Overview

Adam carries out research on climate variability and climate prediction at the University and collaborates with other climate scientists worldwide.  His main interests are in long range forecasting, mechanisms of climate variability and simulation of climate using physically based climate models.  Adam has made significant advances in seasonal and decadal forecasting with his research group.

Adam joined the university as Honorary Professor in 2014 and then Professor in 2017.  He is also head of long range prediction at the Met Office and has over 30 years experience in climate modelling. His work demonstrates exciting levels of skill in long range predictions of the North Atlantic Oscillation and UK and European winter weather. With colleagues in his research group this work has also uncovered a so-called 'signal to noise paradox' where climate models are better at predicting the real world than they are at predicting themselves.  Adam's work has helped to clarify what caused changes in European climate from the cold blocked winters in the 1960s to the mild wet winters of the 1990s, the remote effects of El Niño, the stratosphere, solar variability and the global effects of year to year changes in tropical rainfall. 

Previously Adam worked on improving computer models of Earth's climate.  He simulated realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in a climate model for the first time using parameterised gravity waves and his work has reduced some of the major errors in climate model simulations of the atmosphere - for example, errors in atmospheric 'blocking'. He also demonstrated with a colleague that the Brewer-Dobson circulation and the associated mass transfer across the tropopause is expected to increase under climate change.

Adam was recently awarded the Institute of Physics Edward Appleton Medal and the Royal Meteorological Society's Buchan Prize.  Previous awards include the Copernicus Medal and an American Geophysical Union ASCENT award for scientific research and leadership.  Adam co-chairs the World Climate Research Programme’s Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction and is a Fellow of the Institute of Physics and the Royal Meteorological Society.

Back to top

---

Publications

_{Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.}

| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |

2024

• van der Laan L, Vlug A, Scaife AA, Maussion F, Förster K. (2024) Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance, volume 2024, pages 1-24, DOI:10.5194/egusphere-2024-387.
• Nie Y, Ren H-L, Zuo J, Wu J, Scaife AA, Dunstone NJ, Hardiman SC. (2024) Eurasian mid-latitude jet stream bridges an Atlantic to Asia summer teleconnection in heat extremes, Environmental Research Letters, volume 19, no. 4, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ad2eee.
• Yoon H, Choi J, Son S-W, Scaife AA. (2024) Skillful prediction of length of day one year ahead in multiple decadal prediction systems, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, volume 7, no. 1, DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00616-2.
• Weisheimer A, Baker LH, Bröcker J, Garfinkel CI, Hardiman SC, Hodson DLR, Palmer TN, Robson JI, Scaife AA, Screen JA. (2024) The Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Climate Forecasts: Revisiting Our Understanding and Identifying Future Priorities, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 105, no. 3, pages e651-e659, DOI:10.1175/bams-d-24-0019.1.
• Williams NC, Scaife AA, Screen JA. (2024) Effect of increased ocean resolution on model errors in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its teleconnections, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, DOI:10.1002/qj.4655.
• Cottrell FM, Screen JA, Scaife AA. (2024) Signal‐to‐noise errors in free‐running atmospheric simulations and their dependence on model resolution, Atmospheric Science Letters, DOI:10.1002/asl.1212. [PDF]
• Collier T, Kettleborough J, Scaife AA, Hermanson L, Davis P. (2024) Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 25, no. 4, DOI:10.1002/asl.1205.
• Ineson S, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Andrews MB, Lockwood JF, Pang B. (2024) Statistics of sudden stratospheric warmings using a large model ensemble, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 25, no. 3, DOI:10.1002/asl.1202.

2023

• Kent C, Scaife AA, Seviour WJM, Dunstone N, Smith D, Smout-Day K. (2023) Identifying Perturbations That Tipped the Stratosphere Into a Sudden Warming During January 2013, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 50, no. 24, article no. ARTN e2023GL106288, DOI:10.1029/2023GL106288. [PDF]
• Priestley MDK, Stephenson DB, Scaife AA, Bannister D, Allen CJT, Wilkie D. (2023) Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, volume 23, no. 12, pages 3845-3861, DOI:10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023. [PDF]
• Betts RA, Belcher SE, Hermanson L, Klein Tank A, Lowe JA, Jones CD, Morice CP, Rayner NA, Scaife AA, Stott PA. (2023) Approaching 1.5 °C: how will we know we’ve reached this crucial warming mark?, Nature, volume 624, no. 7990, pages 33-35, DOI:10.1038/d41586-023-03775-z.
• Liu J, Scaife AA, Dunstone N, Ren HL, Smith D, Hardiman SC, Wu B. (2023) Predictability and Risk of Extreme Winter PM2.5 Concentration in Beijing, Journal of Meteorological Research, volume 37, no. 5, pages 632-642, DOI:10.1007/s13351-023-3023-8.
• Qiu W, Collins M, Scaife AA. (2023) Winter Subtropical Highs, the Hadley Circulation and Baroclinic Instability, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, volume 128, no. 22, DOI:10.1029/2023jd039604. [PDF]
• Pang B, Lu R, Adam AS, Ren R. (2023) Decadal Change in Cold Surges over the South China Sea, Journal of Climate, volume 36, no. 24, pages 8461-8474, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-23-0254.1.
• Hardiman SC, Scaife AA, van Niekerk A, Prudden R, Owen A, Adams SV, Dunstan T, Dunstone NJ, Madge S. (2023) Machine Learning for Nonorographic Gravity Waves in a Climate Model, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, volume 2, no. 4, DOI:10.1175/aies-d-22-0081.1.
• Dunstone N, Smith DM, Hardiman SC, Hermanson L, Ineson S, Kay G, Li C, Lockwood JF, Scaife AA, Thornton H. (2023) Skilful predictions of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation, Communications Earth and Environment, volume 4, no. 1, DOI:10.1038/s43247-023-01063-2.
• Scaife AA, Chao Q, Lu R, Zhou T, Zhang P. (2023) Preface to the 2nd Special Issue on Climate Science for Service Partnership China, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, volume 40, no. 11, pages 1939-1940, DOI:10.1007/s00376-023-3014-9.
• Dunstone N, Smith DM, Hardiman SC, Davies P, Ineson S, Jain S, Kent C, Martin G, Scaife AA. (2023) Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022, Nat Commun, volume 14, no. 1, DOI:10.1038/s41467-023-42377-1. [PDF]
• Lockwood JF, Stringer N, Hodge KR, Bett PE, Knight J, Smith D, Scaife AA, Patterson M, Dunstone N, Thornton HE. (2023) Seasonal prediction of UK mean and extreme winds, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 149, no. 757, pages 3477-3489, DOI:10.1002/qj.4568.
• Ward N, Walker DP, Keane RJ, Marsham JH, Scaife AA, Birch CE, Maybee B. (2023) Predictability of the East Africa long rains through Congo zonal winds, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 24, no. 12, DOI:10.1002/asl.1185.
• Hodson DLR, Sutton RT, Scaife AA. (2023) Signal‐to‐noise and predictable modes of variability in winter seasonal forecasts, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 149, no. 755, pages 2598-2616, DOI:10.1002/qj.4522.
• Jain S, Scaife AA, Shepherd TG, Deser C, Dunstone N, Schmidt GA, Trenberth KE, Turkington T. (2023) Importance of internal variability for climate model assessment, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, volume 6, no. 1, DOI:10.1038/s41612-023-00389-0.
• O'Kane TJ, Scaife AA, Kushnir Y, Brookshaw A, Buontempo C, Carlin D, Connell RK, Doblas-Reyes F, Dunstone N, Förster K. (2023) Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions, Frontiers in Climate, volume 5, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626.
• Lockwood JF, Dunstone N, Hermanson L, Saville GR, Scaife AA, Smith D, Thornton HE. (2023) A Decadal Climate Service for Insurance: Skillful Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Activity and U.S. Hurricane Damage, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, volume 62, no. 9, pages 1151-1163, DOI:10.1175/jamc-d-22-0147.1.
• Degenhardt L, Leckebusch GC, Scaife AA. (2023) Understanding Winter Windstorm Predictability over Europe, volume 2023, pages 1-28, DOI:10.5194/wcd-2023-12.
• Warner JL, Screen JA, Scaife AA, Maidens A, Knight J. (2023) Tropical Forcing of Barents‐Kara Sea Ice During Autumn, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 50, no. 8, DOI:10.1029/2023gl102768. [PDF]
• Zhao S, Ren H-L, Zhou F, Scaife AA, Nie Y. (2023) Phase asymmetry in synoptic eddy feedbacks on the negatively-skewed winter NAO, Atmospheric Research, volume 288, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106725.
• Kay G, Dunstone NJ, Maidens A, Scaife AA, Smith DM, Thornton HE, Dawkins L, Belcher SE. (2023) Variability in North Sea wind energy and the potential for prolonged winter wind drought, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, volume 24, no. 6, DOI:10.1002/asl.1158. [PDF]
• Nie Y, Wu J, Zuo J, Ren H-L, Scaife AA, Dunstone N, Hardiman SC. (2023) Subseasonal Prediction of Early-summer Northeast Asian Cut-off Lows by BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, volume 40, no. 11, pages 2127-2134, DOI:10.1007/s00376-022-2197-9. [PDF]
• Bett PE, Scaife AA, Hardiman SC, Thornton HE, Shen X, Wang L, Pang B. (2023) Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation, Weather and Climate Dynamics, volume 4, no. 1, pages 213-228, DOI:10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023.
• Williams NC, Scaife AA, Screen JA. (2023) Underpredicted ENSO Teleconnections in Seasonal Forecasts, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 50, no. 5, DOI:10.1029/2022gl101689. [PDF]
• Priestley M, Stephenson D, Scaife A. (2023) Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the NAO, and potential future risks, DOI:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8138. [PDF]
• Williams N, Scaife A, Screen J. (2023) Model Resolution Effects on ENSO and its Teleconnections, DOI:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3263. [PDF]
• Pang B, Scaife AA, Lu R, Ren R, Zhao X. (2023) Interdecadal Variations of the Scandinavian Pattern, Journal of Climate, volume 36, no. 10, pages 3275-3288, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0494.1.
• Priestley MDK, Stephenson DB, Scaife AA, Bannister D, Allen CJT, Wilkie D. (2023) Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the NAO, and potential future risks, DOI:10.5194/nhess-2023-22. [PDF]
• Priestley MDK, Stephenson DB, Scaife AA, Bannister D, Allen CJT, Wilkie D. (2023) Supplementary material to "Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the NAO, and potential future risks", DOI:10.5194/nhess-2023-22-supplement. [PDF]
• Seabrook M, Smith DM, Dunstone NJ, Eade R, Hermanson L, Scaife AA, Hardiman SC. (2023) Opposite Impacts of Interannual and Decadal Pacific Variability in the Extratropics, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 50, no. 2, DOI:10.1029/2022gl101226.
• Thornton HE, Smith DM, Scaife AA, Dunstone NJ. (2023) Seasonal Predictability of the East Atlantic Pattern in Late Autumn and Early Winter, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 50, no. 1, DOI:10.1029/2022gl100712.
• Shen X, Wang L, Scaife AA, Hardiman SC, Xu P. (2023) The Stratosphere–Troposphere Oscillation as the Dominant Intraseasonal Coupling Mode between the Stratosphere and Troposphere, Journal of Climate, volume 36, no. 7, pages 2259-2276, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0238.1.
• Degenhardt L, Leckebusch GC, Scaife AA. (2023) Large-scale circulation patterns and their influence on European winter windstorm predictions, Climate Dynamics, volume 60, no. 11-12, pages 3597-3611, DOI:10.1007/s00382-022-06455-2.

