Professor James Screen

Prof. Screen is a Professor in Climate Science within the Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy. His group conducts research on various topics in climate dynamics, across time and spatial scales; from seasonal prediction to multidecadal climate change, and from the Arctic to Antarctic (and everything in between). Prof. Screen is an internationally recognised expert in modelling the climate response to Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes and was a founding co-chair of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. He has won several awards in recognition of advancing understanding of the causes and global effects of polar amplification of climate change. 

Recent Publications (past 5 years)

A full list of publications and citations can be found here.

2026

• Sabatani, D., N. Williams, D.B. Stephenson, J.A. Screen, A. Scaife and H. Yu, 2026: Reliable detection of the signal-to-noise paradox in climate predictions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., submitted.
• Yu, H. J.A. Screen, A. Scaife, D. Sabatani, D.B. Stephenson, A. Maycock, D. Smith & A. Walsh, 2026: Predictability of daily North Atlantic-European winter weather fluctuations one month ahead. Nature, submitted.
• You, Q, Z. Cai,, J.A. Screen, H. Chen, R. Zhang, Z. Zuo, R. Lei, J. Cohen, Z, Cong, S. Kang, S. Gulev, G.W.K. Moore, C. Xiao, D. Chen & R. Zhang, 2026: 2025-2026 record lows in Arctic sea ice maxima were driven by extreme North Atlantic ocean warmth. Nature Clim. Change, submitted.
• Han, X., M. Collins, J.A. Screen, H. Yu & P. Zhao, 2026: Arctic sea-ice loss contributes to intensification of summer marine heatwaves over the Northeastern Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., submitted,
• Zhao, J., S. He, Y.J. Orsolini, J.A. Screen, K. Fan, H. Wang & W. Tian, 2026: Winter climate impacts of summer Arctic warming are striongly mediated by the stratosphere. Nature Commun., submitted
• Mudhar, R., W.J.M. Seviour, H.C. Bloomfield, A.H. Butler, C.I. Garfinkel, P. Hitchcock, J.A. Screen & S.I. Thomson, 2026: The influence of sudden stratospheric warmings on extreme European electricity demand. Meteorol. App., accepted.
• Zhang, J., X. Xia, W. Tian, J.A. Screen, M. Xu & X. Long, 2026: Arctic sea-ice loss persistently increases the risk of East Asian baroclinic weather events. Sci. Bull., submitted.
• Fang, Y., J.A. Screen, X. Hu, S. Lin & S. Yang, 2026: Consistent Strengthening of ENSO teleconnection in the Southern Hemisphere across future emission scenarios. Geophys. Res. Lett. in revision.
• Wu, X., X. Tan, J.A. Screen, J.Catto, S. Yuan, B. Xu, X. Liu, T. Liu, L. Ma, B. Liu & X. Chen, 2026: Co-occurrences of multiple storm weather systems accelerate precipitation whiplash events. Sci. Adv., submitted.
• Luu, L, E. Hanna, T. Woollings, X. Fettwies, J.A. Screen, S. Hay & J.l. Catto, 2026: How and why do Greenland blocking patterns vary significantly between different summer months? Environ. Res.: Clim., 5, .
• Yao, M., H. Tang, G. Huang & J.A. Screen, 2026: Antarctic Ozone as a precursor to winter central Asian precipitation beyond ENSO. npj Climate Atmos. Sci., 9, 153.
• Gao, Y., M. Mu, J.A. Screen & G. Dai, 2026: Nonlinear joint rffect of Arctic atmosphere and sea ice on subseasonal prediction of strong and persistent Ural blocking events. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., accepted.
• Zhang, C., J. Zhang, A.C. Maycock, J.A. Screen & X. Zhou, 2026: Barents-Kara sea ice variability drives stronger tropospheric anomalies over East Asia after 2000 due to weakened stratospheric polar vortex. J. Geophys. Res., 131, e2025JD046058.
• Suitters, C.C., J.A. Screen, J.L. Catto, J.M. Jones, S. Li,  A. Orr, A.A. Scaife & H. Tang, 2026: Assessing the likelihood of unprecedented Antarctic heat in the current climate. J. Clim., 39, 4595-4616.
• Walsh, A., J.A. Screen, A.A. Sciafe, D.M. Smith & R. Eade, 2026: Interdependent extratropical atmospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice loss, QBO and ENSO. J. Clim., 39, 3543-3561.
• Xu, M. S, Kang, H. Yang, J.A. Screen, Z. Ji, Y. Peings, J. Yang, Y. Hu, X. Chen & H. Yu, 2026: Far-reaching effects of Tibetan warming amplification on polar sea-ice retreat. Commun. Earth & Environ., 7, 559..
• Tang, H., S. Li, J.M. Jones, S. González-Herrero, A. Orr, F. Otto, J.A. Screen, K. Clem, D. Bozkurt, J.L. Catto, C.C. Suitters, M. Maclennan & Y. Sun, 2026: Unprecedented 2024 East Antarctic winter heatwave driven by polar vortex weakening and amplified by anthropogenic warming. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 9, 122,.
• Cai, Z., Q. You, J.A. Screen, H.W. Chen, R. Zhang, Z. Zuo, D. Chen, J. Cohen, S. Kang, W. Ma, S.K. Gulev, G.W.K. Moore & R. Zhang, 2026: Role of Atlantic multidecadal variability in modulating Arctic sea-ice loss and wetting. Sci. Adv., 12, ady7595. 
• Siew, P.Y.F., Y. Wu & J.A. Screen, 2026: Detectable human influence on reduced day-to-day temperature variability in the cold season driven by Arctic sea-ice loss. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 27, e70005.
• Hay, S., E. Blockley, J.L. Catto, H. Hewitt, Y.T.E. Lo, J.A. Screen, D.M. Smith & H. Yu, 2026: The impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on winter weather in the British Isles. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 152, e70012.
• Screen, J.A., A. Audette, R. Blackport, C. Deser, M. England, N. Feldl, M. Gervais, S. Hay, P. Kushner, Y.-C. Liang, R. Msadek, R. Mudhar, M. Sigmond, D. Smith, L. Sun & H. Yu, 2026: Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments. Commun. Earth & Environ., 7, 23.

