Overview

I hold a joint position, as a Senior lecturer in the Maths department and Global Systems Institute, and as a climate scientist at the Met Office. My research interests include climate change and climate modelling, tropical meteorology, application of artificial neural networks to weather and climate, and climate change communication.

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Publications

_{Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.}

| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |

2024

• Trancoso R, Syktus J, Allan RP, Croke J, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Chadwick R. (2024) Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population, Nature Communications, volume 15, no. 1, article no. 483, DOI:10.1038/s41467-023-44513-3. [PDF]

2023

• Kahana R, Halladay K, Alves LM, Chadwick R, Hartley AJ. (2023) Future precipitation projections for Brazil and tropical South America from a Convection-permitting climate simulation, DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3581208/v1.
• Smith C, Robertson E, Chadwick R, Kelley DI, Argles APK, Coelho CAS, de Souza DC, Kubota PY, Talamoni IL, Spracklen DV. (2023) Observed and simulated local climate responses to tropical deforestation, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, volume 18, no. 10, article no. ARTN 104004, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/acf0da. [PDF]
• Mutton H, Chadwick R, Collins M, Lambert FH, Taylor CM, Geen R, Todd A. (2023) The impact of a uniform ocean warming on the West African monsoon, Climate Dynamics, volume 62, no. 1, pages 103-122, DOI:10.1007/s00382-023-06898-1. [PDF]
• García‐Franco JL, Gray LJ, Osprey S, Jaison AM, Chadwick R, Lin J. (2023) Understanding the Mechanisms for Tropical Surface Impacts of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, volume 128, no. 15, DOI:10.1029/2023jd038474.
• Zilli MT, Hart NCG, Coelho CAS, Chadwick R, de Souza DC, Kubota PY, Figueroa SN, Cavalcanti IFA. (2023) Characteristics of tropical–extratropical cloud bands over tropical and subtropical South America simulated by BAM‐1.2 and HadGEM3‐GC3.1, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 149, no. 753, pages 1498-1519, DOI:10.1002/qj.4470.
• Garcia-Franco JL, Gray LJ, Osprey SM, Chadwick R, Lin J. (2023) Understanding the mechanisms for tropical surface impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), DOI:10.22541/essoar.167397478.85358799/v1.

2022

• Firpo MÂF, dos Santos Guimarães B, Dantas LG, da Silva MGB, Alves LM, Chadwick R, Llopart MP, de Oliveira GS. (2022) Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil, Frontiers in Climate, volume 4, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2022.948499.
• García-Franco JL, Chadwick R, Gray LJ, Osprey S, Adams DK. (2022) Revisiting mechanisms of the Mesoamerican Midsummer drought, Climate Dynamics, volume 60, no. 1-2, pages 549-569, DOI:10.1007/s00382-022-06338-6. [PDF]
• García-Franco JL, Gray LJ, Osprey S, Chadwick R, Martin Z. (2022) The tropical route of QBO teleconnections in a climate model, volume 2022, pages 1-27, DOI:10.5194/wcd-2022-14.
• García-Franco JL, Chadwick R, Gray L, Osprey S, Adams DK. (2022) Revisiting mechanisms of the Mesoamerican Midsummer drought, DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1351433/v1.
• Mutton H, Chadwick R, Collins M, Lambert FH, Geen R, Todd A, Taylor CM. (2022) The Impact of the Direct Radiative Effect of Increased CO2 on the West African Monsoon, Journal of Climate, pages 1-53, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0340.1.

2021

• Beverley JD, Collins M, Lambert FH, Chadwick R. (2021) Future Changes to El Niño Teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America, Journal of Climate, pages 1-43, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0877.1. [PDF]
• Huang Y, Ren H-L, Chadwick R, Deng Y. (2021) Decomposition of projected summer rainfall change over East Asia based on timeslice experiments, Climate Dynamics, volume 56, no. 7-8, pages 2531-2549, DOI:10.1007/s00382-020-05602-x. [PDF]
• Andrews T, Smith CJ, Myhre G, Forster PM, Chadwick R, Ackerley D. (2021) Effective Radiative Forcing in a GCM With Fixed Surface Temperatures, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, volume 126, no. 4, DOI:10.1029/2020JD033880.

