Skip to main content

Mathematics and Statistics

Photo of Prof Mark Kelson

Prof Mark Kelson

Professor of Statistics for Health

 M.J.Kelson@exeter.ac.uk

 (Streatham) 2562

 01392 722562

Visit personal website


Overview

I am a statistician/biostatistician/data scientist/data consultant/machine learner/data botherer (delete as appropriate). 

What I do is analyse data using whatever approach fits best. Actually, that’s not quite correct. I mostly attend meetings and write recommendation letters these days (I’m getting pretty good at both). But occasionally I carve out enough time to do some actual work and I’m never happier. 

I paddle my metaphorical canoe at the confluence of clinical trials, medical statistics, causal inference, reproducibility and data science. The waters are choppy. And murky. And filled with hungry giant octopuses. Where was I? 

I apply myself to human health- mostly physical activity and mental health but I increasingly work on policy evaluation. 

I suppose the perfect study for me would be an open and pre-registered policy evaluation of physical activity on some health outcome (with free coffee, international travel and academic acclaim assured).  

I am interested in bringing the rigour, methodology and philosophy of clinical trials into settings outside of trials, as well as delivering the insights that causal inference brings into the trials setting. If this sounds good to you, do get in touch.

I’m on LinkedIn, BlueSky and Mastodon

And for the search engine optimisation, here’s a word-explosion: statistics, causality, data science, machine learning, clinical trials, policy evaluation, Nobel-prize winning potential, devastatingly handsome, hilarious, genius god-like brilliance.

Teaching

 I lead an MSc module called “Working with Data”. I lead the Applied Data Science and Statistics programme. I am the academic lead for an undergraduate degree apprenticeship in Data Science run in partnership with Exeter College. I also run meta-analysis training with Cardiff University. 

Other bits

I am a research Fellow with the Alan Turing Institute.

I am the Reproducibility Network institutional lead for the University of Exeter and chair of the ethics committee for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science and Mathematics. 

I am an Assistant Director for the Institute of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence with the remit of partnerships. I sit on the IDSAI management group. 

I am an editor for Statistical Methods in Medical Research http://journals.sagepub.com/home/smm and statistical editor for the International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity https://ijbnpa.biomedcentral.com/

I am available to supervise undergraduate projects on physical activity or mental health. I currently supervise

Xiaoqing Chen -  The Alan Turing Institute - “Theory and Application of Highly Multivariate High-dimensional Spatial Stochastic Processes” 

Olivia Malkowski - University of Bath - “Developing a precision, machine learning-powered, technological intervention to promote physical activity and healthy ageing in older adults of low socioeconomic status.”

Ceren Barlas - University of Exeter - “An index for climate change adaptation in the UK

Marisa Casanova Dias - University of Cardiff - “Individualising the risk of recurrence for women with bipolar disorder in the perinatal period

I sit on a number of committees for trials including

IMPRINT

AFRI-c study

NAPSACC (UK)

Back to top


Publications

Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.

| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

  • White J, Hawkins J, Madden K, Grant A, Er V, Angel L, Pickles T, Kelson M, Fletcher A, Murphy S. (2017) Adapting the ASSIST model of informal peer-led intervention delivery to the Talk to FRANK drug prevention programme in UK secondary schools (ASSIST+ FRANK): intervention development, refinement and a pilot cluster randomised controlled trial, Public Health Research, volume 5, article no. 7.
  • White J, Hawkins J, Madden K, Grant A, Er V, Angel L, Pickles T, Kelson M, Fletcher A, Murphy S. (2017) Methods.
  • Bosanquet DC, Ambler GK, Waldron C-A, Thomas-Jones E, Brookes-Howell L, Kelson M, Pickles T, Harris D, Fitzsimmons D, Saxena N. (2017) Perineural local anaesthetic catheter after major lower limb amputation trial (PLACEMENT): study protocol for a randomised controlled pilot study, Trials, volume 18, pages 629-629, article no. 1.
  • Hawkins J, Edwards M, Charles J, Jago R, Kelson M, Morgan K, Murphy S, Oliver E, Simpson S, Edwards RT. (2017) Protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial of the use of Physical ACtivity monitors in an Exercise Referral Setting: the PACERS study, Pilot and feasibility studies, volume 3, pages 51-51, article no. 1.
  • White J, Hawkins J, Madden K, Grant A, Er V, Angel L, Pickles T, Kelson M, Fletcher A, Murphy S. (2017) Adaptation of the ASSIST peer-led smoking intervention to deliver information from the Talk to FRANK drug education website (ASSIST+ FRANK): a pilot cluster-randomised controlled trial, The Lancet, volume 390, pages S1-S1.
  • Fritz NE, Hamana K, Kelson M, Rosser A, Busse M, Quinn L. (2017) Motor-Cognitive Dual-Task Deficits in Individuals with Early-to-Mid-Stage Huntington Disease.
  • Matthews L, Pugmire J, Moore L, Kelson M, McConnachie A, McIntosh E, Morgan-Trimmer S, Murphy S, Hughes K, Coulman E. (2017) Study protocol for the 'HelpMeDoIt!' randomised controlled feasibility trial: an app, web and social support-based weight loss intervention for adults with obesity, BMJ Open, volume 7, no. 10, DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2017-017159. [PDF]
  • Copeland L, McNamara R, Kelson M, Simpson S. (2017) The development of a coding system to code planning talk within motivational interviewing, Patient Education and Counseling, volume 100, no. 2, pages 313-319, DOI:10.1016/j.pec.2016.09.003. [PDF]
  • Busse M, Quinn L, Drew C, Kelson M, Trubey R, McEwan K, Jones C, Townson J, Dawes H, Tudor-Edwards R. (2017) Physical Activity Self-Management and Coaching Compared to Social Interaction in Huntington Disease: Results From the ENGAGE-HD Randomized, Controlled Pilot Feasibility Trial, Physical Therapy, volume 97, no. 6, pages 625-639, DOI:10.1093/ptj/pzx031. [PDF]

2016

2015

  • Simpson SA, McNamara R, Shaw C, Kelson M, Moriarty Y, Randell E, Cohen D, Alam MF, Copeland L, Duncan D. (2015) Process evaluation: interview results.
  • Simpson SA, McNamara R, Shaw C, Kelson M, Moriarty Y, Randell E, Cohen D, Alam MF, Copeland L, Duncan D. (2015) Process evaluation: focus group results.
  • Simpson S, McNamara R, Shaw C, Moriarty Y, Randell E, Copeland L, Kelly M, Espinasse A. (2015) Weight loss maintenance in adults: the WILMA trial process evaluation, European Health Psychologist, volume 17, article no. Suppl.
  • Simpson SA, McNamara R, Shaw C, Kelson M, Moriarty Y, Randell E, Cohen D, Alam MF, Copeland L, Duncan D. (2015) Process evaluation: mixed-methods results.
  • Simpson SA, McNamara R, Shaw C, Kelson M, Moriarty Y, Randell E, Cohen D, Alam MF, Copeland L, Duncan D. (2015) The WeIght Loss Maintenance in Adults trial intervention.
  • Atwan AA, Ingram JR, Abbott R, Kelson MJ, Pickles T, Bauer A, Taylor C, Piguet V. (2015) Fumaric acid esters for psoriasis: Cochrane systematic review, BRITISH JOURNAL OF DERMATOLOGY, volume 173, pages 64-64. [PDF]
  • Atwan A, Ingram JR, Abbott R, Kelson MJ, Pickles T, Bauer A, Piguet V. (2015) Oral fumaric acid esters for psoriasis, Cochrane Database Syst Rev, volume 2015, no. 8, DOI:10.1002/14651858.CD010497.pub2. [PDF]
  • Copeland L, McNamara R, Kelson M, Simpson S. (2015) Mechanisms of change within motivational interviewing in relation to health behaviors outcomes: A systematic review, Patient Education and Counseling, volume 98, no. 4, pages 401-411, DOI:10.1016/j.pec.2014.11.022. [PDF]
  • Simpson SA, McNamara R, Shaw C, Kelson M, Moriarty Y, Randell E, Cohen D, Alam MF, Copeland L, Duncan D. (2015) A feasibility randomised controlled trial of a motivational interviewing-based intervention for weight loss maintenance in adults, Health Technology Assessment, volume 19, no. 50, pages 1-378, DOI:10.3310/hta19500. [PDF]
  • O'Brien K, Bellis TW, Kelson M, Hood K, Butler CC, Edwards A. (2015) Clinical predictors of antibiotic prescribing for acutely ill children in primary care: An observational study, British Journal of General Practice, volume 65, no. 638, pages e585-e592, DOI:10.3399/bjgp15X686497.

