399, DOI:10.1007/s00382-002-0281-5.

2002

• Panagiotopoulos F, Shahgedanova M, Stephenson DB. (2002) A review of Northern Hemisphere winter-time teleconnection patterns, Journal De Physique. IV : JP, volume 12, no. 10, DOI:10.1051/jp4:20020450.
• Atkinson MD, Kettlewell PS, Hollins PD, Stephenson DB, Parsons ST. (2002) Regression forecast of UK harvest wheat quality from the preceding winter North Atlantic Oscillation, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, volume 112. [PDF]
• Panagiotopoulos F, Shahgedanova M, Stephenson DB. (2002) A Review of Northern Hemisphere winter-time teleconnection patterns, Journal de Physique IV, EDP Sciences, volume 12, no. 10, pages 1027-1047, DOI:10.1051/jp4:20020450. [PDF]
• Panagiotopoulos F, Shahgedanova M, Stephenson DB. (2002) A review of Northern Hemisphere winter-time teleconnection patterns, JOURNAL DE PHYSIQUE IV, volume 12, no. PR10, pages 27-47, DOI:10.1051/jp4:20020450.
• Ambaum MHP, Hoskins BJ, Stephenson DB. (2002) Corrigendum: Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation?, Journal of Climate, volume 15, no. 5, pages 553-553, DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0553:C>2.0.CO;2. [PDF]
• Ambaum MHP, Hoskins BJ, Stephenson DB. (2002) Arctic oscillation or North Atlantic oscillation?, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 14, no. 16, pages 3495-3507, DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3495:AOONAO>2.0.CO;2.

2001

• Atkinson MD, Kettlewell PS, Hollins PD, Stephenson DB, Parsons ST. (2001) Forecasting quality and breadmaking premium of wheat from the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, Aspects of Applied Biology, volume 64, pages 127-128.
• Wanner H, Bronnimann S, Casty C, Gyalistras D, Luterbacher J, Schmutz C, Stephenson DB, Xoplaki E. (2001) North Atlantic Oscillation - Concepts and studies, Surveys in Geophysics, volume 22, no. 4, pages 321-382, DOI:10.1023/A:1014217317898.
• Thornes JE, Stephenson DB. (2001) How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products, Meteorological Applications, volume 8, pages 307-314, DOI:10.1017/S1350482701003061. [PDF]
• Kettlewell PS, Atkinson MD, Stephenson DB, Hollins PD. (2001) Climatic factors mediating the effect of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on wheat quality, Aspects of Applied Biology, volume 64, pages 129-130.
• Antoniadou A, Besse P, Fougeres A-L, Le G, Stephenson DB. (2001) L'Oscillation Atlantique Nord NAO: et son influence sur le climat europeen, Revue de Statistique Appliquee, no. 3, pages 39-60.

2000

• Martin GM, Arpe K, Chauvin F, Ferranti L, Maynard K, Polcher J, Stephenson DB, Tschuck P. (2000) Simulation of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Five European General Circulation Models, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 1, no. 1, pages 37-55, DOI:10.1006/asle.2000.0004.
• Martin GM, Arpe K, Chauvin F, Ferranti L, Maynard K, Polcher J, Stephenson DB, Tschuck P. (2000) Simulation of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Five European General Circulation Models, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 1, no. 1, pages 37-55, DOI:10.1006/asle.2000.0004.
• Besse P, Cardot H, Stephenson DB. (2000) Autoregressive forecasting of some functional climatic variations, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, volume 27, pages 673-687, DOI:10.1111/1467-9469.00215.
• Stephenson DB. (2000) Use of the "odds ratio" for diagnosing forecast skill, WEATHER AND FORECASTING, volume 15, no. 2, pages 221-232, DOI:10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015.
• Stephenson DB, Pavan V, Bojariu R. (2000) Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a random walk?, INT J CLIMATOL, volume 20, no. 1, pages 1-18, DOI:10.1002/joc.1003.
• Douville H, Royer J-F, Polcher J, Cox P, Gedney N, Stephenson DB, Valdes PJ. (2000) Impact of CO2 doubling on the Asian Summer Monsoon: Robust versus model-dependent responses, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, volume 78, no. 4, pages 421-439.
• Stephenson DB, Doblas-Reyes FJ. (2000) Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts, TELLUS A, volume 52, no. 3, pages 300-322, DOI:10.1034/j.1600-0870.2000.d01-5.x.
• Douville H, Planton S, Royer J-F, Stephenson DB, Tyteca S, Kergoat L, Lafont S, Betts RA. (2000) Importance of vegetation feedbacks in doubled-CO2 climate experiment, Journal of Geophysical Research, volume 105, no. D11, pages 14841-14862, DOI:10.1029/1999JD901086.
• Fevrier S, Frankignoul C, Sirven J, Davey MK, Delecluse P, Ineson S, Macias J, Sennechael N, Stephenson DB. (2000) A multivariate intercomparison between three oceanic GCMs using observed current and thermocline depth anomalies in the tropical Pacific during 1985-1992, Journal of Marine Systems, volume 24, no. 3-4, pages 249-275, DOI:10.1016/S0924-7963(99)00089-5.

1999

• Burgers G, Stephenson DB. (1999) The 'Normality' of El Nino, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 26, pages 1027-1030, DOI:10.1029/1999GL900161.
• Macias J, Stephenson DB, Kearsley A. (1999) A basic reference state suitable for anomaly-coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models, Applied Mathematics Letters, volume 12, no. 1, pages 21-24.
• Stephenson DB, Kumar KR, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Royer JF, Chauvin E, Pezzulli S. (1999) Extreme daily rainfall events and their impact on ensemble forecasts of the Indian monsoon, MON WEATHER REV, volume 127, no. 9, pages 1954-1966, DOI:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1954:EDREAT>2.0.CO;2.

