Overview

Research

Analysing the performance of predictions such as weather forecasts or medical diagnoses helps forecasters to improve their predictions and helps recipients to decide how to respond to predictions. My research aims at providing detailed insights into predictive performance. The statistical tools that I develop are applicable in many fields but my main interests are in weather forecasting and climate prediction. I am particularly interested in developing ways to answer the following questions.

• How good are predictions of extreme events?
• How good are predictions of multi-dimensional events?
• How does performance vary with spatial and temporal scales?
• How does performance vary with the conditions under which the forecast is made?
• How can we assess performance when the outcome is uncertain?
• How can we efficiently design and improve prediction systems?

My research lies at the interface between probability theory, statistical inference and data analysis. If you are interested in doing a PhD in this area then please contact me.

Career

I received my PhD in Statistics from Lancaster University and worked for four years in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading before joining Exeter in 2007. I held a research fellowship with the National Centre for Atmospheric Science from 2004 to 2008. I am a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and an Associate Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society. I received the LF Richardson Prize from the Royal Meteorological Society in 2015 for my work on analysing ensemble forecasts.

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Publications

_{Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder.}

| 2023 | 2020 | 2019 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |

2023

• Allen S, Ferro CAT, Kwasniok F. (2023) Erratum to ‘A conditional decomposition of proper scores: quantifying the sources of information in a forecast’, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 149, no. 757, pages 3765-3765, DOI:10.1002/qj.4565.

2020

• Allen S, Ferro C, Kwasniok F. (2020) Recalibrating wind speed forecasts using regime-dependent Ensemble Model Output Statistics, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 146, DOI:10.1002/qj.3806. [PDF]

2019

• Ben Bouallegue Z, Ferro C, Leutbecher M, Richardson D. (2019) Predictive verification for the design of partially exchangeable multi-model ensembles, Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, volume 72, DOI:10.1080/16000870.2019.1697165.
• Allen S, Ferro CAT, Kwasniok F. (2019) Regime-dependent statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 145, no. 725, pages 3535-3552, DOI:10.1002/qj.3638.
• Siegert S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Leutbecher M. (2019) The ensemble-adjusted Ignorance Score for forecasts issued as normal distributions, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 145, no. S1, pages 129-139, DOI:10.1002/qj.3447.

2017

• Ferro CAT. (2017) Measuring forecast performance in the presence of observation error, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, volume 143, no. 708, pages 2665-2676, DOI:10.1002/qj.3115.
• Mitchell K, Ferro CAT. (2017) Proper scoring rules for interval probabilistic forecasts, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 143, no. 704, pages 1597-1607, DOI:10.1002/qj.3029. [PDF]

2016

• Sansom PG, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Goddard L, Mason SJ. (2016) Best practices for post-processing ensemble climate forecasts, part I: selecting appropriate recalibration methods, Journal of Climate, volume 29, pages 7247-7264, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0868.1.

2015

• Economou T, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT. (2015) Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1501.06377.
• Watson J, Challinor AJ, Fricker TE, Ferro CAT. (2015) Comparing the effects of calibration and climate errors on a statistical crop model and a process-based crop model, CLIMATIC CHANGE, volume 132, no. 1, pages 93-109, DOI:10.1007/s10584-014-1264-3. [PDF]
• Otto FEL, Ferro CAT, Fricker TE, Suckling EB. (2015) On judging the credibility of climate predictions, CLIMATIC CHANGE, volume 132, no. 1, pages 47-60, DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0813-5. [PDF]

2014

• Siegert S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2014) Evaluating ensemble forecasts by the Ignorance score -- Correcting the finite-ensemble bias, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1410.8249.
• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Roberts NM, Ferro CAT. (2014) The Value of High-Resolution Met Office Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of Multihourly Precipitation Extremes, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 27, no. 16, pages 6155-6174, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00723.1. [PDF]
• Ferro CAT. (2014) Fair scores for ensemble forecasts, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 140, no. 683, pages 1917-1923, DOI:10.1002/qj.2270. [PDF]
• Economou T, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT. (2014) SPATIO-TEMPORAL MODELLING OF EXTREME STORMS, ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS, volume 8, no. 4, pages 2223-2246, DOI:10.1214/14-AOAS766. [PDF]
• Williams RM, Ferro CAT, Kwasniok F. (2014) A comparison of ensemble post-processing methods for extreme events, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 140, no. 680, pages 1112-1120, DOI:10.1002/qj.2198. [PDF]

2013

• Yip S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Hawkins E. (2013) Reply to "Comments on 'A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions'", JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 26, no. 12, pages 4377-4377, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00858.1. [PDF]
• Sansom PG, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT, Zappa G, Shaffrey L. (2013) Simple Uncertainty Frameworks for Selecting Weighting Schemes and Interpreting Multimodel Ensemble Climate Change Experiments, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 26, no. 12, pages 4017-4037, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00462.1. [PDF]
• Fricker TE, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2013) Three recommendations for evaluating climate predictions, METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, volume 20, no. 2, pages 246-255, DOI:10.1002/met.1409. [PDF]
• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2013) Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 41, no. 5-6, pages 1475-1495, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1568-9. [PDF]
• Hawkins E, Fricker TE, Challinor AJ, Ferro CAT, Ho CK, Osborne TM. (2013) Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, volume 19, no. 3, pages 937-947, DOI:10.1111/gcb.12069. [PDF]
• Goddard L, Kumar A, Solomon A, Smith D, Boer G, Gonzalez P, Kharin V, Merryfield W, Deser C, Mason SJ. (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, volume 40, no. 1-2, pages 245-272, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2. [PDF]