2022

• Knight JR, Scaife AA, Maidens A. (2022) An Extratropical Contribution to the Signal‐To‐Noise Paradox in Seasonal Climate Prediction, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 49, no. 23, DOI:10.1029/2022gl100471.
• Kent C, Scaife AA, Dunstone N. (2022) What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO?, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 24, no. 4, DOI:10.1002/asl.1146.
• Dogar MM, Hermanson L, Scaife AA, Visioni D, Zhao M, Hoteit I, Graf H-F, Dogar MA, Almazroui M, Fujiwara M. (2022) A Review of El Niño Southern Oscillation Linkage to Strong Volcanic Eruptions and Post-Volcanic Winter Warming, Earth Systems and Environment, volume 7, no. 1, pages 15-42, DOI:10.1007/s41748-022-00331-z.
• Walsh A, Screen JA, Scaife AA, Smith DM. (2022) Non‐Linear Response of the Extratropics to Tropical Climate Variability, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 49, no. 23, DOI:10.1029/2022gl100416. [PDF]
• Williams NC, Scaife AA, Screen JA. (2022) Underpredicted ENSO Teleconnections in Seasonal Forecasts, DOI:10.1002/essoar.10512740.1. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Hermanson L, van Niekerk A, Andrews M, Baldwin MP, Belcher S, Bett P, Comer RE, Dunstone NJ, Geen R. (2022) Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day, Nature Geoscience, volume 15, no. 10, pages 789-793, DOI:10.1038/s41561-022-01037-7.
• Smith DM, Gillett NP, Simpson IR, Athanasiadis PJ, Baehr J, Bethke I, Bilge TA, Bonnet R, Boucher O, Findell KL. (2022) Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP), Frontiers in Climate, volume 4, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2022.955414.
• Dunstone N, Lockwood J, Solaraju-Murali B, Reinhardt K, Tsartsali EE, Athanasiadis PJ, Bellucci A, Brookshaw A, Caron L-P, Doblas-Reyes FJ. (2022) Towards Useful Decadal Climate Services, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 103, no. 7, pages e1705-e1719, DOI:10.1175/bams-d-21-0190.1.
• Lockwood JF, Stringer N, Thornton HE, Scaife AA, Bett PE, Collier T, Comer R, Dunstone N, Gordon M, Hermanson L. (2022) Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid-winter sudden stratospheric warming, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, volume 23, no. 12, article no. ARTN e1126, DOI:10.1002/asl.1126. [PDF]
• Bett PE, Scaife AA, Hardiman SC, Thornton HE, Shen X, Wang L, Pang B. (2022) Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings on the North Atlantic Oscillation, volume 2022, pages 1-24, DOI:10.5194/wcd-2022-39.
• Williams NC, Scaife AA, Screen JA. (2022) Underpredicted ENSO Teleconnections in Seasonal Forecasts, DOI:10.1002/essoar.10511953.1. [PDF]
• Hardiman SC, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Smith DM, Comer R, Nie Y, Ren HL. (2022) Missing eddy feedback may explain weak signal-to-noise ratios in climate predictions, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, volume 5, no. 1, DOI:10.1038/s41612-022-00280-4.
• Kay G, Dunstone NJ, Smith DM, Betts RA, Cunningham C, Scaife AA. (2022) Assessing the chance of unprecedented dry conditions over North Brazil during El Niño events, Environmental Research Letters, volume 17, no. 6, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac6df9.
• Hermanson L, Smith D, Seabrook M, Bilbao R, Doblas-Reyes F, Tourigny E, Lapin V, Kharin VV, Merryfield WJ, Sospedra-Alfonso R. (2022) WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 103, no. 4, pages E1117-E1129, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0311.1.
• Shen X, Wang L, Osprey S, Hardiman SC, Scaife AA, Ma J. (2022) The Life Cycle and Variability of Antarctic Weak Polar Vortex Events, Journal of Climate, volume 35, no. 6, pages 2075-2092, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0500.1.
• Hemming D, Bell J, Collier R, Dunbar T, Dunstone N, Everatt M, Eyre D, Kaye N, Korycinska A, Pickup J. (2022) Likelihood of Extreme Early Flight of Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae) Across the UK, J Econ Entomol, volume 115, no. 5, pages 1342-1349, DOI:10.1093/jee/toac012. [PDF]
• Jain S, Scaife AA. (2022) How extreme could the near term evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall be?, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 17, no. 3, article no. ARTN 034009, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac4655. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Baldwin MP, Butler AH, Charlton-Perez AJ, Domeisen DIV, Garfinkel CI, Hardiman SC, Haynes P, Karpechko AY, Lim E-P. (2022) Long-range prediction and the stratosphere, ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, volume 22, no. 4, pages 2601-2623, DOI:10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022. [PDF]
• Jones A, Haywood JM, Scaife AA, Boucher O, Henry M, Kravitz B, Lurton T, Nabat P, Niemeier U, Séférian R. (2022) The impact of stratospheric aerosol intervention on the North Atlantic and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G6sulfur experiment, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, volume 22, no. 5, pages 2999-3016, DOI:10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022. [PDF]
• Smith DM, Eade R, Andrews MB, Ayres H, Clark A, Chripko S, Deser C, Dunstone NJ, García-Serrano J, Gastineau G. (2022) Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss, Nat Commun, volume 13, no. 1, DOI:10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y. [PDF]
• Bett P, Martin G, Dunstone N, Scaife A, Thornton H, Li C. (2022) Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020, DOI:10.31223/x53s4s.
• Kent C, Dunstone N, Tucker S, Scaife AA, Brown S, Kendon EJ, Smith D, McLean L, Greenwood S. (2022) Estimating unprecedented extremes in UK summer daily rainfall, Environmental Research Letters, volume 17, no. 1, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac42fb.
• Eade R, Stephenson DB, Scaife AA, Smith DM. (2022) Quantifying the rarity of extreme multi-decadal trends: how unusual was the late twentieth century trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation?, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 58, no. 5-6, pages 1555-1568, DOI:10.1007/s00382-021-05978-4. [PDF]
• Stockdale TN, Kim YH, Anstey JA, Palmeiro FM, Butchart N, Scaife AA, Andrews M, Bushell AC, Dobrynin M, Garcia-Serrano J. (2022) Prediction of the quasi-biennial oscillation with a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 148, no. 744, pages 1519-1540, DOI:10.1002/qj.3919.
• Holt LA, Lott F, Garcia RR, Kiladis GN, Cheng YM, Anstey JA, Braesicke P, Bushell AC, Butchart N, Cagnazzo C. (2022) An evaluation of tropical waves and wave forcing of the QBO in the QBOi models, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 148, no. 744, pages 1541-1567, DOI:10.1002/qj.3827.