2020

• Andrews T, Smith CJ, Myhre G, Forster P, Chadwick R. (2020) Effective radiative forcing in a GCM with fixed surface temperatures, DOI:10.1002/essoar.10504260.1.
• Andrews T, Smith CJ, Myhre G, Forster P, Chadwick R, Ackerley D. (2020) Effective radiative forcing in a GCM with fixed surface temperatures, DOI:10.1002/essoar.10504260.2.
• Beverley J, Collins M, Lambert H, Chadwick R. (2020) Future changes in ENSO teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America in CMIP6 simulations, DOI:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8916. [PDF]
• Fereday DR, Chadwick R, Knight JR, Scaife AA. (2020) Tropical Rainfall Linked to Stronger Future ENSO-NAO Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 47, no. 22, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088664.
• Alves LM, Chadwick R, Moise A, Brown J, Marengo JA. (2020) Assessment of rainfall variability and future change in Brazil across multiple timescales, International Journal of Climatology, volume 41, no. S1, DOI:10.1002/joc.6818. [PDF]
• Stassen C, Dommenget D, Chadwick R. (2020) Conceptual deconstruction of the simulated precipitation response to climate change, Climate Dynamics, volume 55, no. 3-4, pages 613-630, DOI:10.1007/s00382-020-05286-3. [PDF]
• Good P, Chadwick R, Holloway C, Kennedy J, Lowe J, Roehrig R, Rushley S. (2020) High sensitivity of tropical precipitation to local sea-surface temperature, Nature, volume {}, pages {}-{}, DOI:10.1038/s41586-020-2887-3. [PDF]
• Ren H-L, Huang Y, Chadwick R, Deng Y. (2020) Decomposing East-Asian winter temperature and monsoonal circulation changes using timeslice experiments, Climate Dynamics, volume 54, no. 3-4, pages 2297-2315, DOI:10.1007/s00382-019-05114-3. [PDF]
• Saint-Lu M, Chadwick R, Lambert FH, Collins M, Boutle I, Whitall M, Daleu C. (2020) Influences of Local and Remote Conditions on Tropical Precipitation and Its Response to Climate Change, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 33, no. 10, pages 4045-4063, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0450.1. [PDF]

2019

• Chadwick R, Ackerley D, Ogura T, Dommenget D. (2019) Separating the Influences of Land Warming, the Direct CO 2 Effect, the Plant Physiological Effect, and SST Warming on Regional Precipitation Changes, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, volume 124, no. 2, pages 624-640, DOI:10.1029/2018JD029423.
• Saint‐Lu M, Chadwick R, Lambert FH, Collins M. (2019) Surface Warming and Atmospheric Circulation Dominate Rainfall Changes Over Tropical Rainforests Under Global Warming, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 46, no. 22, pages 13410-13419, DOI:10.1029/2019gl085295. [PDF]

2018

• Ackerley D, Chadwick R, Dommenget D, Petrelli P. (2018) An ensemble of AMIP simulations with prescribed land surface temperatures, pages 1-26, DOI:10.5194/gmd-2018-77.
• Ackerley D, Chadwick R, Dommenget D, Petrelli P. (2018) An ensemble of AMIP simulations with prescribed land surface temperatures, Geoscientific Model Development, volume 11, no. 9, pages 3865-3881, DOI:10.5194/gmd-11-3865-2018. [PDF]
• Huang Y, Ren H-L, Chadwick R, Cheng Z, Chen Q. (2018) Diagnosing Changes of Winter NAO in Response to Different Climate Forcings in a Set of Atmosphere-Only Timeslice Experiments, Atmosphere, volume 9, no. 1, pages 10-10, DOI:10.3390/atmos9010010. [PDF]
• Ma J, Chadwick R, Seo K-H, Dong C, Huang G, Foltz GR, Jiang JH. (2018) Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, volume 46, no. 1, pages 549-580, DOI:10.1146/annurev-earth-082517-010102. [PDF]
• Rowell DP, Chadwick R. (2018) Causes of the Uncertainty in Projections of Tropical Terrestrial Rainfall Change: East Africa, Journal of Climate, volume 31, no. 15, pages 5977-5995, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0830.1. [PDF]
• Kamae Y, Chadwick R, Ackerley D, Ringer M, Ogura T. (2018) Seasonally variant low cloud adjustment over cool oceans, Climate Dynamics, volume 52, no. 9-10, pages 5801-5817, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4478-7. [PDF]
• Lazenby MJ, Todd MC, Chadwick R, Wang Y. (2018) Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 31, no. 12, pages 4807-4826, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0311.1. [PDF]
• Fereday D, Chadwick R, Knight J, Scaife AA. (2018) Atmospheric dynamics is the largest source of uncertainty in future winter European rainfall, Journal of Climate, volume 31, no. 3, pages 963-977, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0048.1.