2014

2013

2012

  • Hayes SL, Mann MK, Morgan FM, Kelly MJ, Weightman AL. (2012) 當地醫療保健與當地政府機關間的合作以利醫療提升.
  • Lyons RA, Hutchings H, Rodgers SE, Hyatt MA, Demmler J, Gabbe BJ, Brooks CJ, Brophy S, Jones K, Ford DV. (2012) Development and use of a privacy-protecting total population record linkage system to support observational, interventional, and policy relevant research, The Lancet, volume 380, pages S6-S6.
  • Debono K, Wasley D, Riley J, Enright S, Collett J, Dawes H, Quinn L, Rosser A, Busse M, Hunt S. (2012) Q13 Perspectives of participating in a 12-week exercise programme for people with early-mid stage Huntington’s disease, J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry, volume 83, pages A59-A59, article no. Suppl 1.
  • Busse M, Quinn L, Debono K, Jones K, Collett J, Playle R, Kelly M, Backx K, Dawes H, Rosser A. (2012) Q12 A randomised feasibility study of a 12-week exercise programme in Huntington’s disease (HD), J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry, volume 83, pages A58-A59, article no. Suppl 1.
  • Hayes S, Mann MK, Morgan F, Kelly M, Weightman AL. (2012) Collaboration between local health and local government agencies for health improvement, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, volume 10, pages 1-138.
  • Hayes SL, Mann MK, Morgan FM, Kelly MJ, Weightman AL. (2012) Collaboration between local health and local government agencies for health improvement, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, volume 2012, no. 10, DOI:10.1002/14651858.CD007825.pub6.
  • Hayes SL, Mann MK, Morgan FM, Kelly MJ, Weightman AL. (2012) Collaboration between local health and local government agencies for health improvement, Cochrane database of systematic reviews (Online), volume 10.
  • Fone DL, Dunstan F, White J, Kelly M, Farewell D, John G, Lyons RA, Lloyd K. (2012) Cohort Profile: The Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Electronic Cohort Study (E-CATALyST), International Journal of Epidemiology, volume 42, no. 6, pages 1620-1628, DOI:10.1093/ije/dys175. [PDF]
  • van Vugt SF, Butler CC, Hood K, Kelly MJ, Coenen S, Goossens H, Little P, Verheij TJ. (2012) Predicting benign course and prolonged illness in lower respiratory tract infections: a 13 European country study, FAMILY PRACTICE, volume 29, no. 2, pages 131-138, DOI:10.1093/fampra/cmr081. [PDF]

2011

  • Smith D, Griffiths E, Poole R, di Florio A, Barnes E, Kelly M, Cohen D, Craddock N, Hood K, Simpson S. (2011) beating bipolar: exploratory trial of a novel internet-based psychoeducational treatment for bipolar disorder: p194, Bipolar Disorders, volume 13, pages 91-91.
  • Wood J, Butler C, Hood K, Kelly M, Verheij T, Little P, Torres A, Blasi F, Schaberg T, Goossens H. (2011) Antibiotica bij acute hoest in de eerste lijn in Europa: in overeenstemming met de richtlijnen?, Huisarts nu: maandblad van de Wetenschappelijke Vereniging van Vlaamse Huisartsen.-Brussel, volume 40, pages 384-385.
  • Butler CC, Kelly MJ, Hood K. (2011) Expectorations colorées: un motif d’antibiothérapie?, Minerva, volume 10, pages 118-118, article no. 10.
  • Playle R, Kelly M, Newcombe R, Hood K. (2011) Coping with clustering in sample size calculations, Trials, volume 12, pages A27-A27, article no. 1.
  • Butler C, Kelly M, Hood K, Goossens H, Coenen S. (2011) Gekleurd sputum bij acute hoest en lageluchtweginfecties, reden om antibiotica voor te schrijven?, Huisarts nu: maandblad van de Wetenschappelijke Vereniging van Vlaamse Huisartsen.-Brussel, volume 40, pages 386-387, article no. 9.
  • Hayes SL, Mann MK, Morgan FM, Kitcher H, Kelly MJ, Weightman AL. (2011) Colaboración entre las dependencias gubernamentales locales y sanitarias locales para mejorar la salud.
  • Hayes SL, Mann MK, Morgan FM, Kitcher H, Kelly MJ, Weightman AL. (2011) Collaboration entre organismes de santé locaux et agences gouvernementales locales pour l’amélioration de la santé.
  • Butler CC, Kelly MJ, Hood K, Schaberg T, Melbye H, Serra-Prat M, Blasi F, Little P, Verheij T, Mölstad S. (2011) Antibiotic prescribing for discoloured sputum in acute cough/LRTI, European Respiratory Journal, pages erj01339-2010.
  • Smith DJ, Griffiths E, Kelly M, Hood K, Craddock N, Simpson SA. (2011) Screening for bipolar disorder in a UK primary care setting, BIPOLAR DISORDERS, volume 13, pages 91-92. [PDF]
  • Smith DJ, Griffiths E, Poole R, di Florio A, Barnes E, Kelly MJ, Craddock N, Hood K, Simpson S. (2011) Beating Bipolar: exploratory trial of a novel internet‐based psychoeducational treatment for bipolar disorder, Bipolar Disorders, volume 13, no. 5-6, pages 571-577, DOI:10.1111/j.1399-5618.2011.00949.x. [PDF]
  • Butler CC, Kelly MJ, Hood K, Schaberg T, Melbye H, Serra-Prat M, Blasi F, Little P, Verheij T, Mölstad S. (2011) Antibiotic prescribing for discoloured sputum in acute cough/lower respiratory tract infection, European Respiratory Journal, volume 38, no. 1, pages 119-125, DOI:10.1183/09031936.00133910.
  • Wood J, Butler CC, Hood K, Kelly MJ, Verheij T, Little P, Torres A, Blasi F, Schaberg T, Goossens H. (2011) Antibiotic prescribing for adults with acute cough/lower respiratory tract infection: congruence with guidelines, EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY JOURNAL, volume 38, no. 1, pages 112-118, DOI:10.1183/09031936.00145810. [PDF]