2021

• Scaife AA, Baldwin MP, Butler AH, Charlton-Perez AJ, Domeisen DIV, Garfinkel CI, Hardiman SC, Haynes P, Karpechko AY, Lim E-P. (2021) Long Range Prediction and the Stratosphere, volume 2021, pages 1-30, DOI:10.5194/acp-2021-719.
• Ineson S, Dunstone NJ, Ren H-L, Renshaw R, Roberts MJ, Scaife AA, Yamazaki K. (2021) ENSO Amplitude Asymmetry in Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Models, Frontiers in Climate, volume 3, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2021.789869.
• Pang B, Scaife AA, Lu R, Ren R. (2021) Asymmetric impact of the Scandinavian pattern on stratospheric circulation anomalies, Journal of Climate, pages 1-43, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0331.1.
• Jones A, Haywood JM, Scaife AA, Boucher O, Henry M, Kravitz B, Lurton T, Nabat P, Niemeier U, Séférian R. (2021) The impact of stratospheric aerosol intervention on the North Atlantic and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G6sulfur experiment, DOI:10.5194/acp-2021-898. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Good E, Sun Y, Yan Z, Dunstone N, Ren HL, Li C, Lu R, Wu P, Ke Z. (2021) The U.K.-China climate science to service partnership, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 102, no. 8, pages E1563-E1568, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0055.1.
• Bett PE, Martin GM, Dunstone N, Scaife AA, Thornton HE, Li C. (2021) Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, volume 38, no. 12, pages 2212-2220, DOI:10.1007/s00376-021-1087-x. [PDF]
• Donegan S, Murphy C, Harrigan S, Broderick C, Quinn DF, Golian S, Knight J, Matthews T, Prudhomme C, Scaife AA. (2021) Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times, HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, volume 25, no. 7, pages 4159-4183, DOI:10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021. [PDF]
• Lim EP, Hendon HH, Butler AH, Thompson DWJ, Lawrence ZD, Scaife AA, Shepherd TG, Polichtchouk I, Nakamura H, Kobayashi C. (2021) The 2019 southern hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex weakening and its impacts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 102, no. 6, pages E1150-E1171, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0112.1.
• Li C, Lu R, Dunstone N, Scaife AA, Bett PE, Zheng F. (2021) The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, volume 38, no. 12, pages 2055-2066, DOI:10.1007/s00376-021-1092-0. [PDF]
• Scott T, McCarroll RJ, Masselink G, Castelle B, Dodet G, Saulter A, Scaife AA, Dunstone N. (2021) Role of Atmospheric Indices in Describing Inshore Directional Wave Climate in the United Kingdom and Ireland, Earth's Future, volume 9, no. 5, DOI:10.1029/2020EF001625.
• Meehl GA, Richter JH, Teng H, Capotondi A, Cobb K, Doblas-Reyes F, Donat MG, England MH, Fyfe JC, Han W. (2021) Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales, NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT, volume 2, no. 5, pages 340-357, DOI:10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x. [PDF]
• Davies PA, McCarthy M, Christidis N, Dunstone N, Fereday D, Kendon M, Knight JR, Scaife AA, Sexton D. (2021) The wet and stormy UK winter of 2019/2020, Weather, volume 76, no. 12, pages 396-402, DOI:10.1002/wea.3955.
• Maidens A, Knight JR, Scaife AA. (2021) Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 16, no. 2, article no. ARTN 024035, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa. [PDF]
• Knight J, Scaife A, Bett PE, Collier T, Dunstone N, Gordon M, Hardiman S, Hermanson L, Ineson S, Kay G. (2021) Predictability of European Winters 2017/2018 and 2018/2019: Contrasting influences from the Tropics and stratosphere, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, volume 22, no. 1, article no. ARTN e1009, DOI:10.1002/asl.1009. [PDF]

2020

• Bett P, Martin N, Scaife A, Dunstone N, Martin G, Golding N, Camp J, Zhang P, Hewitt C, Hermanson L. (2020) Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service, DOI:10.31223/osf.io/e8jgy.
• Donegan S, Murphy C, Harrigan S, Broderick C, Golian S, Knight J, Matthews T, Prudhomme C, Quinn DF, Scaife AA. (2020) Conditioning Ensemble Streamflow Prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times, volume 2020, pages 1-33, DOI:10.5194/hess-2020-604.
• Scott T, Masselink G, McCarroll RJ, Castelle B, dodet G, Saulter A, Scaife AA, Dunstone NJ. (2020) Atmospheric controls and long range predictability of directional waves in the United Kingdom & Ireland, DOI:10.1002/essoar.10503076.1.
• Pihl E, Alfredsson E, Bengtsson M, Bowen KJ, Cástan Broto V, Chou KT, Cleugh H, Ebi K, Edwards CM, Fisher E. (2020) Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan, Global Sustainability, DOI:10.1017/sus.2021.2.
• Fereday DR, Chadwick R, Knight JR, Scaife AA. (2020) Tropical Rainfall Linked to Stronger Future ENSO-NAO Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 47, no. 22, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088664.
• Walker DP, Marsham JH, Birch CE, Scaife AA, Finney DL. (2020) Common Mechanism for Interannual and Decadal Variability in the East African Long Rains, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 47, no. 22, DOI:10.1029/2020GL089182.
• Camp J, Bett PE, Golding N, Hewitt CD, Mitchell TD, Scaife AA. (2020) Verification of the 2019 GloSea5 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecast for East China, JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH, volume 34, no. 5, pages 917-925, DOI:10.1007/s13351-020-0043-5. [PDF]
• Bett PE, Martin N, Scaife AA, Dunstone N, Martin GM, Golding N, Camp J, Zhang P, Hewitt CD, Hermanson L. (2020) Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service, JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH, volume 34, no. 5, pages 904-916, DOI:10.1007/s13351-020-0049-z. [PDF]
• Wu J, Zhang P, Li L, Ren HL, Liu X, Scaife AA, Zhang S. (2020) Representation and Predictability of the East Asia-Pacific Teleconnection in the Beijing Climate Center and UK Met Office Subseasonal Prediction Systems, Journal of Meteorological Research, volume 34, no. 5, pages 941-964, DOI:10.1007/s13351-020-0040-8.
• Wang L, Hardiman SC, Bett PE, Comer RE, Kent C, Scaife AA. (2020) What chance of a sudden stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere?, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 15, no. 10, article no. ARTN 104038, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aba8c1. [PDF]
• Dunstone N, Smith D, Yeager S, Danabasoglu G, Monerie P-A, Hermanson L, Eade R, Ineson S, Robson J, Scaife A. (2020) Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 15, no. 9, article no. ARTN 094083, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ab9f7d. [PDF]
• Jain S, Scaife AA, Dunstone N, Smith D, Mishra SK. (2020) Current chance of unprecedented monsoon rainfall over India using dynamical ensemble simulations, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 15, no. 9, article no. ARTN 094095, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ab7b98. [PDF]
• Kay G, Dunstone N, Smith D, Dunbar T, Eade R, Scaife A. (2020) Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 15, no. 9, article no. ARTN 094099, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abab32. [PDF]
• Hernández A, Martin-Puertas C, Moffa-Sánchez P, Moreno-Chamarro E, Ortega P, Blockley S, Cobb KM, Comas-Bru L, Giralt S, Goosse H. (2020) Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene, Earth-Science Reviews, volume 209, DOI:10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286.
• Nie Y, Ren H-L, Scaife AA. (2020) Enhanced mid-to-late winter predictability of the storm track variability in the North Pacific as a contrast with the North Atlantic, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 15, no. 9, article no. ARTN 094037, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ab9c4d. [PDF]
• Martin GM, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Bett PE. (2020) Erratum to: Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin (Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, (2020), 37, 1, (29-41), 10.1007/s00376-019-9051-8), Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, volume 37, no. 9, DOI:10.1007/s00376-020-0012-z.
• Mitchell J, Scaife AA. (2020) Climate modelling: how is Earth's climate modelled and how does modelling help our understanding?, WEATHER, volume 75, no. 8, pages 259-259, DOI:10.1002/wea.3799. [PDF]
• Hardiman SC, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Smith DM, Knight JR, Davies P, Claus M, Greatbatch RJ. (2020) Predictability of European winter 2019/20: Indian Ocean dipole impacts on the NAO, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 21, no. 12, DOI:10.1002/asl.1005.
• Smith DM, Scaife AA, Eade R, Athanasiadis P, Bellucci A, Bethke I, Bilbao R, Borchert LF, Caron L-P, Counillon F. (2020) North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply, Nature, volume 583, no. 7818, pages 796-800, DOI:10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0. [PDF]
• Scaife A. (2020) Does variation in the Sun's output affect climate?, Weather, volume 75, no. 6, DOI:10.1002/wea.3721.
• Li RKK, Woollings T, O'Reilly C, Scaife AA. (2020) Effect of the North Pacific Tropospheric Waveguide on the Fidelity of Model El Nino Teleconnections, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 33, no. 12, pages 5223-5237, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0156.1. [PDF]
• Warner J. (2020) Causality of the Link between Autumn Arctic Sea Ice and the Winter Extratropical Atmosphere.
• Hardiman SC, Scaife AA, Dunstone NJ, Wang L. (2020) Subseasonal Vacillations in the Winter Stratosphere, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 47, no. 9, DOI:10.1029/2020GL087766.
• Smith DM, Eade R, Scaife AA, Caron LP, Danabasoglu G, DelSole TM, Delworth T, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Dunstone NJ, Hermanson L. (2020) Author Correction: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions (npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, (2019), 2, 1, (13), 10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y), npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, volume 3, no. 1, DOI:10.1038/s41612-020-0118-0.
• Bett PE, Williams KE, Burton C, Scaife AA, Wiltshire AJ, Gilham R. (2020) Skillful seasonal prediction of key carbon cycle components: NPP and fire risk, Environmental Research Communications, volume 2, no. 5, pages 055002-055002, DOI:10.1088/2515-7620/ab8b29. [PDF]
• Li RKK, Woollings T, O'Reilly C, Scaife AA. (2020) Tropical atmospheric drivers of wintertime European precipitation events, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 146, no. 727, pages 780-794, DOI:10.1002/qj.3708.
• Lu Y, Wu T, Jie W, Scaife AA, Andrews MB, Richter JH. (2020) Variability of the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Its Wave Forcing Simulated in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, volume 77, no. 1, pages 149-165, DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-19-0123.1. [PDF]
• Martin GM, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Bett PE. (2020) Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, volume 37, no. 1, pages 29-41, DOI:10.1007/s00376-019-9051-8.
• Warner JL, Screen JA, Scaife AA. (2020) Links Between Barents‐Kara Sea Ice and the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Explained by Internal Variability and Tropical Forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 47, no. 1, DOI:10.1029/2019gl085679. [PDF]