2017

• Skinner CB, Poulsen CJ, Chadwick R, Diffenbaugh NS, Fiorella RP. (2017) The Role of Plant CO₂ Physiological Forcing in Shaping Future Daily-Scale Precipitation, Journal of Climate, volume 30, no. 7, pages 2319-2340, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0603.1. [PDF]
• Chadwick R, Douville H, Skinner CB. (2017) Timeslice experiments for understanding regional climate projections: applications to the tropical hydrological cycle and European winter circulation, Climate Dynamics, volume 49, no. 9-10, pages 3011-3029, DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3488-6.
• Chadwick R, Martin GM, Copsey D, Bellon G, Caian M, Codron F, Rio C, Roehrig R. (2017) Examining the West African Monsoon circulation response to atmospheric heating in a GCM dynamical core, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, volume 9, no. 1, pages 149-167, DOI:10.1002/2016MS000728.
• Collins M, Todd A, Lambert H, Chadwick R. (2017) Diagnosing ENSO and global warming tropical precipitation shifts using 2 surface relative humidity and temperature, Journal of Climate.
• Webb MJ, Andrews T, Bodas-Salcedo A, Bony S, Bretherton CS, Chadwick R, Chepfer H, Douville H, Good P, Kay JE. (2017) The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6, GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, volume 10, no. 1, pages 359-384, DOI:10.5194/gmd-10-359-2017. [PDF]

2016

• Webb MJ, Andrews T, Bodas-Salcedo A, Bony S, Bretherton CS, Chadwick R, Chepfer H, Douville H, Good P, Kay JE. (2016) The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6, volume 0, pages 1-27, DOI:10.5194/gmd-2016-70.
• Good P, Andrews T, Chadwick R, Dufresne JL, Gregory JM, Lowe JA, Schaller N, Shiogama H. (2016) The nonlinMIP intercomparison project: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles, volume 0, pages 1-30, DOI:10.5194/gmd-2016-56.
• Chadwick R. (2016) Which Aspects of CO2 Forcing and SST Warming Cause Most Uncertainty in Projections of Tropical Rainfall Change over Land and Ocean?, Journal of Climate, volume 29, no. 7, pages 2493-2509, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0777.1. [PDF]
• Chadwick R, Good P, Willett K. (2016) A Simple Moisture Advection Model of Specific Humidity Change over Land in Response to SST Warming, Journal of Climate, volume 29, no. 21, pages 7613-7632, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0241.1. [PDF]
• Good P, Andrews T, Chadwick R, Dufresne J-L, Gregory JM, Lowe JA, Schaller N, Shiogama H. (2016) nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0), Geoscientific Model Development, volume 9, no. 11, pages 4019-4028, DOI:10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016. [PDF]
• Good P, Booth BBB, Chadwick R, Hawkins E, Jonko A, Lowe JA. (2016) Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming, Nature Communications, volume 7, no. 1, article no. 13667, DOI:10.1038/ncomms13667. [PDF]
• Chadwick R. (2016) Sub-tropical drying explained, Nature Climate Change, volume 7, no. 1, pages 10-11, DOI:10.1038/nclimate3167. [PDF]
• Senior CA, Andrews T, Burton C, Chadwick R, Copsey D, Graham T, Hyder P, Jackson L, McDonald R, Ridley J. (2016) Idealized climate change simulations with a high-resolution physical model: HadGEM3-GC2, JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS, volume 8, no. 2, pages 813-830, DOI:10.1002/2015MS000614. [PDF]