2025

• Mudhar, R. W.J. Seviour, J.A. Screen, S.I. Thomson & C. Turrell, 2025: Diverse and weak simulated stratospheric responses to future Arctic sea-ice loss. J. Geophys. Res., e2025JD044403.
• Chan, A.C., M. England, J.A. Screen, T.J. Bracegirdle, E.W. Blockley & C.R. Holmes, 2025: Extreme Antarctic sea ice loss facilitated by negative shift of Southern Annular Mode. Geophys. Res. Lett., e2025GL116688.
• Saurral, R., J.A. Screen & F. Doblas-Reyes, 2025: Model-dependent response of low clouds to Arctic sea-ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett., 52, e2025GL117035.
• Xu, M., S. Kang, J.A. Screen, A. Audette, W. Tian, J. Zhang, H. Yu & H. Zhang, 2025: Ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances Eurasian cooling in response to historical Barents-Kara sea-ice loss. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 8, 318.
• Xu, P., J.A. Screen, L. Wang, T. Woollings, H. Fan, M. Patterson & Z. Dong, 2025: Impact of Asian summer monsoon on the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave: Can it? Did it? Geophys. Res. Lett., 52, e2025GL117205.
• England, M., L.M. Polvani, J.A. Screen & A.C. Chan, 2025: Minimal Arctic sea ice loss in the last 20 years, consistent with internal climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 52, e2025GL116175.
• Grist, J., S.A. Josey, B. Sinha, J.A. Screen, R. Marsh & D. Dey, 2025: The impact of a subpolar North Atlantic freshwater anomaly on Eurasian winter climate. J. Clim. accepted.
• Hay, S., J.L. Catto, J.A. Screen & H. Yu, 2025: The tug-of-war on the storm tracks between sea-ice loss and ocean warming is mainly an Atlantic phenomenon. J. Clim., 38, 4907-4924.
• Saurral, R.I., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, J.A. Screen, J.L. Catto, S.E. Hay & H. Yu, 2025: Western Mediterranean droughts fostered by Arctic sea ice loss. J. Clim., 38, 3005-3014.
• Ball, E., Y.T.E. Lo, P.A.G. Watson, E. Lavigne, J.A. Screen, K. Ye & D. Mitchell, 2025: No detectable decrease in extreme cold-related mortality in Canada from Arctic sea-ice loss. Environ. Res. Lett., 20, 044042.