2019

• Baldwin MP, Birner T, Brasseur G, Burrows J, Butchart N, Garcia R, Geller M, Gray L, Hamilton K, Harnik N. (2019) 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Stratosphere and Mesosphere 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Stratosphere and Mesosphere, volume 59, pages 27.1-27.62, DOI:10.1175/amsmonographs-d-19-0003.1.
• Scaife A, Guilyardi E, Cain M, Gilbert A. (2019) What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation?, Weather, volume 74, no. 7, pages 250-251, DOI:10.1002/wea.3404.
• Bett P, Williams K, Burton C, Scaife A, Wiltshire A, Gilham R. (2019) Skillful seasonal prediction of key carbon cycle components: NPP and fire risk, DOI:10.31223/osf.io/29ve5. [PDF]
• Smith DM, Eade R, Scaife AA, Caron L-P, Danabasoglu G, DelSole TM, Delworth T, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Dunstone NJ, Hermanson L. (2019) Robust skill of decadal climate predictions, NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, volume 2, article no. ARTN 13, DOI:10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y. [PDF]
• McCarthy M, Christidis N, Dunstone N, Fereday D, Kay G, Klein-Tank A, Lowe J, Petch J, Scaife A, Stott P. (2019) Drivers of the UK summer heatwave of 2018, Weather, volume 74, no. 11, pages 390-396, DOI:10.1002/wea.3628.
• Dunstone N, Smith D, Hardiman S, Eade R, Gordon M, Hermanson L, Kay G, Scaife A. (2019) Skilful Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts of the Dry Northern European Summer 2018, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 46, no. 21, pages 12368-12376, DOI:10.1029/2019GL084659.
• Hardiman SC, Andrews MB, Andrews T, Bushell AC, Dunstone NJ, Dyson H, Jones GS, Knight JR, Neininger E, O'Connor FM. (2019) The Impact of Prescribed Ozone in Climate Projections Run With HadGEM3-GC3.1, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, volume 11, no. 11, pages 3443-3453, DOI:10.1029/2019MS001714.
• Kent C, Pope E, Dunstone N, Scaife AA, Tian Z, Clark R, Zhang L, Davie J, Lewis K. (2019) Maize Drought Hazard in the Northeast Farming Region of China: Unprecedented Events in the Current Climate, JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, volume 58, no. 10, pages 2247-2258, DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0096.1. [PDF]
• Hendon HH, Thompson DWJ, Lim EP, Butler AH, Newman PA, Coy L, Scaife A, Polichtchouk I, Garreaud RS, Shepherd TG. (2019) Rare forecasted climate event under way in the Southern Hemisphere, Nature, volume 573, no. 7775, DOI:10.1038/d41586-019-02858-0.
• Scaife AA, Camp J, Comer R, Davis P, Dunstone N, Gordon M, MacLachlan C, Martin N, Nie Y, Ren HL. (2019) Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 20, no. 8, DOI:10.1002/asl.922.
• Walker DP, Birch CE, Marsham JH, Scaife AA, Graham RJ, Segele ZT. (2019) Skill of dynamical and GHACOF consensus seasonal forecasts of East African rainfall, Climate Dynamics, volume 53, no. 7-8, pages 4911-4935, DOI:10.1007/s00382-019-04835-9.
• Grist JP, Sinha B, Hewitt HT, Duchez A, MacLachlan C, Hyder P, Josey SA, Hirschi JJM, Blaker AT, New AL. (2019) Re-emergence of North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in a seasonal forecast system, Climate Dynamics, volume 53, no. 7-8, pages 4799-4820, DOI:10.1007/s00382-019-04826-w.
• Scaife AA, Comer RE, Dunstone NJ, Knight JR, Smith DM, MacLachlan C, Martin N, Peterson KA, Rowlands D, Carroll EB. (2019) Corrigendum to: Tropical rainfall, Rossby waves and regional winter climate predictions: Winter Teleconnections (Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, (2017), 143, 702, (1-11), 10.1002/qj.2910), Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 145, no. 720, DOI:10.1002/qj.3527.
• Lockwood JF, Thornton HE, Dunstone N, Scaife AA, Bett PE, Li C, Ren HL. (2019) Skilful seasonal prediction of winter wind speeds in China, Climate Dynamics, volume 53, no. 7-8, pages 3937-3955, DOI:10.1007/s00382-019-04763-8.
• Nie Y, Scaife AA, Hong LR, Comer RE, Andrews MB, Davis P, Martin N. (2019) Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 14, no. 3, article no. ARTN 034006, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ab0385. [PDF]
• Hardiman SC, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Smith DM, Ineson S, Lim J, Fereday D. (2019) The Impact of Strong El Niño and La Niña Events on the North Atlantic, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 46, no. 5, pages 2874-2883, DOI:10.1029/2018GL081776.
• Thornton HE, Scaife AA, Hoskins BJ, Brayshaw DJ, Smith DM, Dunstone N, Stringer N, Bett PE. (2019) Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 14, no. 2, article no. ARTN 024009, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf338. [PDF]
• Kushnir Y, Scaife AA, Arritt R, Balsamo G, Boer G, Doblas-Reyes F, Hawkins E, Kimoto M, Kolli RK, Kumar A. (2019) Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate, Nature Climate Change, volume 9, no. 2, pages 94-101, DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7.
• Lim J, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Smith DM. (2019) Skilful seasonal prediction of Korean winter temperature, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 20, no. 2, DOI:10.1002/asl.881.
• Andrews MB, Knight JR, Scaife AA, Lu Y, Wu T, Gray LJ, Schenzinger V. (2019) Observed and Simulated Teleconnections Between the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmospheric Circulation, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, volume 124, no. 3, pages 1219-1232, DOI:10.1029/2018JD029368.
• Martin GM, Chevuturi A, Comer RE, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Zhang D. (2019) Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, volume 36, no. 3, pages 253-260, DOI:10.1007/s00376-018-8100-z.
• Scaife AA, Ferranti L, Alves O, Athanasiadis P, Baehr J, Dequé M, Dippe T, Dunstone N, Fereday D, Gudgel RG. (2019) Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems, International Journal of Climatology, volume 39, no. 2, pages 974-988, DOI:10.1002/joc.5855.
• Jain S, Scaife AA, Mitra AK. (2019) Skill of Indian summer monsoon rainfall prediction in multiple seasonal prediction systems, Climate Dynamics, volume 52, no. 9-10, pages 5291-5301, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4449-z.
• Ren HL, Scaife AA, Dunstone N, Tian B, Liu Y, Ineson S, Lee JY, Smith D, Liu C, Thompson V. (2019) Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions, Climate Dynamics, volume 52, no. 7-8, pages 3869-3890, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4366-1.
• Thompson V, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Smith DM, Hardiman SC, Ren HL, Lu B, Belcher SE. (2019) Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China, Climate Dynamics, volume 52, no. 5-6, pages 2585-2596, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4281-5.
• Seo E, Lee MI, Jeong JH, Koster RD, Schubert SD, Kim HM, Kim D, Kang HS, Kim HK, MacLachlan C. (2019) Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events, Climate Dynamics, volume 52, no. 3-4, pages 1695-1709, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4221-4.