2010

2009

  • Butler C, Hood K, Verheij T, Little P, Melbye H, Nuttall J, Kelly M, Mölstad S, Godycki-Cwirko M, Almirall J. (2009) Antibiotics in case of acute cough: Prescribing habits of general practitioners in 13 European countries, Huisarts en Wetenschap, volume 52, pages 571-575, article no. 12.
  • Edwards A, Egbunike J, Bale S, Bowden S, Button L, Hood K, Kelly M, Kinnersley P, Owen-Jones E, Porter A. (2009) Identifying service improvements for primary care provision: evaluating patient and carer experiences of using ‘out-of-hours’ services.
  • Butler C, Hood K, Verheij T, Little P, Melbye H, Nuttall J, Kelly M, Mölstad S, Godycki-Cwirko M, Almirall J. (2009) Antibiotica voor acute hoest: het voorschrijfgedrag van huisartsen in dertien Europese landen, Huisarts en wetenschap, volume 52, pages 571-575, article no. 12.
  • Hood K, Kelly M, Nuttall J, Verheij T, Little P, Brookes-Howell L, Goosens H, Butler C. (2009) GRACE - observations on current diagnostic procedures in Europe, SWISS MEDICAL WEEKLY, volume 139, no. 33-34, pages 65S-65S. [PDF]
  • Butler C, Hood K, Verheij T, Little P, Melbye H, Nuttall J, Kelly M, Mölstad S, Godycki-Cwirko M, Almirall J. (2009) Antibiotica voor acute hoest: het voorschrijfgedrag van huisartsen in dertien Europese landen, Huisarts en Wetenschap, volume 52, no. 12, pages 571-575, DOI:10.1007/bf03085798. [PDF]
  • Butler CC, Hood K, Verheij T, Little P, Melbye H, Nuttall J, Statistician MJK, Molstad S, Godycki-Cwirko M, Almirall J. (2009) Variation in antibiotic prescribing and its impact on recovery in patients with acute cough in primary care: prospective study in 13 countries, BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, volume 338, article no. ARTN b2242, DOI:10.1136/bmj.b2242. [PDF]

2008

2007

  • Kelly M, Dunstan F, Fone DL. (2007) 053 The Impact Of Sparse Data At The Household Level In Multilevel Modelling, Journal Of Epidemiology & Community Health, volume 61, pages A16-A16.

2006

  • Kelly MJ, Dunstan FD, Fone DL. (2006) 67 Administrative Areas: An Apposite Tool For Neighbourhood Research?, Journal Of Epidemiology & Community Health, volume 60, pages A20-A21.

Back to top