1998

• Doblas-Reyes FJ, Valero F, Stephenson DB, Deque, M. (1998) North Atlantic Wintertime Intraseasonal Variability and its Sensitivity to GCM Horizontal Resolution, Tellus A, volume 50A, pages 573-595, DOI:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1998.t01-4-00002.x.
• Ambrizzi T, Kayano MT, Stephenson DB. (1998) A comparison of global tropospheric teleconnections using observed satellite and general circulation model total ozone column data for 1979-91, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 14, no. 2, pages 133-150, DOI:10.1007/s003820050214.
• Orsolini YJ, Stephenson DB, Doblas-Reyes FJ. (1998) Storm track signature in total ozone during the Northern Hemisphere winter, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 25, no. 13, pages 2413-2416, DOI:10.1029/98GL01852.
• Ambrizzi T, Kayano M, Stephenson DB. (1998) Observed and modelled teleconnections using total ozone data, Climate Dynamics, volume 14, pages 133-150.
• Stephenson DB, Chauvin F, Royer JF. (1998) Simulation of the Asian summer monsoon and its dependence on model horizontal resolution, J METEOROL SOC JPN, volume 76, no. 2, pages 237-265.

1997

• Macías J, Stephenson D, Terray L, Belamari S. (1997) Interannual variability simulated in the Tropical Pacific, The Mathematics of Models for Climatology and Environment, Springer Nature, 395-408, DOI:10.1007/978-3-642-60603-8_12.
• Garric G, Stephenson DB, Terray L. (1997) A global coupled atmosphere-sea ice-upper ocean simulation, Comptes Rendus - Academie des Sciences, Serie II: Sciences de la Terre et des Planetes, volume 324, no. 7, pages 529-536.
• Stephenson DB. (1997) Correlation of spatial climate/weather maps and the advantages of using the Mahalanobis metric in predictions, TELLUS A, volume 49, no. 5, pages 513-527, DOI:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1997.t01-4-00001.x.
• Garric G, Stephenson DB, Terray L. (1997) A global coupled atmosphere sea ice upper ocean simulation (Simulation couplee globale atmosphere, banquise et ocean superficiel), Les Comptes Rendus de l'Academie des Sciences, volume t324, no. 7, pages 529-536.

1996

• Macias J, Stephenson DB. (1996) Seasonal and interannual ENSO variability in a Hybrid Coupled Model of the tropical Pacific, Les Comptes Rendus de l'Academie des Sciences, volume t.324, no. 4, pages 269-276.

1995

• STEPHENSON DB, ROYER JF. (1995) GCM SIMULATION OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION FROM 1979-88, Climate Dynamics, volume 11, no. 2, pages 115-128, DOI:10.1007/BF00211677.
• STEPHENSON DB, ROYER JF. (1995) LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY OF TOTAL OZONE MAPPING SPECTROMETER AND GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL TOTAL OZONE STATIONARY WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EL-NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION FOR THE PERIOD 1979-1988, Journal of Geophysical Research, volume 100, no. D4, pages 7337-7346, DOI:10.1029/94JD03192.
• STEPHENSON DB. (1995) THE IMPACT OF CHANGING THE HORIZONTAL DIFFUSION SCHEME ON THE NORTHERN WINTER CLIMATOLOGY OF A GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 121, no. 521, pages 211-226, DOI:10.1256/smsqj.52109.
• Guilyardi E, Madec G, Terray L, Pontaud M, Imbard M, Stephenson DB, Filiberti M-A, Cariolle D, Delecluse P, Thual O. (1995) Simulation couplee ocean-atmosphere de la variabilite du climat, Les Comptes Rendus de l'Academie des Sciences, volume 320, no. 8, pages 683-690.

1994

• STEPHENSON DB. (1994) THE NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE GRAVITY-WAVE DRAG SCHEME IN A PERPETUAL JANUARY GCM, The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 120, no. 517, pages 699-712, DOI:10.1002/qj.49712051709.

1993

• STEPHENSON DB, HELD IM. (1993) GCM RESPONSE OF NORTHERN WINTER STATIONARY WAVES AND STORM TRACKS TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CARBON-DIOXIDE, J CLIMATE, volume 6, no. 10, pages 1859-1870, DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1859:GRONWS>2.0.CO;2.

1988

• Stephenson D, Thornton A. (1988) Non-perturbative Yukawa couplings, Physics Letters B, volume 212, no. 4, pages 479-482, DOI:10.1016/0370-2693(88)91800-x. [PDF]
• STEPHENSON DB. (1988) FIELD-EQUATIONS ON FRACTAL LATTICES, Nuclear Physics B, volume 295, no. 4, pages 511-524, DOI:10.1016/0550-3213(88)90533-0.
• Bowler KC, Kenway RD, Roweth D, Stephenson DB. (1988) The chiral limit of quenched lattice QCD, Nuclear Physics, volume B301, pages 304-326.
• Bowler KC, Chalmers CB, Kenway RD, Roweth D, Stephenson DB. (1988) Quenched hadron mass calculations using staggered fermions at beta=6.15 and beta=6.30, Nuclear Physics B, volume B296, pages 732-756, DOI:10.1016/0550-3213(88)90396-3.

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