2018

• Scaife AA, Smith D. (2018) A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, volume 1, no. 1, article no. 28, DOI:10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4. [PDF]
• Liu Y, Ren HL, Scaife AA, Li C. (2018) Evaluation and statistical downscaling of East Asian summer monsoon forecasting in BCC and MOHC seasonal prediction systems, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 144, no. 717, pages 2798-2811, DOI:10.1002/qj.3405.
• Dunstone N, Scaife AA, MacLachlan C, Knight J, Ineson S, Smith D, Thornton H, Gordon M, McLean P, Palin E. (2018) Predictability of European winter 2016/2017, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 19, no. 12, DOI:10.1002/asl.868.
• Smith DM, Scaife AA, Hawkins E, Bilbao R, Boer GJ, Caian M, Caron LP, Danabasoglu G, Delworth T, Doblas-Reyes FJ. (2018) Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 45, no. 21, pages 11-903, DOI:10.1029/2018GL079362.
• Ayarzagüena B, Ineson S, Dunstone NJ, Baldwin MP, Scaife AA. (2018) Intraseasonal effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on North Atlantic climate, Journal of Climate, volume 31, no. 21, pages 8861-8873, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0097.1.
• Singh D, Ting M, Scaife AA, Martin N. (2018) California Winter Precipitation Predictability: Insights From the Anomalous 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 Seasons, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 45, no. 18, pages 9972-9980, DOI:10.1029/2018GL078844.
• Baker LH, Shaffrey LC, Sutton RT, Weisheimer A, Scaife AA. (2018) An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 45, no. 15, pages 7808-7817, DOI:10.1029/2018GL078838.
• Robson J, Sutton RT, Archibald A, Cooper F, Christensen M, Gray LJ, Holliday NP, Macintosh C, McMillan M, Moat B. (2018) Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005–2016, International Journal of Climatology, volume 38, no. 14, pages 5050-5076, DOI:10.1002/joc.5815.
• Lin X, Li C, Lu R, Scaife AA. (2018) Predictable and Unpredictable Components of the Summer East Asia–Pacific Teleconnection Pattern, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, volume 35, no. 11, pages 1372-1380, DOI:10.1007/s00376-018-7305-5.
• Camp J, Scaife AA, Heming J. (2018) Predictability of the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 19, no. 5, DOI:10.1002/asl.813.
• Ineson S, Balmaseda MA, Davey MK, Decremer D, Dunstone NJ, Gordon M, Ren H-L, Scaife AA, Weisheimer A. (2018) Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015, Sci Rep, volume 8, no. 1, DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-29130-1. [PDF]
• Bett PE, Scaife AA, Li C, Hewitt C, Golding N, Zhang P, Dunstone N, Smith DM, Thornton HE, Lu R. (2018) Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, volume 35, no. 8, pages 918-926, DOI:10.1007/s00376-018-7210-y.
• Li C, Lu R, Bett PE, Scaife AA, Martin N. (2018) Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Summer Surface Air Temperature in Western China by Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, volume 35, no. 8, pages 955-964, DOI:10.1007/s00376-018-7291-7.
• Butchart N, Anstey JA, Hamilton K, Osprey S, McLandress C, Bushell AC, Kawatani Y, Kim YH, Lott F, Scinocca J. (2018) Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), Geoscientific Model Development, volume 11, no. 3, pages 1009-1032, DOI:10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018.
• Hardiman SC, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Bett PE, Li C, Lu B, Ren H-L, Smith DM, Stephan CC. (2018) The asymmetric response of Yangtze river basin summer rainfall to El Nino/La Nina, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 13, no. 2, article no. ARTN 024015, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa172. [PDF]
• Merryfield WJ, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Ferranti L, Jeong JH, Orsolini YJ, Saurral RI, Scaife AA, Tolstykh MA, Rixen M. (2018) Advancing forecasting, Eos, volume 99, no. 2, pages 16-21.
• Williams KD, Copsey D, Blockley EW, Bodas-Salcedo A, Calvert D, Comer R, Davis P, Graham T, Hewitt HT, Hill R. (2018) The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, volume 10, no. 2, pages 357-380, DOI:10.1002/2017MS001115.
• Förster K, Hanzer F, Stoll E, Scaife AA, MacLachlan C, Schöber J, Huttenlau M, Achleitner S, Strasser U. (2018) Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps), Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, volume 22, no. 2, pages 1157-1173, DOI:10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018.
• Fereday D, Chadwick R, Knight J, Scaife AA. (2018) Atmospheric dynamics is the largest source of uncertainty in future winter European rainfall, Journal of Climate, volume 31, no. 3, pages 963-977, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0048.1.
• Hermanson L, Ren HL, Vellinga M, Dunstone ND, Hyder P, Ineson S, Scaife AA, Smith DM, Thompson V, Tian B. (2018) Different types of drifts in two seasonal forecast systems and their dependence on ENSO, Climate Dynamics, volume 51, no. 4, pages 1411-1426, DOI:10.1007/s00382-017-3962-9.
• Baker LH, Shaffrey LC, Scaife AA. (2018) Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation, International Journal of Climatology, volume 38, pages e437-e453, DOI:10.1002/joc.5382.
• Lu B, Ren HL, Scaife AA, Wu J, Dunstone N, Smith D, Wan J, Eade R, MacLachlan C, Gordon M. (2018) An extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2016: dynamics and predictability, Climate Dynamics, volume 51, no. 1-2, pages 89-100, DOI:10.1007/s00382-017-3908-2.

2017

• Bell VA, Davies HN, Kay AL, Brookshaw A, Scaife AA. (2017) A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain, pages 1-19, DOI:10.5194/hess-2017-154.
• Förster K, Hanzer F, Stoll E, Scaife AA, MacLachlan C, Schöber J, Huttenlau M, Achleitner S, Strasser U. (2017) Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps), pages 1-17, DOI:10.5194/hess-2017-370.
• Butchart N, Anstey JA, Hamilton K, Osprey S, McLandress C, Bushell AC, Kawatani Y, Kim Y-H, Lott F, Scinocca J. (2017) Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), pages 1-35, DOI:10.5194/gmd-2017-187.
• Merryfield W, Doblas-Reyes F, Ferranti L, Jeong J-H, Orsolini Y, Saurral R, Scaife A, Tolstykh M, Rixen M. (2017) Advancing Climate Forecasting, Eos, DOI:10.1029/2017eo086891.
• Bett PE, Thornton HE, Lockwood JF, Scaife AA, Golding N, Hewitt C, Zhu R, Zhang P, Li C. (2017) Skill and reliability of seasonal forecasts for the Chinese energy sector, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1703.06662.
• Bett PE, Scaife AA, Li C, Hewitt C, Golding N, Zhang P, Dunstone N, Smith DM, Thornton HE, Lu R. (2017) Seasonal forecasts of the summer 2016 Yangtze River basin rainfall, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1708.07448.
• Smith DM, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Fiedler EK, Copsey D, Hardiman SC. (2017) Corrigendum: [Journal of Climate, 31, 12, (4963-4964)] doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0564.1, Journal of Climate, volume 31, no. 12, pages 4963-4964, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0100.1.
• Tompkins AM, Ortiz De Zarate MI, Saurral RI, Vera C, Saulo C, Merryfield WJ, Sigmond M, Lee W-S, Baehr J, Braun A. (2017) The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project: Providing Open Access to Seasonal Forecast Ensembles from Centers around the Globe, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 98, no. 11, pages 2293-2302, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0209.1. [PDF]
• Williams PD, Alexander MJ, Barnes EA, Butler AH, Davies HC, Garfinkel CI, Kushnir Y, Lane TP, Lundquist JK, Martius O. (2017) A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 44, no. 21, pages 11-211, DOI:10.1002/2017GL075483.
• Bett PE, Thornton HE, Lockwood JF, Scaife AA, Golding N, Hewitt C, Zhu R, Zhang P, Li C. (2017) Skill and reliability of seasonal forecasts for the Chinese energy sector, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, volume 56, no. 11, pages 3099-3114, DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0070.1.
• Clark RT, Bett PE, Thornton HE, Scaife AA. (2017) Skilful seasonal predictions for the European energy industry (vol 2, 024002, 2017), ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 12, no. 11, article no. ARTN 119602, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aa94a7. [PDF]
• Kent C, Pope E, Thompson V, Lewis K, Scaife AA, Dunstone N. (2017) Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 12, no. 5, article no. ARTN 054012, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb9. [PDF]
• Lu B, Scaife AA, Dunstone N, Smith D, Ren H-L, Liu Y, Eade R. (2017) Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 12, no. 7, article no. ARTN 074021, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aa739a. [PDF]
• Matthes K, Funke B, Andersson ME, Barnard L, Beer J, Charbonneau P, Clilverd MA, de Wit TD, Haberreiter M, Hendry A. (2017) Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, volume 10, no. 6, pages 2247-2302, DOI:10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017. [PDF]
• Jia L, Yang X, Vecchi G, Gudgel R, Delworth T, Fueglistaler S, Lin P, Scaife AA, Underwood S, Lin S-J. (2017) Seasonal Prediction Skill of Northern Extratropical Surface Temperature Driven by the Stratosphere, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 30, no. 12, pages 4463-4475, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0475.1. [PDF]
• Hall RJ, Scaife AA, Hanna E, Jones JM, Erdelyi R. (2017) Simple Statistical Probabilistic Forecasts of the Winter NAO, WEATHER AND FORECASTING, volume 32, no. 4, pages 1585-1601, DOI:10.1175/WAF-D-16-0124.1. [PDF]
• Hall RJ, Jones JM, Hanna E, Scaife AA, Erdelyi R. (2017) Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 48, no. 11, pages 3869-3887, DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0. [PDF]
• Knight JR, Maidens A, Watson PAG, Andrews M, Belcher S, Brunet G, Fereday D, Folland CK, Scaife AA, Slingo J. (2017) Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 12, no. 7, article no. ARTN 074001, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aa693c. [PDF]
• Hardiman SC, Lin P, Scaife AA, Dunstone NJ, Ren H-L. (2017) The influence of dynamical variability on the observed Brewer-Dobson circulation trend, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 44, no. 6, pages 2885-2892, DOI:10.1002/2017GL072706. [PDF]
• Athanasiadis PJ, Bellucci A, Scaife AA, Hermanson L, Materia S, Sanna A, Borrelli A, MacLachlan C, Gualdi S. (2017) A Multisystem View of Wintertime NAO Seasonal Predictions, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 30, no. 4, pages 1461-1475, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0153.1. [PDF]
• Lu H, Scaife AA, Marshall GJ, Turner J, Gray LJ. (2017) Downward Wave Reflection as a Mechanism for the Stratosphere-Troposphere Response to the 11-Yr Solar Cycle, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 30, no. 7, pages 2395-2414, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0400.1. [PDF]
• Thornton HE, Scaife AA, Hoskins BJ, Brayshaw DJ. (2017) The relationship between wind power, electricity demand and winter weather patterns in Great Britain, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 12, no. 6, article no. ARTN 064017, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aa69c6. [PDF]
• Clark RT, Bett PE, Thornton HE, Scaife AA. (2017) Skilful seasonal predictions for the European energy industry, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 12, no. 2, article no. ARTN 024002, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aa57ab. [PDF]
• Smith DM, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Fiedler EK, Copsey D, Hardiman SC. (2017) Atmospheric Response to Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice: The Importance of Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling and the Background State, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 30, no. 12, pages 4547-4565, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0564.1. [PDF]
• Thompson V, Dunstone NJ, Scaife AA, Smith DM, Slingo JM, Brown S, Belcher SE. (2017) High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate, Nature Communications, volume 8, no. 1, DOI:10.1038/s41467-017-00275-3.
• Bell VA, Davies HN, Kay AL, Brookshaw A, Scaife AA. (2017) A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: Development and evaluation over Britain, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, volume 21, no. 9, pages 4681-4691, DOI:10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017.
• Scaife AA, Comer R, Dunstone N, Fereday D, Folland C, Good E, Gordon M, Hermanson L, Ineson S, Karpechko A. (2017) Predictability of European winter 2015/2016, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 18, no. 2, pages 38-44, DOI:10.1002/asl.721.
• Scaife AA, Comer RE, Dunstone NJ, Knight JR, Smith DM, MacLachlan C, Martin N, Peterson KA, Rowlands D, Carroll EB. (2017) Tropical rainfall, Rossby waves and regional winter climate predictions, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 143, no. 702, pages 1-11, DOI:10.1002/qj.2910.