• Gong, H., L. Wang., J.A. Screen, W. Chen, J. Cohen & R. Wu, 2025: Teleconnection from Arctic warming suppresses long-term warming in central Eurasia. Sci. Adv., 11, eadq946.
• Simpson, I., T. Shaw, P. Ceppi, A. Clement, E. Fischer, K. Grise, A. Pendergrass, J.A. Screen, R. Wills, T. Woollings, R. Blackport, J. Kang & S. Po-Chedley, 2025: Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations. Sci. Adv., 11, eadt8035.
• Yu, H. J.A. Screen, M. Xu, S.E. Hay, W. Qiu & J.L. Catto, 2025: Incomplete Arctic sea-ice recovery under CO₂ removal and its effects on the winter atmospheric circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 52, e2024GL113541.
• Cai, Z., Q. You, J.A. Screen, H.W. Chen, R. Zhang, Z. Zuo, D. Chen, J. Cohen, S. Kang, & R. Zhang, 2025: . Lessened projections of Arctic warming and wetting after correcting for model errors in global warming and sea ice cover. Sci. Adv., 11, eadr6413.

2024

• Luu, L.N., E. Hanna, D. de Alwis Pitts, J. Maddison, J.A. Screen, J.L. Catto & X. Fettweis, 2024: Greenland summer blocking characteristics: an evaluation of a high-resolution multi-model ensemble. Clim. Dyn., 62, 10503-10523.
• Chatterjee, S., T. Semmler, J.A. Screen, T. Furevik, J. Selivanova, R.P. Raj & N. Murukesh, 2024: Atmosphere-ocean-ice feedbacks sustain recent Barents sea-ice loss despite cooler Atlantic Water inflow. J. Clim., 37, 6519-6532.
• Fang, Y., J.A. Screen, X. Hu, S. Lin, N.C. Williams & S. Yang, 2024: CMIP6 models underestimate ENSO teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere. Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL110738. 
• Blackport, R., M. Sigmond & J.A. Screen, 2024: Models and observations agree on fewer and milder midlatitude cold extremes even over recent decades of rapid Arctic warming. Sci. Adv., 10.
• Lewis, N.T., M.R. England, J.A. Screen, R. Geen, W.J.M. Seviour & S.I. Thomson, 2024: Assessing the spurious impacts of ice-constraining methods on the climate response to sea-ice loss using an idealised aquaplanet GCM. J. Clim., accepted.
• Xu, M, J.A. Screen, W. Tian, J. Zhang & C. Zhang, 2024: Influence of future regional sea-ice loss on the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 129, e2023JD040571.
• Yu, H., J.A. Screen, M. Xu, S. Hay & J.L. Catto, 2024: Comparing the atmospheric responses to reduced Arctic sea ice, a warmer ocean, and increased CO₂ and their contributions to projected change at 2 °C global warming. J. Clim., accepted.
• Collins, M., J.D. Beverley, T. Bracegirdle, J. Catto, M. McCrystall, A. Dittus, N. Freychet, J. Grist, G. Hegerl, P. Holland, C. Holmes, S. Josey, M. Joshi, E. Hawkins, E. Lo, N. Lord, D. Mitchell, P.-A. Monerie, M.D.K. Priestley, A. Scaife, J.A. Screen, N. Senior, D. Sexton, E. Shuckburgh, S. Siegert, C. Simpson, D.B. Stephenson, R. Sutton, V. Thompson, L. Wilcox & T. Woollings, 2024: Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights on a warming world. Front. Sci., 2.