2015

• Good P, Lowe JA, Andrews T, Wiltshire A, Chadwick R, Ridley JK, Menary MB, Bouttes N, Dufresne JL, Gregory JM. (2015) Erratum: Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations (Nature Clim. Change (2015) 5, (138-142)), Nature Climate Change, volume 5, no. 2.
• Good P, Lowe JA, Andrews T, Wiltshire A, Chadwick R, Ridley J-K, Menary MB, Bouttes N, Dufresne JL, Gregory JM. (2015) Erratum: Corrigendum: Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations, Nature Climate Change, volume 5, no. 3, pages 280-280, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2546.
• Good P, Lowe JA, Andrews T, Wiltshire A, Chadwick R, Ridley JK, Menary MB, Bouttes N, Dufresne JL, Gregory JM. (2015) Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations, Nature Climate Change, volume 5, no. 2, pages 138-142, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2498. [PDF]
• Chadwick R, Good P, Martin G, Rowell DP. (2015) Large rainfall changes consistently projected over substantial areas of tropical land, Nature Climate Change, volume 6, no. 2, pages 177-181, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2805. [PDF]
• Kent C, Chadwick R, Rowell DP. (2015) Understanding Uncertainties in Future Projections of Seasonal Tropical Precipitation, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 28, no. 11, pages 4390-4413, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00613.1. [PDF]
• Hegerl GC, Black E, Allan RP, Ingram WJ, Polson D, Trenberth KE, Chadwick RS, Arkin PA, Sarojini BB, Becker A. (2015) CHALLENGES IN QUANTIFYING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 96, no. 7, pages 1097-1115, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1. [PDF]

2014

• Chadwick R, Good P, Andrews T, Martin G. (2014) Surface warming patterns drive tropical rainfall pattern responses to CO₂ forcing on all timescales, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 41, no. 2, pages 610-615, DOI:10.1002/2013gl058504. [PDF]
• Tarnavsky E, Grimes D, Maidment R, Black E, Allan RP, Stringer M, Chadwick R, Kayitakire F. (2014) Extension of the TAMSAT Satellite-Based Rainfall Monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to Present, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, volume 53, no. 12, pages 2805-2822, DOI:10.1175/jamc-d-14-0016.1. [PDF]
• Wilfried PM, Bain CL, Chadwick RS, Graham R, Sonwa DJ, Kamga FM. (2014) Identification of Processes Driving Low-Level Westerlies in West Equatorial Africa, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 27, no. 11, pages 4245-4262, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00490.1. [PDF]

2013

• Chadwick R, Boutle I, Martin G. (2013) Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Change in CMIP5: Why the Rich Do Not Get Richer in the Tropics, Journal of Climate, volume 26, no. 11, pages 3803-3822, DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00543.1. [PDF]
• Chadwick R, Good P. (2013) Understanding nonlinear tropical precipitation responses to CO₂ forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 40, no. 18, pages 4911-4915, DOI:10.1002/grl.50932. [PDF]

2012

• Chadwick R, Grimes D. (2012) An Artificial Neural Network Approach to Multispectral Rainfall Estimation over Africa, Journal of Hydrometeorology, volume 13, no. 3, pages 913-931, DOI:10.1175/jhm-d-11-081.1.
• Chadwick R, Wu P, Good P, Andrews T. (2012) Asymmetries in tropical rainfall and circulation patterns in idealised CO2 removal experiments, Climate Dynamics, volume 40, no. 1-2, pages 295-316, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1287-2.

2011

• Chadwick R, Coppola E, Giorgi F. (2011) An artificial neural network technique for downscaling GCM outputs to RCM spatial scale, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, volume 18, no. 6, pages 1013-1028, DOI:10.5194/npg-18-1013-2011.

2010

• Chadwick RS, Grimes DIF, Saunders RW, Francis PN, Blackmore TA. (2010) The TAMORA algorithm: satellite rainfall estimates over West Africa using multi-spectral SEVIRI data, Advances in Geosciences, volume 25, pages 3-9, DOI:10.5194/adgeo-25-3-2010.

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