2016

• Matthes K, Funke B, Anderson ME, Barnard L, Beer J, Charbonneau P, Clilverd MA, de Wit TD, Haberreiter M, Hendry A. (2016) Solar Forcing for CMIP6 (v3.1), volume 0, pages 1-82, DOI:10.5194/gmd-2016-91.
• Scaife AA. (2016) The North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations: climate variability, extremes, and stratosphere–troposphere interaction, Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events, Cambridge University Press (CUP), 122-130, DOI:10.1017/cbo9781107775541.010.
• Butler AH, Arribas A, Athanassiadou M, Baehr J, Calvo N, Charlton-Perez A, Deque M, Domeisen DIV, Froehlich K, Hendon H. (2016) The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 142, no. 696, pages 1413-1427, DOI:10.1002/qj.2743. [PDF]
• Li C, Scaife AA, Lu R, Arribas A, Brookshaw A, Comer RE, Li J, MacLachlan C, Wu P. (2016) Skillful seasonal prediction of Yangtze river valley summer rainfall, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 11, no. 9, article no. ARTN 094002, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094002. [PDF]
• Ren H-L, Jin F-F, Tian B, Scaife AA. (2016) Distinct persistence barriers in two types of ENSO, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 43, no. 20, pages 10973-10979, DOI:10.1002/2016GL071015. [PDF]
• Smith DM, Scaife AA, Eade R, Knight JR. (2016) Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 142, no. 695, pages 611-617, DOI:10.1002/qj.2479. [PDF]
• Thornton HE, Hoskins BJ, Scaife AA. (2016) The role of temperature in the variability and extremes of electricity and gas demand in Great Britain, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 11, no. 11, article no. ARTN 114015, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114015. [PDF]
• Palin EJ, Scaife AA, Wallace E, Pope ECD, Arribas A, Brookshaw A. (2016) Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Disruption to the U.K. Transport System, JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, volume 55, no. 2, pages 325-344, DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0102.1. [PDF]
• Osprey SM, Butchart N, Knight JR, Scaife AA, Hamilton K, Anstey JA, Schenzinger V, Zhang C. (2016) An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation, Science, volume 353, no. 6306, pages 1424-1427, DOI:10.1126/science.aah4156.
• Dunstone N, Smith D, Scaife A, Hermanson L, Eade R, Robinson N, Andrews M, Knight J. (2016) Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead, NATURE GEOSCIENCE, volume 9, no. 11, pages 809-+, DOI:10.1038/ngeo2824. [PDF]
• Smith DM, Booth BBB, Dunstone NJ, Eade R, Hermanson L, Jones GS, Scaife AA, Sheen KL, Thompson V. (2016) Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown, Nature Climate Change, volume 6, no. 10, pages 936-940, DOI:10.1038/nclimate3058. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Karpechko AY, Baldwin MP, Brookshaw A, Butler AH, Eade R, Gordon M, Maclachlan C, Martin N, Dunstone N. (2016) Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere, Atmospheric Science Letters, volume 17, no. 1, pages 51-56, DOI:10.1002/asl.598.

2015

• Siegert S, Stephenson DB, Sansom PG, Scaife AA, Eade R, Arribas A. (2015) A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1504.01933.
• Lewis H, Mittermaier M, Mylne K, Norman K, Scaife A, Neal R, Pierce C, Harrison D, Jewell S, Kendon M. (2015) From months to minutes - exploring the value of high-resolution rainfall observation and prediction during the UK winter storms of 2013/2014, Meteorological Applications, volume 22, no. 1, pages 90-104, DOI:10.1002/met.1493.
• Hall R, Erdelyi R, Hanna E, Jones JM, Scaife AA. (2015) Drivers of North Atlantic Polar Front jet stream variability, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, volume 35, no. 8, pages 1697-1720, DOI:10.1002/joc.4121. [PDF]
• Svensson C, Brookshaw A, Scaife AA, Bell VA, Mackay JD, Jackson CR, Hannaford J, Davies HN, Arribas A, Stanley S. (2015) Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 10, no. 6, article no. ARTN 064006, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064006. [PDF]
• Kolstad EW, Sobolowski SP, Scaife AA. (2015) Intraseasonal Persistence of European Surface Temperatures, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 28, no. 13, pages 5365-5374, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0053.1. [PDF]
• Karpechko AY, Peterson KA, Scaife AA, Vainio J, Gregow H. (2015) Skilful seasonal predictions of Baltic Sea ice cover, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 10, no. 4, article no. ARTN 044007, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044007. [PDF]
• Camp J, Roberts M, MacLachlan C, Wallace E, Hermanson L, Brookshaw A, Arribas A, Scaife AA. (2015) Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 141, no. 691, pages 2206-2219, DOI:10.1002/qj.2516. [PDF]
• Mackay JD, Jackson CR, Brookshaw A, Scaife AA, Cook J, Ward RS. (2015) Seasonal forecasting of groundwater levels in principal aquifers of the United Kingdom, JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, volume 530, pages 815-828, DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.10.018. [PDF]
• Maclachlan C, Arribas A, Peterson KA, Maidens A, Fereday D, Scaife AA, Gordon M, Vellinga M, Williams A, Comer RE. (2015) Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): A high-resolution seasonal forecast system, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 141, no. 689, pages 1072-1084, DOI:10.1002/qj.2396.
• Ineson S, Maycock AC, Gray LJ, Scaife AA, Dunstone NJ, Harder JW, Knight JR, Lockwood M, Manners JC, Wood RA. (2015) Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum, Nat Commun, volume 6, DOI:10.1038/ncomms8535. [PDF]
• Kidston J, Scaife AA, Hardiman SC, Mitchell DM, Butchart N, Baldwin MP, Gray LJ. (2015) Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather, NATURE GEOSCIENCE, volume 8, no. 6, pages 433-440, DOI:10.1038/NGEO2424. [PDF]
• Huntingford C, Marsh T, Scaife AA, Kendon EJ, Hannaford J, Kay AL, Lockwood M, Prudhomme C, Reynard NS, Parry S. (2015) Reply to 'Drivers of the 2013/14 winter floods in the UK', Nature Climate Change, volume 5, no. 6, pages 491-492, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2613.
• Siegert S, Stephenson DB, Sansom PG, Scaife AA, Eade R, Arribas A. (2015) A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?. [PDF]
• Smith DM, Allan RP, Coward AC, Eade R, Hyder P, Liu C, Loeb NG, Palmer MD, Roberts CD, Scaife AA. (2015) Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models, Geophysical Research Letters.

2014

• Kim H-M, Ham Y-G, Scaife AA. (2014) Improvement of Initialized Decadal Predictions over the North Pacific Ocean by Systematic Anomaly Pattern Correction, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 27, no. 13, pages 5148-5162, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00519.1. [PDF]
• Seviour WJM, Hardiman SC, Gray LJ, Butchart N, MacLachlan C, Scaife AA. (2014) Skillful Seasonal Prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic Ozone, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 27, no. 19, pages 7462-7474, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00264.1. [PDF]
• Athanasiadis PJ, Bellucci A, Hermanson L, Scaife AA, MacLachlan C, Arribas A, Materia S, Borrelli A, Gualdi S. (2014) The Representation of Atmospheric Blocking and the Associated Low-Frequency Variability in Two Seasonal Prediction Systems, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 27, no. 24, pages 9082-9100, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00291.1. [PDF]
• Smith DM, Dunstone NJ, Eade R, Fereday D, Hermanson L, Murphy JM, Pohlmann H, Robinson N, Scaife AA. (2014) Comments on "Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations", JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 27, no. 1, pages 487-489, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00220.1. [PDF]
• Menary MB, Scaife AA. (2014) Naturally forced multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 42, no. 5-6, pages 1347-1362, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-2028-x. [PDF]
• Lott FC, Gordon M, Graham RJ, Scaife AA, Vellinga M. (2014) Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 9, no. 10, article no. ARTN 104017, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104017. [PDF]
• Knight JR, Andrews MB, Smith DM, Arribas A, Colman AW, Dunstone NJ, Eade R, Hermanson L, MacLachlan C, Peterson KA. (2014) Predictions of Climate Several Years Ahead Using an Improved Decadal Prediction System, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 27, no. 20, pages 7550-7567, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00069.1. [PDF]
• Eade R, Smith D, Scaife A, Wallace E, Dunstone N, Hermanson L, Robinson N. (2014) Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 41, no. 15, pages 5620-5628, DOI:10.1002/2014GL061146. [PDF]
• Manzini E, Karpechko AY, Anstey J, Baldwin MP, Black RX, Cagnazzo C, Calvo N, Charlton-Perez A, Christiansen B, Davini P. (2014) Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 119, no. 13, article no. ARTN 2013JD021403, DOI:10.1002/2013JD021403. [PDF]
• Huntingford C, Marsh T, Scaife AA, Kendon EJ, Hannaford J, Kay AL, Lockwood M, Prudhomme C, Reynard NS, Parry S. (2014) Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14, Nature Climate Change, volume 4, no. 9, pages 769-777, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2314.
• Hermanson L, Eade R, Robinson NH, Dunstone NJ, Andrews MB, Knight JR, Scaife AA, Smith DM. (2014) Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 41, no. 14, pages 5167-5174, DOI:10.1002/2014GL060420.
• Scaife AA, Arribas A, Blockley E, Brookshaw A, Clark RT, Dunstone N, Eade R, Fereday D, Folland CK, Gordon M. (2014) Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 41, no. 7, pages 2514-2519, DOI:10.1002/2014GL059637.
• Scaife AA, Athanassiadou M, Andrews M, Arribas A, Baldwin M, Dunstone N, Knight J, Maclachlan C, Manzini E, Müller WA. (2014) Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 41, no. 5, pages 1752-1758, DOI:10.1002/2013GL059160.