• Fang, Y., S. Yang, X. Hu, S. Lin & J.A. Screen, 2024: Remote forcing for a circulation pattern favourable to surface melt over the Ross Ice Shelf. J. Clim, 37, 4689-4702.
• Maddison, J., J.L. Catto, E. Hanna, L. Luu & J.A. Screen, 2024: Missing increase in summer Greenland blocking in climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL108505.
• Mudhar, R., W.J.M. Seviour, J.A. Screen, R. Geen, N.T. Lewis & S.I. Thomson, 2024: Exploring mechanisms for model-dependency of the stratospheric response to Arctic warming. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos, 129, e2023JD040416.
• Hay, S., J.A. Screen & J.L. Catto, 2024: Steady but model dependent Arctic Amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections. Environ. Res.: Climate, 3, 031003.
• Weisheimer, A., L.H. Baker, J. Bröcker, C.I. Garfinkel, S.C. Hardiman, D.L.R. Hodson, T.N. Palmer, J.I. Robson, A.A. Scaife, J.A. Screen, T.G. Shepherd, D.M. Smith & R.T. Sutton, 2024: The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 105, E651-E659.
• Lewis, N.T., W.J.M. Seviour, H. Roberts-Straw & J.A. Screen, 2024: The response of midlatitude surface temperature persistence to Arctic sea-ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett., e2023GL106863.
• Cottrell, F.M., J.A. Screen & A.A. Scaife, 2024: Signal-to-noise errors in free-running atmospheric simulations and their dependence on model resolution. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 25, e1212.
• Williams, N., A.A. Scaife & J.A. Screen, 2024: Effect of increased ocean resolution on model errors in ENSO and its teleconnections. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 150, 1489-1500.
• Ye, K, T. Woollings, S.N. Sparrow, P. Watson & J.A. Screen, 2024: Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci, 7, 20.
• Oltmanns, M., N.P. Holliday, J.A. Screen, D.G. Evans, S.A. Josey & B. Moat, 2024: European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater events in preceding years. Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 109–132.
• Cai, Z., Q. You, H.W. Chen, R. Zhang, Z. Zuo, D. Chen, J. Cohen & J.A. Screen, 2024: Assessing Arctic wetting: performance of CMIP6 models and projections of future precipitation changes. Atmos. Res., 297, 107124.
• Liang, Y-C., Y-O. Kwon, C. Frankignoul, G. Gastineau, K.L. Smith, L.M. Polvani, L. Sun, Y. Peings, C. Deser, R. Zhang & J.A. Screen, 2024: The weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and the subsequent surface impacts as consequences to Arctic sea-ice loss. J. Clim., 37, 309-333.

• Delhaye, S., F. Massonnet, T. Fichefet, R. Msadek, L. Terray & J.A. Screen, 2024: Dominant role of early winter Barents–Kara sea ice extent anomalies in subsequent atmospheric circulation changes in CMIP6 models. Clim. Dyn., 62, 2755-2778. 