2012

• Ferro CAT, Fricker TE. (2012) A bias-corrected decomposition of the Brier score, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 138, no. 668, pages 1954-1960, DOI:10.1002/qj.1924. [PDF]
• Ferro CAT, Jupp TE, Lambert FH, Huntingford C, Cox PM. (2012) Model complexity versus ensemble size: allocating resources for climate prediction, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, volume 370, no. 1962, pages 1087-1099, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2011.0307. [PDF]
• Ho CK, Stephenson DB, Collins M, Ferro CAT, Brown SJ. (2012) Calibration Strategies A Source of Additional Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 93, no. 1, pages 21-26, DOI:10.1175/2011BAMS3110.1. [PDF]

2011

• Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2011) Deterministic forecasts of extreme events and warnings, Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, Wiley, 185-202. [PDF]
• Yip S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Hawkins E. (2011) A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 24, no. 17, pages 4634-4643, DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1. [PDF]
• Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2011) Extremal Dependence Indices: Improved Verification Measures for Deterministic Forecasts of Rare Binary Events, WEATHER AND FORECASTING, volume 26, no. 5, pages 699-713, DOI:10.1175/WAF-D-10-05030.1. [PDF]

2010

• Hogan RJ, Ferro CAT, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2010) Equitability Revisited: Why the "Equitable Threat Score" Is Not Equitable, WEATHER AND FORECASTING, volume 25, no. 2, pages 710-726, DOI:10.1175/2009WAF2222350.1. [PDF]

2009

• Primo C, Ferro CAT, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2009) Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, volume 137, no. 3, pages 1142-1149, DOI:10.1175/2008MWR2579.1. [PDF]
• Hanel M, Buishand TA, Ferro CAT. (2009) A nonstationary index flood model for precipitation extremes in transient regional climate model simulations, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 114, article no. ARTN D15107, DOI:10.1029/2009JD011712. [PDF]
• Robert CY, Segers J, Ferro CAT. (2009) A sliding blocks estimator for the extremal index, ELECTRONIC JOURNAL OF STATISTICS, volume 3, pages 993-1020, DOI:10.1214/08-EJS345. [PDF]
• Vitolo R, Holland MP, Ferro CAT. (2009) Robust extremes in chaotic deterministic systems, CHAOS, volume 19, no. 4, article no. ARTN 043127, DOI:10.1063/1.3270389. [PDF]

2008

• Robert CY, Segers J, Ferro CAT. (2008) A Sliding Blocks Estimator for the Extremal Index, DOI:10.48550/arxiv.0812.4233.
• Coelho CAS, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Steinskog DJ. (2008) Methods for exploring spatial and temporal variability of extreme events in climate data, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 21, no. 10, pages 2072-2092, DOI:10.1175/2007JCLI1781.1. [PDF]
• Brown SJ, Caesar J, Ferro CAT. (2008) Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, volume 113, no. D5, article no. ARTN D05115, DOI:10.1029/2006JD008091. [PDF]
• Stephenson DB, Casati B, Ferro CAT, Wilson CA. (2008) The extreme dependency score: a non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events, METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, volume 15, no. 1, pages 41-50, DOI:10.1002/met.53. [PDF]
• Ferro CAT, Richardson DS, Weigel AP. (2008) On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores, METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, volume 15, no. 1, pages 19-24, DOI:10.1002/met.45. [PDF]

2007

• Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2007) Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures, AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT, volume 119, no. 1-2, pages 190-204, DOI:10.1016/j.agee.2006.07.009. [PDF]
• Shongwe ME, Ferro CAT, Coelho CAS, Van Oldenborgh GJ. (2007) Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, volume 135, no. 12, pages 4185-4201, DOI:10.1175/2007MWR2094.1. [PDF]
• Ferro CAT. (2007) Comparing Probabilistic forecasting systems with the brier score, WEATHER AND FORECASTING, volume 22, no. 5, pages 1076-1088, DOI:10.1175/WAF1034.1. [PDF]
• Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CAT, Frei C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylha K, Koffi B. (2007) Future extreme events in European climate:: an exploration of regional climate model projections, CLIMATIC CHANGE, volume 81, pages 71-95, DOI:10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z. [PDF]
• Ferro CAT. (2007) A probability model for verifying deterministic forecasts of extreme events, WEATHER AND FORECASTING, volume 22, no. 5, pages 1089-1100, DOI:10.1175/WAF1036.1. [PDF]

2006

• Mailier PJ, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT, Hodges KI. (2006) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, volume 134, no. 8, pages 2224-2240, DOI:10.1175/MWR3160.1. [PDF]

2005

• McGregor GR, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2005) Projected changes in extreme weather and climate events in Europe, 13-23, DOI:10.1007/3-540-28862-7_2. [PDF]
• Ferro CAT, Hannachi A, Stephenson DB. (2005) Simple nonparametric techniques for exploring changing probability distributions of weather, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, volume 18, no. 21, pages 4344-4354, DOI:10.1175/JCLI3518.1. [PDF]

2004

• Ferro CAT, Segers J. (2004) Extremes of stationary time series, Statistics of Extremes: Theory and Applications, Wiley, 369-428.

2003

• Ferro CAT, Segers J. (2003) Inference for clusters of extreme values, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY, volume 65, pages 545-556, DOI:10.1111/1467-9868.00401. [PDF]

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