2013

• Kirtman B, Anderson D, Brunet G, Kang I-S, Scaife AA, Smith D. (2013) Prediction from Weeks to Decades, Climate Science for Serving Society, Springer Nature, 205-235, DOI:10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_8.
• Sherwood SC, Alexander MJ, Brown AR, McFarlane NA, Gerber EP, Feingold G, Scaife AA, Grabowski WW. (2013) Climate Processes: Clouds, Aerosols and Dynamics, Climate Science for Serving Society, Springer Nature, 73-103, DOI:10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_4.
• Geller MA, Alexander MJ, Love PT, Bacmeister J, Ern M, Hertzog A, Manzini E, Preusse P, Sato K, Scaife AA. (2013) A Comparison between Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes in Observations and Climate Models, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 26, no. 17, pages 6383-6405, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00545.1. [PDF]
• Smith DM, Scaife AA, Boer GJ, Caian M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Guemas V, Hawkins E, Hazeleger W, Hermanson L, Ho CK. (2013) Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 41, no. 11-12, pages 2875-2888, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0. [PDF]
• Gray LJ, Scaife AA, Mitchell DM, Osprey S, Ineson S, Hardiman S, Butchart N, Knight J, Sutton R, Kodera K. (2013) A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 118, no. 24, pages 13405-13420, DOI:10.1002/2013JD020062. [PDF]
• Simmonds PG, Manning AJ, Athanassiadou M, Scaife AA, Derwent RG, O'Doherty S, Harth CM, Weiss RF, Dutton GS, Hall BD. (2013) Interannual fluctuations in the seasonal cycle of nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons due to the Brewer-Dobson circulation, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 118, no. 19, pages 10694-10706, DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50832. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Ineson S, Knight JR, Gray L, Kodera K, Smith DM. (2013) A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 40, no. 2, pages 434-439, DOI:10.1002/grl.50099. [PDF]
• Maycock AC, Joshi MM, Shine KP, Scaife AA. (2013) The Circulation Response to Idealized Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapor, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 26, no. 2, pages 545-561, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00155.1. [PDF]
• Maidens A, Arribas A, Scaife AA, MacLachlan C, Peterson D, Knight J. (2013) The Influence of Surface Forcings on Prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation Regime of Winter 2010/11, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, volume 141, no. 11, pages 3801-3813, DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00033.1. [PDF]
• Christidis N, Stott PA, Scaife AA, Arribas A, Jones GS, Copsey D, Knight JR, Tennant WJ. (2013) A New HadGEM3-A-Based System for Attribution of Weather- and Climate-Related Extreme Events, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 26, no. 9, pages 2756-2783, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00169.1. [PDF]

2012

• Scaife AA, Spangehl T, Fereday DR, Cubasch U, Langematz U, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP. (2012) Climate change projections and stratosphere-troposphere interaction, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 38, no. 9-10, pages 2089-2097, DOI:10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7. [PDF]
• Gerber EP, Butler A, Calvo N, Charlton-Perez A, Giorgetta M, Manzini E, Perlwitz J, Polvani LM, Sassi F, Scaife AA. (2012) ASSESSING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF STRATOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND VARIABILITY ON THE EARTH SYSTEM, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 93, no. 6, pages 845-859, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00145.1. [PDF]
• Fereday DR, Maidens A, Arribas A, Scaife AA, Knight JR. (2012) Seasonal forecasts of northern hemisphere winter 2009/10, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 7, no. 3, article no. ARTN 034031, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034031. [PDF]
• Eade R, Hamilton E, Smith DM, Graham RJ, Scaife AA. (2012) Forecasting the number of extreme daily events out to a decade ahead, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 117, article no. ARTN D21110, DOI:10.1029/2012JD018015. [PDF]
• Smith DM, Scaife AA, Kirtman BP. (2012) What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 7, no. 1, article no. ARTN 015602, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602. [PDF]
• Hamilton E, Eade R, Graham RJ, Scaife AA, Smith DM, Maidens A, MacLachlan C. (2012) Forecasting the number of extreme daily events on seasonal timescales, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 117, article no. ARTN D03114, DOI:10.1029/2011JD016541. [PDF]
• Folland CK, Scaife AA, Lindesay J, Stephenson DB. (2012) How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?, International Journal of Climatology, volume 32, no. 6, pages 801-818, DOI:10.1002/joc.2314.

2011

• Walters DN, Best MJ, Bushell AC, Copsey D, Edwards JM, Falloon PD, Harris CM, Lock AP, Manners JC, Morcrette CJ. (2011) The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations, volume 4, no. 2, pages 1213-1271, DOI:10.5194/gmdd-4-1213-2011.
• Ineson S, Scaife AA, Knight JR, Manners JC, Dunstone NJ, Gray LJ, Haigh JD. (2011) Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, NATURE GEOSCIENCE, volume 4, no. 11, pages 753-757, DOI:10.1038/NGEO1282. [PDF]
• Arribas A, Glover M, Maidens A, Peterson K, Gordon M, MacLachlan C, Graham R, Fereday D, Camp J, Scaife AA. (2011) The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, volume 139, no. 6, pages 1891-1910, DOI:10.1175/2010MWR3615.1. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Copsey D, Gordon C, Harris C, Hinton T, Keeley S, O'Neill A, Roberts M, Williams K. (2011) Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 38, article no. ARTN L23703, DOI:10.1029/2011GL049573. [PDF]
• Walters DN, Best MJ, Bushell AC, Copsey D, Edwards JM, Falloon PD, Harris CM, Lock AP, Manners JC, Morcrette CJ. (2011) The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations, GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, volume 4, no. 4, pages 919-941, DOI:10.5194/gmd-4-919-2011. [PDF]

2010

• Stockdale TN, Alves O, Boer G, Deque M, Ding Y, Kumar A, Kumar K, Landman W, Mason S, Nobre P. (2010) Understanding and predicting seasonal-to-interannual climate variability - The producer perspective, Procedia Environmental Sciences, volume 1, no. 1, pages 55-80, DOI:10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.006.
• Marshall AG, Scaife AA. (2010) Improved predictability of stratospheric sudden warming events in an atmospheric general circulation model with enhanced stratospheric resolution, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 115, article no. ARTN D16114, DOI:10.1029/2009JD012643. [PDF]
• Kolstad EW, Breiteig T, Scaife AA. (2010) The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 136, no. 649, pages 886-893, DOI:10.1002/qj.620. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Woollings T, Knight J, Martin G, Hinton T. (2010) Atmospheric Blocking and Mean Biases in Climate Models, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 23, no. 23, pages 6143-6152, DOI:10.1175/2010JCLI3728.1. [PDF]
• Smith DM, Eade R, Dunstone NJ, Fereday D, Murphy JM, Pohlmann H, Scaife AA. (2010) Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency, NATURE GEOSCIENCE, volume 3, no. 12, pages 846-849, DOI:10.1038/NGEO1004. [PDF]
• Dall'Amico M, Gray LJ, Rosenlof KH, Scaife AA, Shine KP, Stott PA. (2010) Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 34, no. 2-3, pages 381-398, DOI:10.1007/s00382-009-0604-x. [PDF]
• Dall'Amico M, Stott PA, Scaife AA, Gray LJ, Rosenlof KH, Karpechko AY. (2010) Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 34, no. 2-3, pages 399-417, DOI:10.1007/s00382-009-0580-1. [PDF]
• Murphy J, Kattsov V, Keenlyside N, Kimoto M, Meehl G, Mehta V, Pohlmann H, Scaife A, Smith D. (2010) Towards Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability and Change, WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3, volume 1, pages 287-304, DOI:10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.018. [PDF]

2009

• Arribas A, Cusack S, Glover M, Peterson K, Gordon M, Maidens A, Scaife A. (2009) Adapting to climate change, the new Met Office Hadley Centre seasonal-to-decadal system, IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science, volume 6, no. 39, DOI:10.1088/1755-1307/6/39/392013.
• Kolstad EW, Breiteig T, Scaife AA. (2009) The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.0906.0027.
• Scaife AA, Kucharski F, Folland CK, Kinter J, Broennimann S, Fereday D, Fischer AM, Grainger S, Jin EK, Kang IS. (2009) The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 33, no. 5, pages 603-614, DOI:10.1007/s00382-008-0451-1. [PDF]
• Zhou T, Wu B, Scaife AA, Broennimann S, Cherchi A, Fereday D, Fischer AM, Folland CK, Jin KE, Kinter J. (2009) The CLIVAR C20C project: which components of the Asian-Australian monsoon circulation variations are forced and reproducible?, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 33, no. 7-8, pages 1051-1068, DOI:10.1007/s00382-008-0501-8. [PDF]
• Marshall AG, Scaife AA. (2009) Impact of the QBO on surface winter climate, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 114, article no. ARTN D18110, DOI:10.1029/2009JD011737. [PDF]
• Ineson S, Scaife AA. (2009) The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Nino, NATURE GEOSCIENCE, volume 2, no. 1, pages 32-36, DOI:10.1038/NGEO381. [PDF]
• Marshall AG, Scaife AA, Ineson S. (2009) Enhanced Seasonal Prediction of European Winter Warming following Volcanic Eruptions, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 22, no. 23, pages 6168-6180, DOI:10.1175/2009JCLI3145.1. [PDF]
• Bell CJ, Gray LJ, Charlton-Perez AJ, Joshi MM, Scaife AA. (2009) Stratospheric Communication of El Nino Teleconnections to European Winter, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 22, no. 15, pages 4083-4096, DOI:10.1175/2009JCLI2717.1. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Buontempo C, Ringer M, Sanderson M, Gordon C, Mitchell JFB. (2009) Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 90, no. 10, pages 1549-1U68, DOI:10.1175/2009BAMS2753.1. [PDF]
• Kucharski F, Scaife AA, Yoo JH, Folland CK, Kinter J, Knight J, Fereday D, Fischer AM, Jin EK, Kroeger J. (2009) The CLIVAR C20C project: skill of simulating Indian monsoon rainfall on interannual to decadal timescales. Does GHG forcing play a role?, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 33, no. 5, pages 615-627, DOI:10.1007/s00382-008-0462-y. [PDF]