2023

• Geen, R., S.I. Thomson, J.A. Screen, R. Blackport, N.T. Lewis, R. Mudhar, W.J.M. Seviour & G.K. Vallis, 2023: An explanation for the metric dependence of the midlatitude jet-waviness change in response to polar warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105132.
• Zheng, C., Y. Wu, M. Ting, J.A. Screen & P. Zhang, 2023: Diverse Eurasian temperature responses to Arctic sea ice loss in models due to varying balance between dynamical cooling and thermodynamical warming. J. Clim., 36, 8347-8364.
• Hay, S., M. Priestley, H. Yu, J.L. Catto & J.A. Screen, 2023: The effect of Arctic sea-ice loss on extratropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL102840.
• Morten, J., P. Buchanan, C. Egevang, I. Glissenaar, S. Maxwell, N. Parr, J.A. Screen, F. Vigfusdottir, N. Vogt-Vincent, D. Williams, N. Williams, M. Witt, W. Thurston, & L. Hawkes, 2023: Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration. Global Change Biology, 29, 5596-5614.
• Warner, J., J.A. Screen, A.A. Sciafe, A. Maidens & J. Knight, 2023: Tropical forcing of Barents-Kara sea ice during autumn. Geophys. Res. Lett., e2023GL102768.
• Yu, H., J.A. Screen, S. Hay, J.L. Catto & M. Xu, 2023: Winter precipitation responses to Arctic sea-ice loss and global ocean warming and their opposing influences over northeast Atlantic region. J. Clim., 36, 4951-4966.
• Williams, N., A.A. Scaife & J.A. Screen, 2023: Underpredicted ENSO teleconnections in seasonal forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL101689.
• Xu, M., W. Tian, J. Zhang, J.A. Screen, C. Zhang & Z. Wang, 2023: Important role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming in response to sea-ice loss. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 6, 9.
• Ye, K, T. Woollings & J.A. Screen, 2023: European winter climate response to projected Arctic sea-ice loss strongly shaped by change in the North Atlantic jet. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102005.
• Lo, Y.T.E., D. Mitchell, P.A.G. Watson & J.A. Screen, 2023: Changes in winter temperature extremes from future Arctic sea-ice loss and ocean warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102542.

2022

• Screen, J.A., R. Eade, D.M. Smith, S. Thomson & H. Yu, 2022: Net equatorward shift of the jet streams when the contribution from sea-ice loss is constrained by observed eddy feedback. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100523.
• Walsh, A, J.A. Screen, A.A. Scaife & D. Smith, 2022: Non-linear response of the extratropics to tropical climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100416.
• Zhang, T., K. van der Wiel, T. Wei, J.A. Screen, X. Yue, B. Zheng, F. Selten, R. Bintanja, W. Anderson, R. Blackport, S. Glomsrod, Y. Liu, X. Cui & X. Yang, 2022: Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2 °C global warming. One Earth, 5, 907-916.
• Zhang, R. & J.A. Screen, 2022: Arctic and Pacific Ocean conditions were favourable for cold extremes over Eurasia and North America during winter 2020/21. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E2285-E2301.
• Ayres, H.C, J.A. Screen, E. Blockley & T.J. Bracegirdle, 2022: The coupled atmosphere-ocean response to Antarctic sea-ice loss. J. Clim., 35, 4665-4685.
• Hay, S., P.J. Kushner, R. Blackport, K.E. McCusker, T. Oudar, L. Sun, M. England, C. Deser, J.A. Screen & L. Polvani, 2022: Separating the influences of low-latitude warming and sea-ice loss on Northern Hemisphere climate change. J. Clim., 35, 2327-2349.
• Blackport, R., J.C. Fyfe & J.A. Screen, 2022: Arctic change reduces risk of cold extremes. Science, 375, 729.
• Smith, D., R. Eade, M. Andrews, H. Ayres, A. Clark, S. Chripko, C. Deser, N. Dunstone, J. Garcia-Serrano, G. Gastineau, L. Graff, S. Hardiman, B. He, L. Hermanson, T. Jung, J. Knight, X. Levine, G. Magnusdottir, E. Manzini, D. Matei, M. Mori, R. Msadek, P. Ortega, Y. Peings, A. Scaife, J.A. Screen, M. Seabrook, T. Semmler, M. Sigmond, J. Streffing, L. Sun & A. Walsh, 2022: Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss. Nature Commun., 13, 727.