2008

• Scaife A, Folland C, Mitchell J. (2008) Predicting global warming, Chemical Engineer, no. 801, pages 26-29.
• Scaife A, Folland C, Mitchell J. (2008) Global warming 2: Predicting global warming, Chemical Engineer, no. 801, pages 26-29.
• Scaife AA, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Moberg A, Knight JR. (2008) European climate extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 21, no. 1, pages 72-83, DOI:10.1175/2007JCLI1631.1. [PDF]
• Karpechko AY, Gillett NP, Marshall GJ, Scaife AA. (2008) Stratospheric influence on circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere troposphere in coupled climate models, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 35, no. 20, article no. ARTN L20806, DOI:10.1029/2008GL035354. [PDF]
• Fereday DR, Knight JR, Scaife AA, Folland CK, Philipp A. (2008) Cluster analysis of North Atlantic-European circulation types and links with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 21, no. 15, pages 3687-3703, DOI:10.1175/2007JCLI1875.1. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Knight JR. (2008) Ensemble simulations of the cold European winter of 2005-2006, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 134, no. 636, pages 1647-1659, DOI:10.1002/qj.312. [PDF]

2007

• Scaife A, Folland C, Mitchell J. (2007) A model approach to climate change, Physics World, volume 20, no. 2, pages 20-25, DOI:10.1088/2058-7058/20/2/29.
• Parker D, Folland C, Scaife A, Knight J, Colman A, Baines P, Dong B. (2007) Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 112, no. D18, article no. ARTN D18115, DOI:10.1029/2007JD008411. [PDF]

2006

• Folland CK, Parker DE, Scaife AA, Kennedy JJ, Colman AW, Brookshaw A, Cusack S, Huddleston MR. (2006) The 2005/06 winter in Europe and the United Kingdom: Part 2 –Prediction techniques and their assessment against observations, Weather, volume 61, no. 12, pages 337-346, DOI:10.1256/wea.182.06.
• Graham RJ, Gordon C, Huddleston MR, Davey M, Norton W, Colman A, Scaife AA, Brookshaw A, Ingleby B, McLean P. (2006) The 2005/06 winter in Europe and the United Kingdom: Part 1 –How the Met Office forecast was produced and communicated, Weather, volume 61, no. 12, pages 327-336, DOI:10.1256/wea.181.06.
• Butchart N, Scaife AA, Bourqui M, de Grandpre J, Hare SHE, Kettleborough J, Langematz U, Manzini E, Sassi F, Shibata K. (2006) Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 27, no. 7-8, pages 727-741, DOI:10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4. [PDF]
• Toniazzo T, Scaife AA. (2006) The influence of ENSO on winter North Atlantic climate, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 33, no. 24, article no. ARTN L24704, DOI:10.1029/2006GL027881. [PDF]
• Ringer MA, Martin GM, Greeves CZ, Hinton TJ, James PM, Pope VD, Scaife AA, Stratton RA, Inness PM, Slingo JM. (2006) The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 19, no. 7, pages 1302-1326, DOI:10.1175/JCLI3713.1. [PDF]
• Dong BW, Sutton RT, Scaife AA. (2006) Multidecadal modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 33, no. 8, article no. ARTN L08705, DOI:10.1029/2006GL025766. [PDF]
• Joshi MM, Charlton AJ, Scaife AA. (2006) On the influence of stratospheric water vapor changes on the tropospheric circulation, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 33, no. 9, article no. ARTN L09806, DOI:10.1029/2006GL025983. [PDF]
• Pascoe CL, Gray LJ, Scaife AA. (2006) A GCM study of the influence of equatorial winds on the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 33, no. 6, article no. ARTN L06825, DOI:10.1029/2005GL024715. [PDF]
• Knight JR, Folland CK, Scaife AA. (2006) Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 33, no. 17, article no. ARTN L17706, DOI:10.1029/2006GL026242. [PDF]

2005

• Manney GL, Sabutis JL, Allen DR, Lahoz WA, Scaife AA, Randall CE, Pawson S, Naujokat B, Swinbank R. (2005) Dynamics and transport during the major warming, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 86, no. 2, pages 160-161.
• Thorne PW, Karl TR, Coleman H, Folland CK, Murray B, Parker DE, Ramaswamy V, Rossow W, Scaife AA, Tett SFB. (2005) Vertical profiles of temperature trends, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 86, no. 10, pages 1471-1476, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-86-10-1471. [PDF]
• Manney GL, Sabutis JL, Allen DR, Lahoz WA, Scaife AA, Randall CE, Pawson S, Naujokat B, Swinbank R. (2005) Simulations of dynamics and transport during the September 2002 Antarctic major warming, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, volume 62, no. 3, pages 690-707, DOI:10.1175/JAS-3313.1. [PDF]
• Warner CD, Scaife AA, Butchart N. (2005) Filtering of parameterized nonorographic gravity waves in the met office unified model, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, volume 62, no. 6, pages 1831-1848, DOI:10.1175/JAS3450.1. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Jackson DR, Swinbank R, Butchart N, Thornton HE, Keil M, Henderson L. (2005) Stratospheric vacillations and the major warming over Antarctica in 2002, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, volume 62, no. 3, pages 629-639, DOI:10.1175/JAS-3334.1. [PDF]
• Scaife AA, Knight JR, Vallis GK, Folland CK. (2005) A stratospheric influence on the winter NAO and North Atlantic surface climate, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 32, no. 18, pages 1-5, DOI:10.1029/2005GL023226.

2003

• Scaife AA, Butchart N, Jackson DR, Swinbank R. (2003) Can changes in ENSO activity help to explain increasing stratospheric water vapor?, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 30, no. 17, DOI:10.1029/2003GL017591.
• Butchart N, Scaife AA, Austin J, Hare SHE, Knight JR. (2003) Quasi-biennial oscillation in ozone in a coupled chemistry-climate model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, volume 108, no. 15, DOI:10.1029/2002jd003004.
• Horinouchi T, Pawson S, Shibata K, Langematz U, Manzini E, Giorgetta MA, Sassi F, Wilson RJ, Hamilton K, De Grandpré J. (2003) Tropical comulus convection and upward-propagating waves in Middle-Atmospheric GCMs, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 60, no. 22, pages 2765-2782, DOI:10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2765:TCCAUW>2.0.CO;2.

2002

• Scaife AA, Butchart N, Warner CD, Swinbank R. (2002) Impact of a spectral gravity wave parameterization on the stratosphere in the Met Office Unified Model, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, volume 59, no. 9, pages 1473-1489, DOI:10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<1473:IOASGW>2.0.CO;2.

2001

• Amodei M, Pawson S, Scaife AA, Langematz U, Lahoz W, Li DM, Simon P. (2001) The SAO and Kelvin waves in the EuroGRIPS GCMS and the UK Met. Office analyses, Annales Geophysicae, volume 19, no. 1, pages 99-114, DOI:10.5194/angeo-19-99-2001.
• Butchart N, Scaife AA. (2001) Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate, Nature, volume 410, no. 6830, pages 799-802, DOI:10.1038/35071047.

2000

• Scaife AA, Austin J, Butchart N, Pawson S, Keil M, Nash J, James IN. (2000) Seasonal and interannual variability of the stratosphere diagnosed from UKMO TOVS analyses, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 126, no. 568, pages 2585-2604, DOI:10.1002/qj.49712656812.
• Butchart N, Austin J, Knight JR, Scaife AA, Gallani ML. (2000) The response of the stratospheric climate to projected changes in the concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases from 1992 to 2051, Journal of Climate, volume 13, no. 13, pages 2142-2159, DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2142:TROTSC>2.0.CO;2.
• Scaife AA, James IN. (2000) Response of the stratosphere to interannual variability of tropospheric planetary waves, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 126, no. 562, pages 275-297, DOI:10.1002/qj.49712656214.
• Scaife AA, Butchart N, Warner CD, Stainforth D, Norton W, Austin J. (2000) Realistic quasi-biennial oscillations in a simulation of the global climate, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 27, no. 21, pages 3481-3484, DOI:10.1029/2000GL011625.
• Pawson S, Kodera K, Hamilton K, Shepherd TG, Beagley SR, Boville BA, Farrara JD, Fairlie TDA, Kitoh A, Lahoz WA. (2000) The GCM-reality intercomparison project for SPARC (GRIPS): Scientific issues and initial results, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 81, no. 4, pages 781-796, DOI:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0781:TGIPFS>2.3.CO;2.

Back to top

---